NP
Nonlinear Processes in Geosciences

Extreme events

Is climate change making the weather more extreme?

September 11, 2020
Is climate change making the weather more extreme?
NOAA PSL weather forecasts of temperature anomaly at 850hPa (~1500m.a.s.l.) shows a deep negative anomaly on Central US, leading to snowfalls. Credits: NOAA.

Denver, Sept. 06: it is midday and Jonathan and Maria are sunbathing at City Park. They feel uncomfortable as the temperature has already reached 36°C. While they decide to go back home, their favoured weather app displays an unbelievable snowstorm watch for Tuesday Sept. 08. The forecast turns out to be rather accurate as all Colorado experiences one of the earliest snowstorms on record in Septem ...[Read More]

NPG Paper of the Month: “Correcting for model changes in statistical postprocessing – an approach based on response theory”

July 22, 2020
NPG Paper of the Month: “Correcting for model changes in statistical postprocessing – an approach based on response theory”
Mean square error (MSE) evolution between the different forecasts and their correction and reality. Credits: Demaeyer, J. and Vannitsem, S.: Correcting for model changes in statistical postprocessing – an approach based on response theory, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 307–327, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-307-2020, 2020.

This month the NPG Paper of the Month award is achieved by Jonathan Deameyer and Stéphane Vannitsem for their paper “Correcting for model changes in statistical postprocessing – an approach based on response theory” (https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-307-2020). Jonathan did his PhD in statistical mechanics at the Université Libre de Bruxelles under the supervision of Pierre Gaspard and he is currentl ...[Read More]

NPG Paper of the Month: “Detecting dynamical anomalies in time series from different palaeoclimate proxy archives using windowed recurrence network analysis”

June 30, 2020
NPG Paper of the Month: “Detecting dynamical anomalies in time series from different palaeoclimate proxy archives using windowed recurrence network analysis”
Recurrence network transitivity (colour-coded) for a Lorenz-63 system with linear parameter drift as input signal, and the output of four different proxy system models with an areawise significance test (contours). The vertical lines denote the approximate positions of transient bifurcations between different types of dynamics at b = 161.0 and b = 166.5 as described in Donges et al., Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 2011. Credits: Detecting dynamical anomalies in time series from different palaeoclimate proxy archives using windowed recurrence network analysis (https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/27/261/2020/).

This month the NPG Paper of the Month award is achieved by Jaqueline Lekscha and Reik Donner for their paper “Detecting dynamical anomalies in time series from different palaeoclimate proxy archives using windowed recurrence network analysis” (https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/27/261/2020/). Jaqueline Lekscha did her PhD in physics at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Humbold ...[Read More]

NP Interviews: the 2020 Lewis Fry Richardson Medal Valerio Lucarini

April 29, 2020
NP Interviews: the 2020 Lewis Fry Richardson Medal Valerio Lucarini
The 2020 Lewis Fry Richardson Medal Valerio Lucarini.

Today’s NP Interviews hosts the 2020 Lewis Fry Richardson Medal Valerio Lucarini. Valerio (b. Ancona, Italy, 1976) is the Director of the Centre for the Mathematics of Planet Earth and Professor of Statistical Mechanics at the University of Reading, and former Professor of Theoretical Meteorology at the University of Hamburg. His main expertise is in Climate Dynamics, Extreme Events, Statist ...[Read More]