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Cryospheric Sciences

christmas

Image of the Week – Will Santa have to move because of Climate Change?

Santa Claus on the move [Credit: Frank Schwichtenberg, CC BY 3.0, Wikimedia Commons]

Because of global warming and polar amplification, temperature rises twice as fast at the North Pole than anywhere else on the planet. Could that be a problem for our beloved Santa Claus, who, according to the legend, lives there? It appears that Santa could very well have to move to one of its second residences before the end of this century. But even if he moves to another place, the smooth running of Christmas could be in jeopardy…


But…. Where does Santa live?

The most famous of Santa’s residence is in Lapland, Finland, at Korvatunturi. But since this area is a little isolated, Finns then moved it near the town of Rovaniemi. For Swedes, it’s in Gesunda, northwest of Stockholm. The Danes, them, are convinced that he lives in Greenland while according to the Americans, he lives in the town of North Pole, Alaska. In Norway, there is even disagreement within the country: some Norwegians believe he lives in Drøback, 50 km south of Oslo while other believe he lives in the Northernmost inhabited town in the world: Longyearbyen, Spitsbergen, where Santa even has its own postbox!
Even in the southern hemisphere, Christmas Island claims to be Santa’s second home.

Santa’s huge postbox in Longyearbyen, Spitsbergen [Credit: Marie Kotovitch] and Rovaniemi, Finland: the self-proclaimed “official hometown of Santa Claus” [Credit: Pixabay]

It seems that Santa Claus has many places to stay.. But according to the legend, Santa’s real permanent residence is in fact the true North Pole. However, as shown by the Arctic Report Card 2018, the Arctic sea-ice cover continues its declining trends, with this year’s summer extent being the sixth lowest in the satellite record (1979-2018). The latest IPCC 1.5°C warming special report states that “ice-free Arctic Ocean summers are very likely at levels of global warming higher than 2°C” relative to pre-industrials levels. Considering that the world is currently on course for between 2.6 to 4.8°C of warming relative to pre-industrial levels by 2100, Santa’s home is projected to sink into the Arctic Ocean before the end of the current century. It appears it would be time for Santa to start thinking about which one of his second residences he will choose to move to…

Will Santa have to find a new home? [Credit: Pixabay]

Rudolf might be in trouble…

Of course, if he moves away from the melting North Pole, Santa still needs snow at Christmas to be able to take off his sled. But, actually, this could become a problem.
This year, there was still no snow in Rovaniemi, Finland, the self-proclaimed “official hometown of Santa Claus”, by the end of November, making the local tourist attractions very worried. Luckily, it has now snowed there since, but how does this look like for the years to come? According to the latest Arctic Report Card, the long-term trends of terrestrial snow cover are negative.

Another problem which might complicate Santa’s work was underlined in a study published in 2016. This study showed that reindeers are getting smaller because of warmer Arctic temperatures. How come? During the long winter, reindeers are usually able to find their food (which consists of grasses, lichens and mosses) by brushing aside the snow that covers it. But because of the warmer temperatures, rain now falls on the existing snow cover and freezes. The animals’ diet is thus locked away under a layer of ice. As a result, reindeers are hungry and lose their babies or give birth to much leaner ones. The Arctic Report Card 2018 states that the population of wild reindeer in the Arctic has decreased by more than half in the last two decades.

All this is not going to get better, as Arctic temperatures for the past five years (2014-18) all exceed previous records. According to the Danish Meteorological Institute, in November 2016, Arctic temperatures were reaching an incredible peak at around -5°C while average temperature at this period usually is around -25°C.

Climate change also affects reindeers [Credit: Photo by Red Hat Factory on Unsplash]

Christmas trees also at risk!

You may say that Santa is Santa and that he will be able to find a solution to all these problems. Let’s hope you’re right! But another problem is looming on the horizon: you might soon not be able to welcome Santa in your own home as it should with a beautiful Christmas tree.

Indeed, this summer’s heat waves have strongly affected Christmas tree crops everywhere in Europe. Moreover, a 2015 study shows that native Scandinavian Christmas trees are also affected by climate change, and more specifically by reduced snowfall. The latter acts like an insulation layer which protects the roots from the cold winter.

We hope that this post has made you realize the urgency of the fight against global warming! However, in the meantime, don’t forget that the most important to spend a nice Christmas is the Christmas spirit! We wish you all a very merry Christmas and a wonderful new year!

As a little Christmas gift..

  • If you want to find out the truth about Santa’s real home, you can always check it by yourself by using the Santa Tracker by Google to follow Santa’s Christmas Eve trip and check where he comes back at the end of the night…
  • The highlights of the Arctic Report Card 2018 are summarized in this video.

Further reading

Edited by Clara Burgard

Image of the Week – Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow…

Image of the Week – Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow…

Christmas is coming to town and in the Northern Hemisphere many of us are still dreaming of a white Christmas, “just like the ones we used to know”. But how likely is it that our dreams will come true?


What is the definition of a White Christmas ?

Usually Christmas can be defined as a “White Christmas” if the ground is covered by snow on either Christmas Eve or Christmas Day depending on local traditions. If you believe Christmas movies, it seems like Christmas was accompanied by snow much more often in the past than today! But is this really the case, or is it just the “Hollywood” version of Christmas? According to the UK Met Office White Christmases were more likely in the past. Due to climate change, average global temperatures are higher, which in many places reduces the chance of a White Christmas. However, the chances of a White Christmas also depend strongly on where you live…

Living in Western or Southern Europe, the Southern US or the Pacific coast of the US? Unlucky you!

Not too surprisingly, most of the inhabitants of Portugal, Southern Spain, and Southern Italy have probably never experienced White Christmas in their hometown. Maybe more counter intuitively the probability of a White Christmas is also low in most of France, the Netherlands, Ireland, and the Southern UK! In the US, the probability of a White Christmas increases from South to North, except on the Pacific Coast, which has a very low probability of a White Christmas.

Probability of a White Christmas in Europe (snow on the ground on 25th of December), inferred from reanalysis data (ERA Interim from 1979-2015). Probability [in %] increases from white to blue [Credit : Clara Burgard, Maciej Miernecki. We thank the ECMWF for making the data available]

What influences the probability of snowfall on Christmas?

The mean air temperature decreases with altitude and latitude, meaning that chances of a white Christmas increase the further North and at the higher you travel. However, coastal regions represent an exception. The air often has traveled over the ocean before reaching land. As the ocean is often warmer than the land surface in winter, the air in coastal regions is often too warm for snow to form. Additionally, in the Northern Hemisphere, ocean currents on the Western coast of the continents tend to carry warm water to high latitudes, while ocean currents on the Eastern coast tend to carry cold water to low latitudes. The probability of snowfall is therefore even lower in Western coastal regions (e.g. Pacific coast of the US, Atlantic coast of Europe).

Don’t despair !

If you want to increase your chances of experiencing a White Christmas, you have three solutions:

    1. You already live in an area with high probability of White Christmas (lucky you!) – Sit tight and do a “snow dance”, here is one suggestion that we have heard works well:

    2. Travel or move to one of these 10 suggested destinations (e.g. St. Moritz, Swizerland)

      Frozen Lake St. Moritz in Winter 2013 [Credit: Wikimedia Commons]

    3. Build your own snow with this simple recipe!

We hope that you find a satisfactory solution that makes you happy this Christmas. Otherwise, remember that snow is not the only thing that defines Christmas. Enjoy the relaxed time with family and friends and prepare yourself for the coming new year! If you find yourself at a loose end, then there is always the back catalogue of EGU Cryosphere Blog posts to read – and we guarantee a healthy dose of snow and ice can be found here.

So, this is it from the EGU Cryosphere blog team for 2016. See you in 2017 – after all, the snow must go on…

Further reading:

      •  MetOffice website with interesting facts around White Christmas!

Edited by Emma Smith