Nonlinear Processes in Geosciences

ECS Spotlight: Can Weather Analogues forecast Europe’s Wind and Rainfall Extremes?

Meriem Krouma September 8, 2026

Figure: Simulating Compound Rain and Wind Events Across Europe for 1 and 5 day forecast window. Rain–wind denotes events in which extreme rainfall precedes extreme wind, whereas wind–rain denotes events in which extreme wind precedes extreme rainfall. Values represent the difference between the observed and simulated numbers of events.

Extreme rainfall and strong winds can each cause major disruption. When they occur together—or within only a few days of each other—their combined impacts can be even more severe. Heavy rainfall may saturate soils and increase flood risk, while strong winds can damage infrastructure, disrupt transport and bring down trees or power lines. Forecasting these events is essential for early-warning syst ...[Read More]

ECS Spotlight: When “Day Zero Drought” Dries the Tap: How Drought is Reshaping Water Scarcity in the Anthropocene

Ravinandrasana P. Vecchia April 20, 2026

Spatial distribution of the decadal ToFE of DZD events across the globe from 1900 to 2100. Colored shading indicates the first decade during which DZD becomes statistically attributable to anthropogenic climate change, defined as the first decade in which the Fraction of Attributable Risk is greater than 0.99 (FAR ≥ 0.99). Gray regions indicate grid cells where no DZD event attributable to anthropogenic climate change is projected to emerge before 2100. For regions with reservoirs, the ToFE is considered to be the first decade after the year of completion of their respective reservoirs, when all DZD criteria are simultaneously met. By aligning the emergence timing with the operational onset of water storage infrastructure to reflect the real-world system resilience dynamics. The black stars denote the locations of the reservoirs threatened by DZD emergence.

Extreme events are becoming increasingly observable, intense, and interconnected. Drought, traditionally viewed as a regional and temporary phenomenon, is now undergoing a fundamental shift. We introduce the concept of “Day Zero Drought” to describe a threshold where water demand exceeds available supply under persistent drought conditions. This study shows that water scarcity is no longer confin ...[Read More]

ECS Spotlight: Evolution of the Dynamics of Centennial Hot Summers in Western Europe With Climate Change

Robin Noyelle December 1, 2025

Extreme meteorological and climatological events can be immensely damaging and disruptive to society. Understanding the physical mechanisms driving these events, and how they will evolve with climate change is crucial for informing societal adaptation to our changing climate. However, extreme events are, by definition, rare. Our capacity to understand these events is, therefore, hindered by the sm ...[Read More]

From Theory to Impacts: Nonlinear Perspectives on Weather Extremes at UNDERPIN#2

Meriem Krouma August 29, 2025

From 1–5 August 2025, the medieval hilltop town of Erice, Sicily, hosted the second UNDERPIN workshop, a meeting organised within the Nonlinear Processes in Geosciences community and dedicated to advancing the science of weather extremes. The event brought together a truly diverse group of researchers, spanning climate dynamics, attribution science, socio-economic impacts, statistical physics, and ...[Read More]