Dear EGU Hydrology community, Over the past few years, machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence have fundamentally changed what is possible in large-scale hydrological modeling. At Google, our team has worked to develop machine learning river forecast models that operate globally, extending reliable forecasting to ungauged basins and covering almost two billion people through the …[Read More]
floods
What machine learning can and cannot tell us about floods
Floods are shaped by complex and nonlinear interactions between weather patterns, rainfall, soil properties, topography, land cover, and how wet a catchment already is. This complexity is one reason machine learning (ML) is increasingly used in hydrology. ML models can learn patterns from large and complex datasets with many variables. Early in my PhD, while …[Read More]
Communicating and Managing Residual Risk with Perfect Storms and Other Counterfactual Stories
The aim of risk management is to prepare society in order to limit loss and damage when an extreme event occurs and to restore the functioning of society afterwards . While current risk management practices are helpful in many regards, they fall short when it comes to unprecedented events. An analysis of event pairs and …[Read More]
HydroTalks: Heidi Kreibich about Floods, Human-water Feedbacks, and the IAHS Scientific Decade Panta Rhei
For this month’s episode of HydroTalks, we’re thrilled to welcome Heidi Kreibich. She is head of the Section Hydrology at GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences and senior lecturer at the Geography Department of Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin. Heidi is also president of the Natural Hazards division of the EGU and president of the International Commission on …[Read More]
“What if …?” – Creativity in flood risk management using counterfactual scenarios
Floods are among the most devastating natural hazards, claiming lives and damaging infrastructure. The question of how we can be prepared for these extreme events quickly reaches an almost philosophical level: First of all, what is an extreme event? Second, how can we know what the future will bring? For the last century hydrologists have …[Read More]
My Riverside journey by bike to EGU, part 2
We’ve now been pedalling (unaided by batteries, in case you were wondering) for six days along the Rhine. I’m writing this in the warmth of the evening sun, sparkling off the river, flowing gently past tonight’s campsite, which occupies the hundred metre wide floodplain between the left bank and a steeply-sloping vineyard. Today’s ride took …[Read More]
How do you ensure quality in your flow modeling? Participate in a survey!
The challenges in hydraulic engineering are increasing due to the growing threat of floods and heavy rainfall events caused by climate change (as experienced several times in Europe in recent years) on the one hand and the more frequent low water situations and the associated requirements for ecological enhancement of water bodies, on the other …[Read More]
October 2024 floods in the Valencia region, Eastern Spain: One example too many of hazardous debris
The recent devastating flash floods in Valencia region, Eastern Spain, have once more highlighted the role of large debris in enhancing urban flood hazard. Urban debris – so-called Urban Flood Drifters (UFDs) – are very varied as shown by a recent survey. They include vehicles, deadwood, waste bins, containers of many types, construction materials, and …[Read More]
September 2024 Flooding in Central Europe: The Austrian Experience
Storm Boris is the latest in a series of deluges during one of Europe’s most flood-prone periods in 500 years, yet Vienna managed to avoid major damage. The city’s preparations may offer valuable lessons for other urban areas facing similar challenges. Dealing With Record Rainfall: September 2024 in Vienna When record rainfall hit Vienna on …[Read More]
Communicating science to the public – an example after the recent floods in Germany
After the wet December 2023, the year 2024 started with widespread flooding in parts of Europe. Flooding during winter times is not unusual but brings particular challenges in terms of spatial extent, and the impact on people can be exacerbated when flooding comes with very low temperatures. The exceptionally wet and warm winter necessarily triggers …[Read More]