Climate change is often described as a challenge of the future. Yet through our latest work, we’ve realized the future is already unfolding across Türkiye’s landscapes and climates. The signs are visible in the shifting seasons, intensifying heatwaves, and changes in rainfall…
As one of the authors of the study “High-Resolution Projections of Bioclimatic Variables in Türkiye: Emerging Patterns and Temporal Shifts” led by Prof. Ünal, I would like to share with you what we found and why it matters. This research goes beyond academic curiosity. It offers a detailed picture of how Türkiye’s climate may evolve through the end of the century, and which regions may face greater risks or adaptation needs.
For me, translating these results into a broader conversation is essential. The more clearly we understand what is changing, the better prepared we will be to protect our ecosystems, our communities, and our way of life. In this post, I invite you to explore Türkiye’s climate with me and reflect on the paths we might take moving forward.
Türkiye’s Climate at a Crossroads: High-Resolution Projections Show an Inevitable Shift Toward a Hotter, Drier Future
A new high-resolution study analyzing Türkiye’s future climate trajectory reveals a robust signal: regardless of global emissions pathways, the country is undergoing a substantial climatic transition toward hotter and drier conditions. While our actions now determine the ultimate severity, this transition is already underway. This comprehensive assessment pinpoints vulnerable areas and identify critical temporal shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns, providing vital information for sustainable development and climate adaptation.
The Methodology: Downscaling Climate Model
Researchers utilized the regional climate model (RCM) COSMO-CLM to downscale large-scale climate signals to a high resolution of 0.11° (approximately 12 km) over Türkiye, ensuring a more accurate representation of the country’s complex topography and coastlines.
The study examined future projections spanning 2020–2099 against a historical reference period (1995–2014). Two divergent Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were used:
- SSP2-4.5: A moderate mitigation scenario.
- SSP3-7.0: A high-emission scenario reflecting regional rivalry and limited cooperation.
Because climate models often simplify real-world conditions, resulting in systematic errors (biases), the team compared the COSMO-CLM simulations with ERA5-Land reanalysis data. The model initially showed systematic biases, including a warm bias (annual mean bias of +1.41° C) and a dry bias (−0.28 mm/day). To ensure accuracy, the Quantile Delta Mapping (QDM) technique was applied to bias-correct the data before calculating the 19 bioclimatic variables, which are essential indicators for assessing climate change impacts on species, agriculture, and ecology.
The Heat is On: Pronounced and Asymmetric Warming
The projections consistently indicate a robust signal of country-wide warming across both scenarios. However, the timing and intensity of this warming differ:
- SSP3-7.0 (High Emissions): Warming intensifies steadily. The most intense warming period is projected for 2060–2079, with an anticipated rate of 0.109°C/year.
- SSP2-4.5 (Moderate Emissions): Warming follows a more variable pattern, accelerating dramatically in 2040–2059, making this the most intense warming period under this scenario, with a rate of 0.068°C/year.
Spatially, the Eastern Anatolia region is identified as a climate sensitivity hotspot, expected to experience the most rapid and pronounced temperature increases.
Furthermore, the data reveal significant changes in temperature extremes:
- Reduced Cold Extremes: The minimum temperature of the coldest month (BIO6) is projected to increase substantially, rising from a reference value of −3.83°C to up to +0.16°C by the end of the century under SSP3-7.0, indicating a significant reduction in cold days and likely snow cover.
- Asymmetrical Seasonal Warming: Projections show that summers are warming faster than winters (accelerated summer warming), contributing to higher annual temperature ranges (BIO7). This is partly attributed to strong land–atmosphere feedbacks and reduced inland humidity, limiting evaporative cooling.
Reference period (left) and differences from the reference period of the future periods of 0.11° COSMO-CLM annual temperature (BIO1).
Drying Out: Precipitation Declines and Increased Variability
Future precipitation regimes in Türkiye are projected to be drier and more uneven. The Annual Precipitation (BIO12) is projected to decline from the reference value of 753.4 mm to 629.3 mm under SSP2-4.5 and further to 539.0 mm under SSP3-7.0 by the late century, reflecting a clear reduction in total moisture availability.
Precipitation trends also diverge based on the scenario:
- SSP3-7.0: Projects a progressive drying that becomes particularly acute after the 2060s, with the most pronounced negative trend projected for 2060–2079 (−0.82 mm/year).
- SSP2-4.5: Indicates a sharp, severe early-century drying event followed by partial recovery, but renewed intensification of drying later in the century, especially in the south and southeast.
This persistent drying signal, combined with an increase in Precipitation Seasonality (BIO15)—especially under SSP3-7.0 (up to 76.96% compared to the reference 70.8%)—suggests greater variability in monthly rainfall and sharper contrasts between wet and dry months, with profound implications for water availability and agriculture.
Reference period (left) and differences from the reference period of the future periods of 0.11° COSMO-CLM total precipitation (BIO12).
When Seasons Shift: Coastal Areas Delays and Mountain Areas Advances
A critical finding concerns the temporal reorganization of precipitation patterns, particularly the timing of the wettest three-month quarter. This shift follows an asymmetric pattern:
- Coastal Regions (Low Altitude): Expected to experience a delay in their seasonal precipitation peaks by one to two months (a positive shift), particularly along the Aegean Sea.
- Continental and Mountainous Regions (High Altitude): Expected to see a significant advancement in the timing of maximum precipitation, with shifts occurring up to four months earlier in some areas of the Anatolian plateau.
This restructuring confirms that high-elevation areas are more sensitive to future climate perturbations, as the shift toward an earlier and often drier season in continental areas impacts water resource management and ecosystem phenology.
The New Climate Map: Arid Zones Expand Northward
Using the k-means clustering method, the study identified four distinct climate sub-regions (clusters). The analysis showed a clear spatial reorganization of Türkiye’s climatic zones over the century, indicating a potential loss of climatic diversity.
The most dramatic change is the northward expansion of arid and semi-arid conditions, primarily replacing temperate zones in Central Anatolia.
- The climate zone representing warm, moderately dry continental interiors (Cluster 2) is projected to expand dramatically, becoming the dominant regime in Türkiye.
- This expansion comes at the expense of the more temperate and humid zones (Cluster 3 and 4), signifying a net loss of climatic diversity and a spread of drying conditions, particularly across Central Anatolia.
Intriguingly, the location of these clusters aligns with the observed seasonal shifts: Clusters 1 and 2 (continental interiors) are strongly associated with the earlier onset of the wettest season, while Cluster 4 (southern/western regions) aligns with delayed shifts or unchanged areas.
Conclusion: Urgency for Adaptation
Our findings make one thing clear: a significant climate shift is inevitable for Türkiye. The question is no longer whether it will happen, but how severe it will be.
The findings underscore that Türkiye’s principal agro-ecological zones are highly vulnerable to climate change, regardless of the scenario. The transition toward warmer and drier conditions, especially in mountainous and Mediterranean regions, aligns with projections for climate change hotspots.
This study provides critical information for targeted climate adaptation strategies, including optimizing agricultural sustainability, securing water resources, and developing land-use planning in vulnerable regions of Türkiye. While based on a single global model driver with two emission scenarios (EC-Earth3-Veg with SSP2 and SSP3), the high-resolution, bias-corrected results offer an indispensable scientific basis for policymakers facing accelerating climate change.
To dive deeper into the research, you can read the full open-access article here.
This post has been edited by the editorial board.
References Ünal, Y., Moral, A. C., Sonuç, C. Y., Şahin, O., & Salkım, E. (2025). High-Resolution Projections of Bioclimatic Variables in Türkiye: Emerging Patterns and Temporal Shifts. Climate, 13(9), 197. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090197
