NP
Nonlinear Processes in Geosciences

forecast

Perspectives on Climate Science: from historical developments to research frontiers

October 5, 2020
Perspectives on Climate Science: from historical developments to research frontiers

Breaking news: a bizarre early-September snowstorm dumped snow from Montana to New Mexico, a medicane hit Southern Italian regions and Greece, heatwaves and droughts are expected to increase in the future… These extreme events are becoming more and more frequent and one question spontaneously arises: is climate change making the weather more extreme? This is one of the reasons why climate change i ...[Read More]

NPG Paper of the Month: “Beyond univariate calibration: verifying spatial structure in ensembles of forecast fields”

October 2, 2020
NPG Paper of the Month: “Beyond univariate calibration: verifying spatial structure in ensembles of forecast fields”
Example binary exceedance verification field and a subset of ensemble fields with representative FTE histogram for threshold τ=0 found using 5000 samples. Dark blue regions indicate threshold exceedance. All verification fields have correlation length a0=2 and ensemble fields have correlation length aM=1,2,3 in rows A, B, and C, respectively. FTE histograms are density histograms with dotted line y=1 and corresponding β-score (left) and β-bias (right) annotated. License: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-411-2020.

The August 2020 NPG Paper of the Month award goes to Josh Jacobson and colleagues for their paper “Beyond univariate calibration: verifying spatial structure in ensembles of forecast fields” (https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-411-2020). The ability to know the future has long been sought after and coveted. Yet, in contrast to prophecies and crystal balls, modern methods of prediction are ...[Read More]