NP
Nonlinear Processes in Geosciences

forecast

NPG Paper of the Month: “Statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts for
 severe weather at Deutscher Wetterdienst”

December 23, 2020
NPG Paper of the Month: “Statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts for
 severe weather at Deutscher Wetterdienst”
Probabilities of wind gusts higher than 14 m/s on
a regular 1 km grid over Germany; 13 h forecast lied time from Ensemble-MOS for COSMO-DE-EPS from 29 October 2018. Licence: Statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts for severe weather at Deutscher Wetterdienst.

The October 2020 NPG Paper of the Month award goes to Reinhold Hess for the paper “Statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts for 
severe weather at Deutscher Wetterdienst“. Ensemble Forecasting rose with the understanding of the limited predictability of weather. In a perfect ensemble system, the obtained ensemble of forecasts expresses the distribution of possible weather scena ...[Read More]

The never-ending 2020 hurricane season

November 23, 2020
The never-ending 2020 hurricane season
Hurricane Iota approaching central America: satellite picture. Source: Wikimedia Commons.

Iota, this is the name of the last category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean. Iota is a non-name because normally hurricanes are named by NOAA starting from A to Z but when the alphabet is over, they are just identified from a letter of the Greek alphabet. Iota is a special cyclone not just because its name implies that the hurricane season is particularly rich in storms but also because of its e ...[Read More]

Can we connect the exceptional floods in France and Italy associated with the storm Alex to climate change?

October 14, 2020

The first days of October were marked by an extreme weather event: storm Alex, a cyclone of Atlantic origin, caused massive showers and thunderstorms over Provence, the Alps, Piedmont and Liguria. In these regions, numerous historical records of precipitation were broken causing the flooding of several streams and rivers in which many people lost their lives. Economic damage was also significant a ...[Read More]

Perspectives on Climate Science: from historical developments to research frontiers

October 5, 2020
Perspectives on Climate Science: from historical developments to research frontiers

Breaking news: a bizarre early-September snowstorm dumped snow from Montana to New Mexico, a medicane hit Southern Italian regions and Greece, heatwaves and droughts are expected to increase in the future… These extreme events are becoming more and more frequent and one question spontaneously arises: is climate change making the weather more extreme? This is one of the reasons why climate change i ...[Read More]