NP
Nonlinear Processes in Geosciences

Large deviations

Socio-economic and security implications of global heating

May 15, 2023
Socio-economic and security implications of global heating
Temperature anomaly for July 2022 with respect to reference period 1959-1989. Data: 2m temperatures from ERA5.

This year, like in the last few years, we are experiencing the effects of global heating in increasingly personal ways. The summer of 2022 exposed us to ever more extreme heat waves in North America, Europe, and Asia. For instance, the heat wave in India and Pakistan reached temperatures of 49C in Nawabshah, Pakistan. North America too experienced devastating heat waves and wildfires. Los Angeles ...[Read More]

ECS SpotLight: Changes in the climate dynamics have already modified characteristics and impacts of storms in France: the case study of storm Alex 2020

April 6, 2023
ECS SpotLight: Changes in the climate dynamics have already modified characteristics and impacts of storms in France: the case study of storm Alex 2020
Credit: https://openai.com/product/dall-e-2

Extratropical cyclones play a key role in modulating the precipitation and wind in mid-latitudes and can be responsible for extreme wet and windy events. With global warming, the dynamics and thermodynamics associated with these atmospheric systems are being affected. However, due to the complexity of modelling the climate system, a challenge arises when evaluating the influence that climate chang ...[Read More]

A few reasons making the June 2022 French Heatwave too hot & too soon

June 17, 2022
A few reasons making the June 2022 French Heatwave too hot & too soon
Picture (by Chris Walts): original way to stay cool during hot days in Paris.

Too hot, Too soon: the thermometer has reached unprecedented temperature for a month of June in France, with the 40°C mark crossed by Friday June 17 in part of France. The IPCC AR6 report now clearly states that the probability of heatwave events such as this one has increased by a factor 3 to 5 in the present climate with respect to a counterfactual world not affected by anthropogenic greenhouse ...[Read More]

From the eyes of tropical cyclones to flooded strands : how climatologists use weather events to make climate predictions?

October 26, 2021
From the eyes of tropical cyclones to flooded strands : how climatologists use weather events to make climate predictions?
Hurricane Florence seen from space: Credits: ESA/A.Gerst, CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO.

While extreme events are meteorological in nature, climatologists collect them to draw conclusions about the state of the present climate and to get clues how they possibly change in the future. Thus, climate and weather find common ground. If we consider an event alone, we are not studying the climate, we are in the field of meteorology, the goal of climatologists is therefore to put extreme even ...[Read More]