NP
Nonlinear Processes in Geosciences

NPG Paper of the Month

NPG Paper of the Month “Anthropocene climate bifurcation”

September 24, 2020
NPG Paper of the Month “Anthropocene climate bifurcation”
Arctic surface temperature change projected to year 2300 (relative to year 2000 mean temperature of -28.90 °C), with linearly increasing ocean heat transport F_O . (a) With constant F_A = 104 W/m2, there is a jump in temperature for RCP 8.5 but not for the other choices of RCP. (b) The same as (a) except that in addition to increasing F_O , the atmosphere heat transport F_A also increases linearly from 104 to 129 W/m2 . Now upward transitions occur on both RCP 8.5 and 6.0, as indicated by the arrows. License: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-391-2020.

The July 2020 NPG Paper of the Month award goes to Kolja Kypke, William Langford and Allan Willms, for their paper “Anthropocene climate bifurcation” (https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-391-2020). All three authors work at the University of Guelph, in Guelph, Ontario, Canada. William Langford did his PhD at the California Institute of Technology in 1971 under the supervision of Herbert Kel ...[Read More]

NPG Paper of the Month: “Correcting for model changes in statistical postprocessing – an approach based on response theory”

July 22, 2020
NPG Paper of the Month: “Correcting for model changes in statistical postprocessing – an approach based on response theory”
Mean square error (MSE) evolution between the different forecasts and their correction and reality. Credits: Demaeyer, J. and Vannitsem, S.: Correcting for model changes in statistical postprocessing – an approach based on response theory, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 307–327, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-307-2020, 2020.

This month the NPG Paper of the Month award is achieved by Jonathan Deameyer and Stéphane Vannitsem for their paper “Correcting for model changes in statistical postprocessing – an approach based on response theory” (https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-307-2020). Jonathan did his PhD in statistical mechanics at the Université Libre de Bruxelles under the supervision of Pierre Gaspard and he is currentl ...[Read More]

NPG Paper of the Month: “Detecting dynamical anomalies in time series from different palaeoclimate proxy archives using windowed recurrence network analysis”

June 30, 2020
NPG Paper of the Month: “Detecting dynamical anomalies in time series from different palaeoclimate proxy archives using windowed recurrence network analysis”
Recurrence network transitivity (colour-coded) for a Lorenz-63 system with linear parameter drift as input signal, and the output of four different proxy system models with an areawise significance test (contours). The vertical lines denote the approximate positions of transient bifurcations between different types of dynamics at b = 161.0 and b = 166.5 as described in Donges et al., Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 2011. Credits: Detecting dynamical anomalies in time series from different palaeoclimate proxy archives using windowed recurrence network analysis (https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/27/261/2020/).

This month the NPG Paper of the Month award is achieved by Jaqueline Lekscha and Reik Donner for their paper “Detecting dynamical anomalies in time series from different palaeoclimate proxy archives using windowed recurrence network analysis” (https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/27/261/2020/). Jaqueline Lekscha did her PhD in physics at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Humbold ...[Read More]

NPG Paper of the Month: “Application of a local attractor dimension to reduced space strongly coupled data assimilation for chaotic multiscale systems”

April 23, 2020
NPG Paper of the Month: “Application of a local attractor dimension to reduced space strongly coupled data assimilation for chaotic multiscale systems”
Local dynamical properties of a segment of an example run for the coupled Lorenz system. (a) Alignment of directions of error growth plotted along the x coordinate of the ocean subsystem. Large orange stars indicate high alignment of error growth in the unstable or neutral subspaces. (b) Finite-time Lyapunov exponents (FTLEs) computed over window τ = 4. (c) Local Kaplan-Yorke dimension calculated from FTLEs. (Source: Quinn, O’Kane, and Kitsios, Application of a local attractor dimension to reduced space strongly coupled data assimilation for chaotic multiscale systems, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 51–74, 2020, https://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/27/51/2020/. License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.

This month the NPG Paper of the Month award is achieved by Courtney Quinn for her paper “Application of a local attractor dimension to reduced space strongly coupled data assimilation for chaotic multiscale systems” (https://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/27/51/2020/). Dr. Courtney obtained her PhD in Mathematics at the University of Exeter (UK) researching critical transitions in dynamical syst ...[Read More]