Nonlinear Processes in Geosciences

EGU NP Paper of the Month “Finite-size local dimension as a tool for extracting geometrical properties of attractors of dynamical systems”

Martin Bonte June 19, 2025

The original goal of this study was to understand how the local dimension of the attractor of a dynamical system could be used to estimate the predictability of the future state of the system, and apply this in the case of radar images of rain. The local dimension using Extreme Value Theory (EVT) has been introduced and used in Faranda et al. (2017) to infer the current predictability of different ...[Read More]

ECS SpotLight: Changes in the climate dynamics have already modified characteristics and impacts of storms in France: the case study of storm Alex 2020

Mireia Ginesta-Fernandez April 6, 2023

Credit: https://openai.com/product/dall-e-2

Extratropical cyclones play a key role in modulating the precipitation and wind in mid-latitudes and can be responsible for extreme wet and windy events. With global warming, the dynamics and thermodynamics associated with these atmospheric systems are being affected. However, due to the complexity of modelling the climate system, a challenge arises when evaluating the influence that climate chang ...[Read More]

ECS SpotLight: Climate change on extreme winds already affects off-shore wind energy availability in Europe

Lia Rapella March 3, 2023

Credit: https://openai.com/product/dall-e-2

Off-shore wind energy plays a key role in the transition to a renewable energy (RE) system, and its usage is expected to increase in the next few decades. Nevertheless, wind energy is one of the most variable and weather-dependent RE, because of its natural dependence on the wind speed, which can vary at different time scales, ranging from small-scale turbulence to seasonal oscillations and up to ...[Read More]

NP Interview: Federico Grazzini on Climate Change casts shadows on the present and the future of the Mediterranean Basin

Davide Faranda November 17, 2022

Monthly mean sea surface temperature averaged over western and central Mediterranean sea [0E - 22E], months April - November. The blue line corresponds to the recent climatology 1991-2020 with the shading respectively showing 1,2,3 standard deviations of the monthly averages from the mean. Symbols are showing this year values and, for comparison with a previous strongest marine heat wave, the values recorded in 2003.

Weather extreme events in the year 2022 are really hitting the Mediterranean basin very hard. Since the beginning of the year we are observing a widespread drought, heatwaves but also severe thunderstorms. Few days before the COP meeting in Sharm-el-sheik we discussed one of the experts of Mediterranean climate, Federico Grazzini, to unveil whether these events can be linked to climate change. Fe ...[Read More]