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The Water-Energy Nexus

February 4, 2014
The Water-Energy Nexus
Tarbela Dam on the Indus river in pakistan. The dam was completed in 1974 and was designed to store water from the Indus River for irrigation, flood control, and the generation of hydroelectric power. The use of water for power captures the interdependence of energy and water. Source - Wikimedia Commons

Flo Bullough writes on the concept of the water-energy nexus; its implications for energy and water security and the impact of climate change and future planning and regulation. 

I first came across the concept of the water-energy nexus when the former UK Chief Scientific Advisor John Beddington discussed the interdependence of food, water and energy as part of his tenure at government: something he described as a ‘perfect storm’. Since then, much has been written about this topic and below is an overview of the issues as they relate to the geosciences.

Tarbela Dam on the Indus river in pakistan. The dam was completed in 1974 and was designed to store water from the Indus River for irrigation, flood control, and the generation of hydroelectric power. The use of water for power captures the interdependence of energy and water. Source - Wikimedia Commons

Tarbela Dam on the Indus river in pakistan. The dam was completed in 1974 and was designed to store water from the Indus River for irrigation, flood control, and the generation of hydroelectric power. The use of water for power captures the interdependence of energy and water. Source – Wikimedia Commons

Water stress and scarcity is one of the most urgent cross-cutting challenges facing the world today and is intrinsically linked with the need for energy.  Water is required for extraction, transport and processing of fuel as well as to process fuels, for cooling in power plants and for irrigation in the case of biofuels. While energy is required for pumping, transportation and the purification of water, for desalination, and for wastewater.  The interconnectedness is such that water and energy cannot be addressed as separate entities. This interdependence is termed the ‘water-energy nexus’, an approach which allows a more holistic assessment of energy and water security issues. Water scarcity is intensifying due to excessive withdrawal , whilst concern for energy provision is sparked by diminishing fossil fuel reserves and the built-in problem of CO2 emissions and climate change.

Over the last 50 years, the amount of water withdrawals has tripled while the amount of reliable supply has remained constant. This has resulted in depletion of long term water reservoirs and aquifers, most acutely in emerging economies with high population growth such as China, India and areas in the Middle East. Additionally, pressures such as the growing cost of fuel extraction, climate change and the of the energy mix has put pressure on the security of energy supply.

Map of the global distribution of economic and physical water scarcity as of 2006. Source - Wikimedia Commons

Map of the global distribution of economic and physical water scarcity as of 2006. Source – Wikimedia Commons

Energy limited by water

The energy sector relies heavily on the use and availability of water for many of its core processes. Resource exploitation, the transport of fuels, energy transformation and power plants account for around 35% of water use globally. Thermoelectric power plants are particularly thirsty and use significant amounts of water accounting for the majority of water use by the energy sector. In the USA in 2007, thermoelectric power generation, primarily comprising coal, natural gas and nuclear energy, generated 91% of the total electricity and the associated cooling systems account for 40% of USA freshwater withdrawals (King et al., 2008).

Of the different types of power plants, gas fired plants consume the least water per unit of energy produced, whereas coal powered plants consume roughly twice as much water, and nuclear plants two to three times as much. By contrast, wind and solar photovoltaic energy consume minimal water and are the most water-efficient forms of electricity production.

Comparative water consumption values by energy type. Data source - WssTP

Comparative water consumption values by energy type. Data source – WssTP

There has been much discussion over the variable CO2 contributions of different fuels but these can be misleading, as the consideration of water consumption (as opposed to withdrawal, see Link) is often omitted. For example, unconventional fracked gas is often presented as a preferable source of energy over coal due to its reduced associated CO2 emissions, but the extraction of fracked gas consumes seven times more water than natural gas, oil extraction from oil sands requires up to 20 times more than conventional drilling and bio fuels can consume thousands times more water due to the need for irrigation. Additionally, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology has the capacity to remove CO2 from the system but is also estimated to need 30-100% more water when added to a coal fired power plant. Looking at carbon intensity alone may result in a scenario where electricity production is constrained by water scarcity, while global demand for electricity increases.

Water limited by Energy

The flipside to the need for water for energy production is the need for energy in order to produce and deliver water for drinking and other domestic, agricultural and industrial use. Domestic water heating accounts for 3.6% of total USA

Water treatment works. Source - Wikimedia Commons

Water treatment works. Source – Wikimedia Commons

energy consumption (King et al., 2008) while supply and conveyance of water is also energy-intensive and is estimated to use over 3% of USA total electricity. Energy is required at every step of the supply chain, from pumping ground water (530 kW h M-1 for 120 m depth), to surface water treatment (the average plant uses 370 kWh M-1) and transport and home heating (King et al., 2008). Water treatment will require even more energy with the addition of treatment technologies and purification measures.  Water companies in the UK report increases of over 60% in electricity usage since 1990 due to advanced water treatment and increased connection rates, and conservative estimates predict increases of a further 60-100% over 15 years in order to meet the myriad relevant EU directives. This increased energy use may result in displacement of the pollution problem from that in water bodies to build up of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Desalination

One of the most problematic developments in the competition for water and energy is the growth of desalination. It is used in areas suffering from water scarcity, but have viable energy sources to power the energy-intensive purification process. In areas such as the Middle East, the Mediterranean and Western USA, governments have increased their investment in desalination technology in order to secure a more stable water supply. However, the high-energy requirements, steep operational costs, wastewater disposal issues and large CO2 emissions often make this an unsustainable solution.

Desalination is often made economical through access to cheap, local energy sources and an abundant water source. This

Desalination can be very energy intensive. A view across a reverse osmosis desalination plant. Source - Wikimedia Commons

Desalination can be very energy intensive. A view across a reverse osmosis desalination plant. Source – Wikimedia Commons

usually precludes the adoption of desalination in many land-locked countries, as operational costs increase with distance from the water source. However, increased water stress is leading to calls for more ambitious projects such as the planned Red Sea-Dead Sea project (see an earlier Four Degrees post on this) to build a desalination plant and a 180 km pipeline through Israel, Palestine and Jordan.

Desalination can use 10-12 times as much energy as standard drinking water treatment, and is expensive, unsustainable and can lead to increased CO2 emissions (King et al., 2008). These undesirable effects have led to widespread opposition to desalination in areas such as California and Chennai, India. Utilising renewable energy resources, coupled with the use of saline or wastewater for cooling at the power plants, could make the process more sustainable.Water and energy are set to become increasingly interdependent, and by 2050 water consumption to generate electricity is forecast to more than double.

The Impact of Water Scarcity

Freshwater scarcity is a growing issue and by 2030, demand is set to outstrip

India is a very green and wet country courtesy of its regular monsoons but poor management and overexploitation has left is with problems with water scarcity. Source - Wikimedia Commons

India is a very green and wet country courtesy of its regular monsoons but overexploitation of its water resources has left it with problems with water scarcity. Source – Wikimedia Commons

supply by 40%. This is due in part to economic and population growth, but also the rise of aspirational lifestyles, which creates demand for more water-intensive products. This increase in demand will put additional pressure onto water-stressed regions, as well as intensifying current trans-boundary water conflicts. The issue of water shortages often intersects geographically with fragile or weak governments and institutions that may lack the capacity to put in place measures to address water security. In 2004, 29% of India’s groundwater reserves resided in areas that were rated semi-critical to overexploited. About 60% of India’s existing and planned power plants are located in water-stressed areas and there are plans to build a further 59 GW of capacity, around 80% of which will be in areas of water stress and scarcity.

Click on the image to watch an animation showing the average yearly change in mass, in cm of water, during 2003-2010, over the Indian subcontinent. Source - Wikimedia Commons

Click on the image to watch an animation showing the average yearly change in mass, in cm of water, during 2003-2010, over the Indian subcontinent. Source – Wikimedia Commons

Climate change impacts

Climate change presents a challenge to business-as-usual assumptions about future energy and water provision. Predicted major heat waves and droughts will add pressure to both water and energy security. Climate change is set to affect areas around the world in unprecedented ways; in southern Europe, temperatures are likely to rise, and drought will become more common in a region already vulnerable to water stress. Particularly in Spain, a country that derived 14.3% of its electricity production from hydropower in 2010, where hydroelectric plants have been under considerable stress in the last 20 years due to long running issues with drought (Perez et al., 2009;  Trading Economics, 2013). Power cuts caused by extreme weather events, which are expected to become more frequent, will affect areas that rely heavily on energy-intensive ground water extraction for drinking water.

The 2013 EIA Energy Outlook up to 2040 shows steady increases in the need for all fuel types for energy use. Source - Wikimedia Commons

The 2013 EIA Energy Outlook up to 2040 shows steady increases in the need for all fuel types for energy use. Source – Wikimedia Commons

What can be done?

The conflict between more water-intensive energy production and the water needs of a growing population, seeking a better quality of life, will exacerbate an already stressed water-energy nexus.Additionally, Climate change is now considered an issue of national security in many countries, threatening both people and the environment within and across state boundaries. For this reason, climate change mitigation and adaptation must be managed at a new strategic level, beyond that of national law making. A more holistic approach to management of environmental change, water and energy security will also be required.  It will also require strategic planning of water and energy security over much longer timescales than previously.New water and energy production plants must be sited with consideration for water withdrawal, consumption and local power accessibility in addition to future unpredictability in climate as the lifetime of such developments is several decades or more.

Regulatory Changes

Another important tool to address these issues is regulation. Current regulatory frameworks such as the European Climate and Energy Package and the Water Framework Directive (WFD) need to be developed in light of the water-energy nexus model. The EU is committed to 20-30% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2020 compared to levels in 1990, with reductions of up to 50% by 2030 and 80% by 2050 under negotiation. In contrast, the WFD requires additional treatment measures and this will need additional energy, exacerbating tensions between water and energy demand.

There are many policy instruments that can be used to regulate the role of water and energy management, such as water pricing and charges on carbon emissions to incentivise sustainable behaviour. A recent example of this includes the new  US Environment Protection Agency announcement that they will be limiting greenhouse gas emissions for all new electricity generating power plants for coal and gas.  The development of CCS technology could reduce the carbon footprint of power plants, but water consumption implications should be taken into consideration. Adoption of disincentives for certain types of land-use change and stricter building and engineering regulations could also be introduced to increase resilience against extreme weather.

The growing geopolitical issues of water location and scarcity will need to be managed through adaptable water sharing agreements, since many of the world’s largest and most important river basins, such as the Mekong River, which passes

Map of the Mekong River - The long and complicated route of the Mekong river and its intersection with many borders shows the complexity of water management. Source - Wikimedia Commons

Map of the Mekong River – The long and complicated route of the Mekong river and its intersection with many borders shows the complexity of water management. Source – Wikimedia Commons

through south-east Asia, cut across many borders. Co-management strategies such as shared water level and quality information will become important so as the water systems can be managed effectively. Governments must also improve their resilience to extreme weather conditions individually and collectively.

A greater focus on recycling energy- and water-intensive commodities would also alleviate water stresses when taken together with other measures. Education about recycling and water and energy conservation programmes could produce benefits, but also require investment and careful management.

This broad set of issues can only be effectively ameliorated through a holistic approach. A broad analytic framework is needed to evaluate the water-energy relationship, and this must be balanced with local policy contexts and different regulatory measures to ensure water and energy are sustainably managed in the 21st century.

A version of this post first appeared in the European Federation of Geologists magazine ‘European Geologist‘. 

References and Further Reading

Gassert, F., Landis, M., Luck, M., Reig, P., Shiao, T. 2013. Aqueduct Global Maps 2.0. Aqueduct, World Resources Institute. (accessed here in March 2013: http://aqueduct.wri.org/publications)

Glassman, D., Wucker, M., Isaacman, T., Champilou, C. 2011. The Water-Energy Nexus: Adding Water to the Energy Agenda. A World Policy Paper. (accessed here in March 2013: http://www.worldpolicy.org/policy-paper/2011/03/18/water-energy-nexus)

IEA World Energy Outlook 2011. (accessed here in March 2013: http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/speeches/AmbJonesDeloitteConference21MayNN.pdf)

King, C, W., Holman, A, S.,  Webber, M, E. 2008. Thirst for energy. Nature Geoscience, 1, 283-286.

Lee, B., Preston, F., Kooroshy, J., Bailey, R., Lahn, G. 2012. Resources Futures. Chatham House. (accessed here in March 2013: http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/187947)

Perez Perez, L., Barreiro-Hurle, J. 2009. Assessing the socio-economic impacts of drought in the Ebro River Basin. Spanish Journal of Agricultural Research, 7, No 2, 269-280.

Trading Economics. Electricity Production from Hydroelectric Sources (%of total) in Spain. (accessed here in March 2013: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/spain/electricity-production-from-hydroelectric-sources-percent-of-total-wb-data.html)

WssTP The European Water Platform. 2011. Water and Energy: Strategic vision and research needs. (accessed here in March 2013: http://www.wsstp.eu/content/default.asp?PageId=750&LanguageId=0)

Climate and Policy Roundup – January 2014

January 27, 2014
Climate and Policy Roundup – January 2014
The European Commission, Brussels - Source: Sébastien Bertrand, Wikimedia Commons.

News

  • EU announces climate and energy goals for 2030

The European commission has announced a target to reduce its emissions by 40% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. It also stated that 27% of total energy production should come from renewable sources. The announcement came on 22 January following intense negotiations between its member states.

The European Commission, Brussels - Source: Sébastien Bertrand, Wikimedia Commons.

The European Commission, Brussels – Source: Sébastien Bertrand, Wikimedia Commons.

The 40% reduction is at the high end of the range of projected decisions, and is the toughest climate change target of any region in the world. The renewable energy target of 27% is an EU-wide binding agreement, meaning that individual states are not obliged to commit to increasing renewables to this level.

The decision to remove country-specific targets places faith in individual states to meet these targets.

The EU targets are the first to be announced ahead of the international meeting that will take place in Paris in 2015, where world governments will discuss a global framework to avoid dangerous levels of emissions and global warming. Every country is expected to announce its own emission and energy targets ahead of the meeting.

The UK energy and climate change secretary Ed Davey opposed the target but was overruled as other big member states such as France, Germany and Italy backed it.

More details and commentaries can be found on Carbon Brief. A step-by-step account of the day can be found on The Guardian website. You can watch the press conference here.

  • UK Chief Scientific Adviser talks climate

The UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Mark Walport will give a series of lectures on climate change at Science and Discovery Centres around the country. The tour will kick-off at the Museum of Science and Industry in Manchester on January 28th. It will continue throughout February and March 2014 with events in Bristol, Belfast, Birmingham, London and Edinburgh.

  • US sets greenhouse gas targets for power plants
A coal fired power plant in Minnesota. Source - Wikimedia Commons

A coal fired power plant in Minnesota. Source – Wikimedia Commons

The US Environmental Protection agency have recently published a rule that governs the limit of the amount of greenhouse-gas emissions that can be released from power plants. The rule effectively means that any new coal-fired power plants built in the US must capture and sequester around 40% of their emissions. This post on the Union of Concerned Scientists‘ website  focusses on the science around this new policy initiative.

  • The EU goes blue
Source: Wikimedia Commons.

Source: Wikimedia Commons.

The European Commission unveiled an action plan to harvest renewable energy from Europe’s Seas and Oceans, otherwise known as “Blue Energy”. This includes developing technologies to capture energy from waves, tides and temperature differences in the water. It is thought that the resources available in the world’s waters could exceed the world’s present and projected future energy needs. The Commission has set up an Ocean Energy Forum to address the challenges faced by the Blue Energy sector, including high cost of technology and complicated licensing rules.

  • Erratic weather over the festive season

There has been much written about the erratic weather and devastating flooding around the UK over the festive period. With particular focus on the impacts of the cuts in the Department of Farming and Rural Affairs and the Environment Agency and whether this would have an impact in the future. Now a new report says that spending plans have a £500 million shortfall over 25 years which could put more than 250,000 homes at risk. See the story on BBC News – Flood funds gap puts ‘250,000’ homes at risk’ 

  • More El Nino in a warming world
The 1997 El Nino seen by TOPEX/Poseidon. Source - Wikimedia Commons

The 1997 El Nino seen by TOPEX/Poseidon. Source – Wikimedia Commons

This week there have been a few stories on the mutual impact of Climate Change and El Nino. This article in Nature discussed how the frequency of extreme El Nino events could double as the world warms while others discussed concern over 2013 being the hottest year on record despite it not being an El Nino year, normally a key driver of hotter years.

  • Exploring one of the world’s most mysterious seas

The next big project for the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) is to unravel the geological history of the South China Sea. In particular, the project will focus on  the formation of the Sea, due to its unique position between the highest point on Earth in Himalayas and the deepest point, the Mariana Trench.

The South China Sea. Source - Wikimedia Commons.

The South China Sea. Source – Wikimedia Commons.

Research highlights

  • A distant connection between the North Atlantic Ocean and Antarctic sea ice
Antarctic mountains and pack ice - Source: Jason Auch, Wikimedia Commons.

Antarctic mountains and pack ice – Source: Jason Auch, Wikimedia Commons.

Temperature changes in the North Atlantic Ocean could directly influence the amount of sea ice in Antarctica, a new study has shown. This could explain the observed increase in Antarctic sea ice, despite the region experiencing the most pronounced amount of warming.

Researchers from the Courant Institute of Mathematical Science at New York University looked at satellite data, observations of ocean temperature and data from 18 Antarctic research stations. Using this data and a global atmospheric climate model, they found a relationship between decade-long winter temperatures in the North and tropical Atlantic surface waters and the concentration of Antarctic sea ice.

Their results suggest that the Atlantic Ocean could play an important role in influencing Antarctic climate, and should be taken into account when modelling future impacts of climate change.

The results were published in the journal Nature.

  • Ancient moss reveals Arctic warming unprecedented in 44,000 years
Baffin Islans - Source: Wes Gill, Wikimedia Commons.

Baffin Island – Source: Wes Gill, Wikimedia Commons.

Present-day temperatures in the Canadian Arctic are warmer than the natural historical variability of the past 44,000, researchers have suggested.

A team led by scientists from the University of Boulder, Colorado, collected and analysed 365 moss samples from 110 locations on Baffin Island in the eastern Canadian Arctic. The mosses were originally buried under ice and have been exposed by the recent warming of this region.

Radiocarbon dating of these biological samples suggested that the region is warmer now than in any century in the past 5000 years, and in some areas warmer than in the past 44,000 years. The authors conclude that human activities have led to unprecedented warmth in the region.

The results were published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

  • El Nino events twice as likely in a warming world

Higher surface water temperature in the eastern Pacific Ocean in a warming world could increase the frequency of extreme El Nino events, an international team of scientists has shown. Anomalous El Nino events can disrupt global weather patterns, causing catastrophic floods and droughts in different regions of western South America, as well as severely impact marine and bird life.

The research team used a series of twenty global climate models to simulate rainfall associated with extreme El Nino events during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, up to the year 2090.

Their results suggest that extreme events will occur more frequently during this century than in the past due to climate change. This could lead to more occurrences of extreme weather, the authors warned.

The results were published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Around EGU

Flo and Marion

Policy Focus: 1 – Creating value from Waste

January 10, 2014

Waste and recycling is a growing issue in a world where abundant resources are diminishing. This week Flo Bullough looks at recent policy activity in the area of ‘valuing waste streams’ and the geo-relevant example of Rare Earth Elements.

This week, the House of Lords Science and Technology committee has been taking oral evidence on the topic of ‘Generating value from waste’ with a particular focus on the technology and processes used to

House of Lords Chamber. Source - Wikimedia Commons

House of Lords Chamber. Source – Wikimedia Commons

salvage raw materials from waste and what the government can do to encourage and assist progress in this area.

This topic was also discussed in a recent European Commission consultation on the Review of European Waste Management Targets and the Raw Material initiative which highlights the importance of recycling to ensure safe access to raw materials. Consultations like these seek to engage with experts in the relevant field and are useful research and fact-finding exercises to inform future government policy.

This is all part of a wider plan to try and incorporate the disposal and cost of waste into the manufacturing life cycle. Additionally, waste is not just a cost burden but can also be a source of valuable materials that can be recycled.  In 2009 Friends of the Earth published a report entitled Gone to Waste – The valuable resources that European countries bury and burn. This included data on the value of the waste we don’t recycle and the associated CO2 emissions. The report also attempted to calculate the monetary value of recyclables. They found that in the UK in 2004, the value of materials classified as ‘key recyclables’ that had been disposed of as waste,  was a minimum of £651 million (based on values for materials such as glass, paper, iron, steel and biowaste. Rare earth elements were not included in their study).

800px-Wysypisko

Landfill Site. Source – Wikimedia Commons.

Geo-Relevant Example – Rare Earth Elements

220px-IPhone_Internals

Internal view of an iPhone. Rare earth elements are used in the manufacture of electronics such as smart phones but when replaced often end up in landfill. Source – Wikimedia Commons

The concept of valuable waste is particularly true of the rare earth elements that end up in waste streams through discarded electronics. Demand for rare earth elements is soaring while scarcity and market cost is increasing. Rare earth elements are essential to many commonplace electronics such as mobile phones and computers as well as in renewable technology such as wind power. The supply of these materials is finite and the market is currently dominated by China (see this excellent post from Geology for Global Development on the issue) which has its own geopolitical implications and so increasing focus from both an environmental and economic perspective is to extract these valuable materials from waste streams.

In terms of current research into Rare Earth Element recycling, Japan is the only place where significant research is being undertaken. An example of this is Hitachi who are aiming to be able to recycle electric motor magnets. It was also announced last year that the US is to build a $120 million ‘Critical Materials’ institute in Iowa which will focus, amongst other things on developing recycling techniques.

For more information see the following links:

Chemistry World – Recycling rare earth elements using ionic liquids

Mining.com – Rare earths recycling on the rise

POST note from the Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology – Rare Earth Elements

 

Climate and Policy Roundup – November 2013

December 3, 2013

From London to Warsaw and Tokyo: Flo Bullough and Marion Ferrat discuss some of last month’s hot topics in the climate and policy world.

News

UN Warsaw Climate Talks

COP19_opening_(22)

United Nations Climate Change COP19 Conference. Source – Wikimedia Commons

The UN’s Climate Change Conference in Warsaw concluded this week at the end of a 30-hour deadlock in decision making over the wording of the final deal. After a series of controversies including hunger strikes, walkouts and standoffs the meeting ended with the a deal  hammered out. Countries have until early 2015 to publish their plans on curbing greenhouse gas emissions. There was also much discussion over the ‘Loss and Damage’ framework: delegates agreed to set up a compensation mechanism. Under the agreement, countries will receive some aid if hit by natural disasters but developed countries won’t be considered liable, and the fund won’t start functioning until 2020, the Guardian reported. See the link for more information.

Carbon Brief: Warsaw climate negotiations achieve nuggets of progress but defer major decisions: http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2013/11/warsaw-climate-negotiations-achieve-nuggets-of-progress,-but-defer-major-decisions/

On the back of the conference, Nature published an editorial reviewing the state of the world’s climate targets. Despite certain drawbacks and the general gloomy feeling about political action on climate change,  they concluded: “there is reason for hope”.

House of Lords report on Scientific Infrastructure

220px-House_of_Lords_chamber_-_toward_throne

House of Lords Chamber. Source – UK Parliament, Wikimedia Commons.

Earlier in the summer, the House of Lords Science and Technology Committee launched an inquiry into Scientific Infrastructure. The inquiry was launched to collect evidence on large and medium-sized scientific infrastructure currently available in the UK. It aimed to consider the future needs and strategic planning, funding and governance arrangements, international partnerships and partnerships with industry. The final report for this inquiry has now been launched and highlights the following geo-relevant areas.

 – The significant investment and the success of the Diamond Light Source Synchrotron facility

 – The varied and sophisticated nature of work done by the following important NERC funded institutions

  • British Antarctic Survey, British Geological Survey, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, National Centre for Earth Observation and the National Oceanography Centre

House of Lords Publication on Scientific Infrastructure: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201314/ldselect/ldsctech/76/76.pdf

20 things policy makers need to know about science and 20 things scientists need to know about policy-makers!

800px-Upper_Fairfield_Township_gas_well_2a

Science and policy have collided on contentious issues such as shale gas, these tips attempt to help both sides of the process! Source – Ruhrfisch, Wikimedia Commons.

British and Australian scientists put together a list of tips that could help policy-makers and politicians which was published in Nature. These include the importance of bias sample size, randomization and data dredging. By way of response, there was also a ‘Top 20’ of things scientists need to know about policy making written by Chris Tyler at the Guardian.

Nature: Twenty tips for interpreting scientific claims: http://www.nature.com/news/policy-twenty-tips-for-interpreting-scientific-claims-1.14183

The Guardian: Top 20 things politicians need to know about science: http://www.theguardian.com/science/2013/nov/20/top-20-things-politicians-need-to-know-about-science

The Guardian: Top 20 things scientists need to know about policy-making:  http://www.theguardian.com/science/2013/dec/02/scientists-policy-governments-science

Japan scales back on climate change emissions targets

The Japanese government has scaled back its emissions targets after deciding the 25% reduction was too unrealistic. The shift back to coal, oil and gas for power following the Fukishima disaster has hindered recent progress in reductions.

Phys Org: Japan dials back climate change emissions target: http://phys.org/news/2013-11-japan-dials-climate-emissions.html

USGS to monitor water usage in thermoelectric power generation

In line with the ongoing interdependence between water and energy, the United States Geological Survey announced they are to start reporting water usage during thermoelectric power generation in order to quantify the contribution of this energy source to the overall use of water.

USGS Newsroom: Water watch for electric energy production: http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3735&from=rss

Typhoon Haiyan

Haiyan_Nov_7_2013_1345Z

Satellite image of Typhoon Haiyan. Source – NASA, Wikimedia Commons.

Typhoon Haiyan hit Southeast Asia in early November: an exceptionally powerful tropical cyclone that devastated portions of Southeast Asia, particularly the Philippines, It is the deadliest Philippine typhoon on record,killing at least 5,632 people in that country alone. There has been much discussion about the sometime assumed contribution of climate change to the disaster although this is rejeteced by many scientists.

Nature: Did climate change cause Typhoon Haiyan? http://www.nature.com/news/did-climate-change-cause-typhoon-haiyan-1.14139

Budget hits keeling curve 

The Scripps Institution of Oceanography in California is seeking donations to maintain the historic ‘Keeling Curve’; a 55-year record of rising CO2 levels following years of lack of funding.

The Keeling Curve: Atmospheric CO2 concentrations as measured at Mauna Loa Observatory. Source - Narayanese, Wikimedia Commons

The Keeling Curve: Atmospheric CO2 concentrations as measured at Mauna Loa Observatory. Source – Narayanese, Wikimedia Commons

Nature: Budget crunch hits keeling curve: http://www.nature.com/news/budget-crunch-hits-keeling-s-curves-1.14206

Impacts of U.S. Shutdown on Earth and Space Science

The effect of the US Government shutdown for 16 days in October had

Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station. Source - U.S. Antarctic Program, National Science Foundation.

Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station. Source – U.S. Antarctic Program, National Science Foundation.

far reaching consequences; not least for research institutes and programs. Amongst the research funding casualties was the Antarctic research program. US research programs such as the NOAA, NASA and USGS were all impacted. Eos magazine produced by AGU assessed the impact on the Earth Science Community

Eos: Impact on Earth and Space Science: http://sites.agu.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/pdf-of-Govt-Shutdown-story.pdf

Washington Post: Impact on Antarctic Research program: http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/us-government-shutdown-stalls-antarctic-research/2013/11/17/7f7e9af4-4e2b-11e3-be6b-d3d28122e6d4_story.html

Research Highlights

Crusty algae unravel history of Arctic sea ice

The first high-resolution proxy for Arctic sea ice cover has been discovered.

Demosponges and coralline algae - Photograph: K. Rasmussen, Wikimedia Commons.

Demosponges and coralline algae – Source: K. Rasmussen, Wikimedia Commons.

Long-lived algae living on the Arctic seafloor and build up as tree-ring-like structures on calcified rocks and record centuries of sea-ice history. Their sensitivity to both water temperature and sunlight is reflected in the algae’s growth rates and Mg/Ca ratio. The 646-year record discovered shows that sea-ice cover has seen the steepest decline in the past 150 years, with the 20th century characterised by the lowest area of sea-ice since the 14th century.

High-resolution palaeo-records of Arctic sea-ice are crucial to assess pre-anthropogenic changes in ice cover and complement the satellite observation data available for the last few decades only.

Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA http://doi.org/p6g (2013).

20th century warming driven by humans

Human activities are responsible for temperature changes in the 20th century, a new study has shown.

Francesco Estrada and his team used state-of-the art statistical methods to assess the link between temperature, radiative forcing and CO2 emissions over the past century. They showed that temperature changes have been largely driven by atmospheric CO2 concentrations, with a pronounced increase around 1960.

The results also revealed that human activities have driven periods of global warming slowdown, such as the warming ‘hiatus’ observed since the 1990s.

Their study shows that reducing greenhouse gas emissions is an effective way to curb short-term climate warming.

Nature Geosci. doi:10.1038/ngeo1999 (2013).

Natural aerosols matter for climate models

A good understanding of natural aerosol emissions is necessary to better quantify the effects of human activities

Sea spray on Broadstairs Pier - Photograph: Rose and Trev Clough, WIkimedia Commons.

Sea spray on Broadstairs Pier – Source: Rose and Trev Clough, Wikimedia Commons.

on cloud radiative forcing, and therefore climate change.

A study published in Nature showed that uncertainties in the emissions of natural aerosols such as volcanic sulphur dioxide, biogenic volatile organic carbon and sea spray account for almost half of the variability of modelled aerosol radiative forcing.

The results demonstrate the importance of understanding the effects of aerosols on climate in pre-industrial environments, where the impacts of natural aerosols can be studied in detail. This will be important to subsequently reduce model uncertainties of radiative effects in present-day polluted environments.

Nature doi:10.1038/nature12674 (2013).

Around EGU

Radioactive waters, Four Degrees – Marion writes on how radioactive elements make their way to the world’s oceans – and how scientists can use them to study important processes that go on in our waters.

Raising the dead sea, Four Degrees – Flo writes on what can be done to replenish the Dead Sea and

800px-DeadSeaIsrael

Dead Sea, Ein Boqeq. Source – xta11, Wikimedia Commons.

how it fits in with the region’s complex geopolitics.

Geo-Talk on GeoLog – Flo talks about policy and science communication on GeoLog.

Geology for Global Development –  GfGD posted a piece on the role that both science and academia have in successfully bringing together stakeholders in areas where co-operation is essential, but challenging in areas such as Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran.

Events

Grantham Institute Annual Lecture: Professor Thomas Stocker

Professor Thomas Stocker at the Grantham Institute Annual Lecture, Imperial College London - Photograph: Marion Ferrat.

Professor Thomas Stocker at the Grantham Institute Annual Lecture, Imperial College London – Source: Marion Ferrat.

  • Four Degrees went down to the Grantham Institute for Climate Change Annual Lecture at Imperial College London last week,  given by Professor Thomas Stocker, co-chair of the IPCC working group 1. He gave a very thorough and clear talk about the latest IPCC report and the importance of climate targets with a clear message that we need to act now to tackle climate change.

Imperial College news: Act now to limit climate change says climate expert at Grantham Annual Lecture: 1http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/newsandeventspggrp/imperialcollege/naturalsciences/climatechange/newssummary/news_28-11-2013-11-8-22. Professor Stocker also talks about the public perception of climate change and many aspects of the IPCC report in this Nature Climate Change interview.

Rational Parliament Debate: Fracking and Shale Gas

ESA Launch Swarm

Flo and Marion