NP
Nonlinear Processes in Geosciences

EGU blog

NPG Paper of the Month “Anthropocene climate bifurcation”

September 24, 2020
NPG Paper of the Month “Anthropocene climate bifurcation”
Arctic surface temperature change projected to year 2300 (relative to year 2000 mean temperature of -28.90 °C), with linearly increasing ocean heat transport F_O . (a) With constant F_A = 104 W/m2, there is a jump in temperature for RCP 8.5 but not for the other choices of RCP. (b) The same as (a) except that in addition to increasing F_O , the atmosphere heat transport F_A also increases linearly from 104 to 129 W/m2 . Now upward transitions occur on both RCP 8.5 and 6.0, as indicated by the arrows. License: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-391-2020.

The July 2020 NPG Paper of the Month award goes to Kolja Kypke, William Langford and Allan Willms, for their paper “Anthropocene climate bifurcation” (https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-391-2020). All three authors work at the University of Guelph, in Guelph, Ontario, Canada. William Langford did his PhD at the California Institute of Technology in 1971 under the supervision of Herbert Kel ...[Read More]

Is climate change making the weather more extreme?

September 11, 2020
Is climate change making the weather more extreme?
NOAA PSL weather forecasts of temperature anomaly at 850hPa (~1500m.a.s.l.) shows a deep negative anomaly on Central US, leading to snowfalls. Credits: NOAA.

Denver, Sept. 06: it is midday and Jonathan and Maria are sunbathing at City Park. They feel uncomfortable as the temperature has already reached 36°C. While they decide to go back home, their favoured weather app displays an unbelievable snowstorm watch for Tuesday Sept. 08. The forecast turns out to be rather accurate as all Colorado experiences one of the earliest snowstorms on record in Septem ...[Read More]

NPG Paper of the Month: “Correcting for model changes in statistical postprocessing – an approach based on response theory”

July 22, 2020
NPG Paper of the Month: “Correcting for model changes in statistical postprocessing – an approach based on response theory”
Mean square error (MSE) evolution between the different forecasts and their correction and reality. Credits: Demaeyer, J. and Vannitsem, S.: Correcting for model changes in statistical postprocessing – an approach based on response theory, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 307–327, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-307-2020, 2020.

This month the NPG Paper of the Month award is achieved by Jonathan Deameyer and Stéphane Vannitsem for their paper “Correcting for model changes in statistical postprocessing – an approach based on response theory” (https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-307-2020). Jonathan did his PhD in statistical mechanics at the Université Libre de Bruxelles under the supervision of Pierre Gaspard and he is currentl ...[Read More]

NPG Paper Highlight: “Baroclinic and barotropic instabilities in planetary atmospheres: energetics, equilibration and adjustment”

July 9, 2020
NPG Paper Highlight: “Baroclinic and barotropic instabilities in planetary atmospheres: energetics, equilibration and adjustment”
License: Read, P., Kennedy, D., Lewis, N., Scolan, H., Tabataba-Vakili, F., Wang, Y., Wright, S., and Young, R.: Baroclinic and barotropic instabilities in planetary atmospheres: energetics, equilibration and adjustment, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 147–173, https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/27/147/2020/npg-27-147-2020.html, 2020.

Today’s our blog hosts a review article by the 2016 EGU Richardson medallist Peter Read, together with Daniel Kennedy, Neil Lewis, Hélène Scolan, Fachreddin Tabataba-Vakili, YixiongWang, Susie Wright, and Roland Young for the special issue of NPG celebrating 100 years of IUGG (https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/27/147/2020/npg-27-147-2020.html). One of the great achievements of the past 100 ...[Read More]