The first days of October were marked by an extreme weather event: storm Alex, a cyclone of Atlantic origin, caused massive showers and thunderstorms over Provence, the Alps, Piedmont and Liguria. In these regions, numerous historical records of precipitation were broken causing the flooding of several streams and rivers in which many people lost their lives. Economic damage was also significant a ...[Read More]
Perspectives on Climate Science: from historical developments to research frontiers
Breaking news: a bizarre early-September snowstorm dumped snow from Montana to New Mexico, a medicane hit Southern Italian regions and Greece, heatwaves and droughts are expected to increase in the future… These extreme events are becoming more and more frequent and one question spontaneously arises: is climate change making the weather more extreme? This is one of the reasons why climate change i ...[Read More]
NPG Paper of the Month: “Beyond univariate calibration: verifying spatial structure in ensembles of forecast fields”
Example binary exceedance verification field and a subset of ensemble fields with representative FTE histogram for threshold τ=0 found using 5000 samples. Dark blue regions indicate threshold exceedance. All verification fields have correlation length a0=2 and ensemble fields have correlation length aM=1,2,3 in rows A, B, and C, respectively. FTE histograms are density histograms with dotted line y=1 and corresponding β-score (left) and β-bias (right) annotated. License: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-411-2020.
The August 2020 NPG Paper of the Month award goes to Josh Jacobson and colleagues for their paper “Beyond univariate calibration: verifying spatial structure in ensembles of forecast fields” (https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-411-2020). The ability to know the future has long been sought after and coveted. Yet, in contrast to prophecies and crystal balls, modern methods of prediction are ...[Read More]
NPG Paper of the Month: “Simulation-based comparison of multivariate ensemble post-processing methods”
Exemplary results for three variants of one of the simulation settings. Boxplots show comparisons to the standard ECC approach, with positive values indicating improvements in performance, measured in terms of two multivariate evaluation functions. The horizontal gray stripe indicates a region where differences in performance are not statistically significant with respect to the Diebold-Mariano (DM) test.
License: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-349-2020.
The June 2020 NPG Paper of the Month award goes to Sebastian Lerch and colleagues for their paper “Simulation-based comparison of multivariate ensemble post-processing methods” (https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-349-2020). Sebastian Lerch is a researcher at the Faculty of Mathematics of the Karlsruhe Institute Technology (KIT). He has a background in mathematics and statistics, his resear ...[Read More]