NP
Nonlinear Processes in Geosciences
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Tommaso Alberti

I am a researcher at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) in Rome, Italy. My research activity is focused on data analysis and modeling, via dynamical system and statistical mechanics approaches, to understand complexity in geoscience and near-Earth space plasma. My interests cover: - Complexity and chaos in geosciences - Extreme events in geosciences - Sea level variability: transient phenomena, long-term variability and trends - Geo-electromagnetic transient phenomena and effects on electric infrastructures - Turbulence in fluids and plasmas

NPG Paper of the Month: “Beyond univariate calibration: verifying spatial structure in ensembles of forecast fields”

October 2, 2020
NPG Paper of the Month: “Beyond univariate calibration: verifying spatial structure in ensembles of forecast fields”
Example binary exceedance verification field and a subset of ensemble fields with representative FTE histogram for threshold τ=0 found using 5000 samples. Dark blue regions indicate threshold exceedance. All verification fields have correlation length a0=2 and ensemble fields have correlation length aM=1,2,3 in rows A, B, and C, respectively. FTE histograms are density histograms with dotted line y=1 and corresponding β-score (left) and β-bias (right) annotated. License: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-411-2020.

The August 2020 NPG Paper of the Month award goes to Josh Jacobson and colleagues for their paper “Beyond univariate calibration: verifying spatial structure in ensembles of forecast fields” (https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-411-2020). The ability to know the future has long been sought after and coveted. Yet, in contrast to prophecies and crystal balls, modern methods of prediction are ...[Read More]

NPG Paper of the Month: “Simulation-based comparison of multivariate ensemble post-processing methods”

September 29, 2020
NPG Paper of the Month: “Simulation-based comparison of multivariate ensemble post-processing methods”
Exemplary results for three variants of one of the simulation settings. Boxplots show comparisons to the standard ECC approach, with positive values indicating improvements in performance, measured in terms of two multivariate evaluation functions. The horizontal gray stripe indicates a region where differences in performance are not statistically significant with respect to the Diebold-Mariano (DM) test. License: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-349-2020.

The June 2020 NPG Paper of the Month award goes to Sebastian Lerch and colleagues for their paper “Simulation-based comparison of multivariate ensemble post-processing methods” (https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-349-2020). Sebastian Lerch is a researcher at the Faculty of Mathematics of the Karlsruhe Institute Technology (KIT). He has a background in mathematics and statistics, his resear ...[Read More]

NPG Paper of the Month “Anthropocene climate bifurcation”

September 24, 2020
NPG Paper of the Month “Anthropocene climate bifurcation”
Arctic surface temperature change projected to year 2300 (relative to year 2000 mean temperature of -28.90 °C), with linearly increasing ocean heat transport F_O . (a) With constant F_A = 104 W/m2, there is a jump in temperature for RCP 8.5 but not for the other choices of RCP. (b) The same as (a) except that in addition to increasing F_O , the atmosphere heat transport F_A also increases linearly from 104 to 129 W/m2 . Now upward transitions occur on both RCP 8.5 and 6.0, as indicated by the arrows. License: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-391-2020.

The July 2020 NPG Paper of the Month award goes to Kolja Kypke, William Langford and Allan Willms, for their paper “Anthropocene climate bifurcation” (https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-391-2020). All three authors work at the University of Guelph, in Guelph, Ontario, Canada. William Langford did his PhD at the California Institute of Technology in 1971 under the supervision of Herbert Kel ...[Read More]

NPG Paper of the Month: “Correcting for model changes in statistical postprocessing – an approach based on response theory”

July 22, 2020
NPG Paper of the Month: “Correcting for model changes in statistical postprocessing – an approach based on response theory”
Mean square error (MSE) evolution between the different forecasts and their correction and reality. Credits: Demaeyer, J. and Vannitsem, S.: Correcting for model changes in statistical postprocessing – an approach based on response theory, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 307–327, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-307-2020, 2020.

This month the NPG Paper of the Month award is achieved by Jonathan Deameyer and Stéphane Vannitsem for their paper “Correcting for model changes in statistical postprocessing – an approach based on response theory” (https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-307-2020). Jonathan did his PhD in statistical mechanics at the Université Libre de Bruxelles under the supervision of Pierre Gaspard and he is currentl ...[Read More]