The original goal of this study was to understand how the local dimension of the attractor of a dynamical system could be used to estimate the predictability of the future state of the system, and apply this in the case of radar images of rain. The local dimension using Extreme Value Theory (EVT) has been introduced and used in Faranda et al. (2017) to infer the current predictability of different ...[Read More]
NP Paper of the Month: “Representation learning with unconditional denoising diffusion models for dynamical systems”
About the revolution of generating butterflies Imagine the most vibrant butterfly you can conceive. Congratulations – you’ve just achieved what generative AI does! This technology can create images from simple text descriptions, revolutionising image generation. But as geoscientists, how can we use it to improve the prediction of chaotic system like our weather? How can it help us to discover prop ...[Read More]
Nonlinear Processes in Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics (ESD) is an open-access EGU journal focussing on an interdisciplinary view of the functioning of the Earth system and global change. Due its broad focus, ESD receives submissions of relevance to several different EGU divisions. Here, I would like to highlight five thought-provoking ESD papers that cover topics spanning environmental governance, extreme events, palaeo-climates ...[Read More]
ECS SpotLight: The link between European warm-temperature extremes and atmospheric persistence
Persistent atmospheric circulation patterns are not a necessary requirement for warm temperature extremes in Europe. This key finding from a recent study led by Emma Holmberg challenges a more traditional meteorological view of persistence, which typically considers summertime heatwaves, especially in northern regions of Europe, to be synonymous with persistent atmospheric flow patterns. Furthermo ...[Read More]