Nonlinear Processes in Geosciences

After Lorenzo and Ophelia, should we prepare European coasts for tropical storms and hurricanes?

Davide Faranda October 15, 2019

probability forecasts of tropical storm force winds issued by the National Hurrican Center issued on 02/10/2019. Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?tswind120? .

Autumn is hurricane season in the north tropics and indeed 2019 does not make exception from this point of view. After Dorian hitting Bahamas and North Carolina, the American National Hurricane Center named Lorenzo a tropical depression originating near Capo Verde. On September 25th Lorenzo became a category 1 hurricane, according to the Saffir-Simpson scale. This scale categorizes the hurricanes ...[Read More]

NPG Paper of the Month: “Unravelling the spatial diversity of Indian precipitation teleconnections via a non-linear multi-scale approach”

Tommaso Alberti September 20, 2019

Schematic map of spatial diversity of Indian precipitation teleconnections at different time scales. (a) ENSO, (b) IOD, (c) NAO, (d PDO, and (e) AMO. Colors are consistent with the Indian community shown in the right figure. Presence of color in community segment indicates significant synchronization between teleconnection and Indian precipitation. Every single segment of circle shows the temporal scale. Cardinal direction has been projected in the background of each circle. (Source: J. Kurths et al., Unravelling the spatial diversity of Indian precipitation teleconnections via a non-linear multi-scale approach, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 251–266, 2019, https://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/26/251/2019/ . License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ .

Today’s we launch one of our promised activities: the NPG Paper of the Month. This month the award is achieved by Jürgen Kurths and co-authors for their paper “Unravelling the spatial diversity of Indian precipitation teleconnections via a non-linear multi-scale approach” (https://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/26/251/2019/). Ankit Agarwal, one of the authors of the manuscript, tells ...[Read More]

Abrupt Warming could bring our planet a “Hothouse Earth” with catastrophic consequences for our economy and society

Davide Faranda September 9, 2019

Global map of potential tipping cascades. The individual tipping elements are color-coded according to estimated thresholds in global average surface temperature (Source: W. Steffen et al., Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115 (33), 8252-8259, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1810141115, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1810141115 . License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ .

Most of us have enjoyed swings in childhood. Some have even tried to swing faster and make a full 360 degrees’ loop. Those who succeeded had a very strange feeling of not being able to predict whether, increasing the energy of the swing, the transition from normal oscillations and 360 loops would happen. Indeed, there is an energy threshold such that the swing goes from oscillations to full loops ...[Read More]

Workshop report: Mathematics of the Economy and Climate

Anna von der Heydt September 9, 2019

Percentage change in regional GDP under a laissez-faire scenario in 2100. Source: http://www.econ.yale.edu/smith/pctgdp1.mp4 .

Just before the summer a group of about 40 scientists gathered in an old Monastery in the Netherlands (Kontakt der Kontinenten, Soesterberg) for a rather special collaborative workshop entitled “Mathematics of the economy and climate”. Mathematicians, climate scientists and economists – a group of scientists that normally does not mix and are rather unfamiliar with each other’s researc ...[Read More]