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Climate: Past, Present & Future

uncertainty

Climate models and Bach’s unfinished fugue

September 10, 2020
Climate models and Bach’s unfinished fugue
Illustration by: Roshanak Tootoonchi, M.Sc. Student in hydrology and water resources management, University of Tabriz, Iran.

Johann Sebastian Bach’s last work – Contrapunctus XIV – is an unfinished musical composition. For many years, scholars considered that this piece was left unfinished because of Bach’s deteriorating health in his final years and eventual death. However, researchers recently found evidence that Bach might have left this piece intentionally unfinished, as he thought that there was still room for impr ...[Read More]

Dear “climate sceptic”, do you have a fire insurance? – Climate policy under uncertainty

December 12, 2019
Dear “climate sceptic”, do you have a fire insurance? – Climate policy under uncertainty
Smoke clears after an experimental wildfire in Australian eucalyptus forest. Credit: Stefan Doerr (distributed via imaggeo.egu.eu)

One often hears that ambitious climate policy might be premature while climate change is still “uncertain”. This sounds like a fair argument: The amount of global warming per doubling CO2 is not well constrained, and the amount of economic damage per degree of warming even less. But is this uncertainty a sound excuse to wait and see?   Uncertainty, risk aversion, and insurance If you knew the ...[Read More]