Geology for Global Development

Flooding

How successful disaster risk reduction looks like. Modelling economics with climate science. How do rocks end up in your food? That and more in Jesse Zondervan’s September 2019 #GfGDpicks #SciComm

How successful disaster risk reduction looks like. Modelling economics with climate science. How do rocks end up in your food? That and more in Jesse Zondervan’s September 2019 #GfGDpicks #SciComm

Each month, Jesse Zondervan picks his favourite posts from geoscience and development blogs/news which cover the geology for global development interest. Here’s a round-up of Jesse’s selections for the last month:

Minimising disaster risk has two dimensions, understanding the hazard and targeting people’s behaviour. Therefore to prevent volcanoes killing people, researchers have studied why people return to dangerous volcanoes during evacuation periods, and have developed an approach to leverage the forecasting techniques used in weather forecasting, to predict volcanic behaviour.

Disasters are most harmful to those with fewer resources. Fortunately, great process is being made in the East Africa region, where the water resource sector, road sector, and various stakeholders communicate with meteorologists to provide impact-based forecasting. Thus, a forecast might read:

“50mm of rainfall falling in Western Kenya on Thursday will lead to some flooding of homes in Kisumu, and will disrupt transport and agriculture. Vulnerable people close to river valleys may want to consider moving to higher ground temporarily”

Read more about countries most vulnerable to hazards: Least Developed Countries (LDCs), Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), and which challenges they face.

Integrating climate science into finance

Climate change continues to be in the news, and the economic sector is waking up to the cost of consequences. However, economists are still downplaying major risks according to a new report by Columbia University’s Earth Institute, Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and the UK’s Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.

The simplified and business-as-usual economic assessments don’t take into account the severity of impacts when thresholds in Earth systems are exceeded, resulting in a potential for mass migration and conflict.

Bad news too for pensions and government funds, many of which invest in index funds, which face unmanageable risk from climate change, according to the director of Stanford University’s Sustainable Finance Initiative. They have a need for more science-based climate policy.

That’s why companies such as Four Twenty Seven’s combined economic modelling with climate science. Their analysis shows some of Europe’s main office areas are at risk to flooding and heat extremes, leading up to a potential of over €1 trillion in damage.

More on how climate experts judge geoengineering, how the geological resource of phosphate cycles through our food system (yes we eat rocks), and how more rainwater can lead to less water available to people along the Nile.

As ever, there is more to explore, check below for more news and ideas.

Climate Change Adaptation

You Asked: How Can Students Make a Difference on Climate Change? At the Earth Institute

Planting the seeds of science diplomacy by Cristina Serra at The World Academy of Sciences

Real Estate Climate Risks: How Will Europe be Impacted? By Léonie Chatain at FourTwentySeven

Economists Are Downplaying Many Major Climate Risks, Says Report at the Earth Institute

Climate Change and Migration in Vulnerable Countries by Mariam Traore Chazalnoël at the UN Sustainable Development Blog

Big Data, Rising Tides: How Advances in Free Remote Sensing Technology Can Help Cities to Prepare for Climate Change by Ran Goldblatt and Nicholas Jones at GIM International

Fund Managers Failed To Anticipate Climate Risk That Led To PG&E Bankruptcy by Jeff McMahon at Forbes

Benefits of Adaptation Measures Outweigh the Costs, Report Says by Maya Earls at E&E News

Sustainability

Not all meat is created equal: How diet changes can sustain world’s food production at the Stevens Institute of Technology

Large transnational corporations play critical role in global natural resource management at Oregon State University

More rain yet less water expected for up to 250 million people along the Nile at Dartmouth College

Geoengineering

How do climate experts think about geoengineering? They get personal. by Sarah DeWeerdt at Anthropocene magazine

Disaster Risk

Volcanoes kill more people long after they first erupt – those deaths are avoidable at The Conversation

New volcanic eruption forecasting technique at the University of Illinois

Impact Based Forecasting is set to save lives and livelihoods in East Africa by George Achia at the Climate & Development Knowledge Network

External Opportunities

The Climate & Development Knowledge Network at the African Climate Risks Conference in Addis Ababa

First-of-its-kind Curriculum Will Focus on Climate Risk and Investment Research at the Earth Institute, Columbia University

Earth Institute Postdoctoral Research Program Now Accepting Applications for 2020

 

Check back next month for more picks!

Follow Jesse Zondervan @JesseZondervan. Follow us @Geo_Dev & Facebook.

The seven frames of climate discussion in the media. How climate liability pushes for corporate action. Are we already unwittingly geoengineering the oceans? Jesse Zondervan’s August 2019 #GfGDpicks #SciComm

The seven frames of climate discussion in the media. How climate liability pushes for corporate action. Are we already unwittingly geoengineering the oceans? Jesse Zondervan’s August 2019 #GfGDpicks #SciComm

Each month, Jesse Zondervan picks his favourite posts from geoscience and development blogs/news which cover the geology for global development interest. Here’s a round-up of Jesse’s selections for the last month:

As Greta Thunberg hits the news with her zero-carbon crossing of the Atlantic, this month discussion on adaptation to climate change is voluminous. Coverage of climate change follow seven distinct frames, depending on the economy and other characteristics of countries, found a US/Vietnam based study.

Where in rich countries the focus lies on science and new discoveries, in low-resource countries the focus tends to be on international relations or natural impacts of climate change. Social progress and the potential for solving problems is the least popular frame, but arguably the most important.

Whilst the media and governments are grappling with adapting to climate change, litigation of companies causing emissions or neglecting climate risk to their facilities and infrastructure starts to really take off. This is driven partly by insuring companies, compensating damage whilst chasing irresponsible companies for negligence.

Though climate change claims and suits threaten any industry linked to hydrocarbons and greenhouse gas emissions, such as transport, manufacturing, agri-business, and finance, the biggest group of companies does not view it as strategic yet. This might change soon as the push for climate-change-related risk reporting in business intensifies.

How to make progress through communicating and applying science

So where is the potential for solving problems? Climate change adaptation planning always makes assumptions, and whether these are reasonable is up for debate. That is why geoscientists at Pennsylvania State University argue there is for wider use of Earth science to identify effective strategies for climate risk management.

Another opportunity for climate researchers to help out is by contributing to Wikipedia, especially information on the Global South, which is underrepresented on the wiki whilst it is overlooked as a communication platform beyond the scientific audience.

Geoengineering – yes/no or are we already doing it?

There is limited knowledge on how geoengineering techniques might affect the environment, making it a risky business for now. Analogies for solar geoengineering are often based on volcanic eruptions. But how accurate is this?

A new study based on numerical models suggests that unlike the disruption of rainfall patterns after a volcanic eruption, the sustained deployment of a geoengineering system would be less significant.

Another study published in Nature Communications this month takes a whole different perspective, arguing we are already geoengineering the ocean by the input of industrial iron fertilizing it. The study found at least half if not all the soluble iron in the air masses of Europe and North America derives from human activities.

Indeed, another study from UC Santa Barbara finds in over half of the oceans the cumulative human impact is increasing significantly and overall has doubled in the recent decade.

As always, there is more to read. Go ahead!

Climate Change Adaptation

Climate change is global—but climate journalism isn’t by Sarah DeWeerdt at Anthropocene

Climate liability is on the rise. Here’s what it looks like by Jennifer Hijazi at E&E News

Investing in Science to Improve Climate Risk Management at Eos

OPINION: Why I believe climate change researchers should contribute to Wikipedia by Katharine Vincent at the Climate and Development Knowledge Network

NEWS: Edit-a-thon helps tackle Wikipedia’s Africa gap by Lisa McNamara at the Climate and Development Knowledge Network

CDP reporting data suggests world’s biggest firms are underestimating climate risks at Acclimatise News

Desertification: A Serious Threat To Southern Europe by Ana Garcia Valdivia at Forbes

The case for retreat in the battle against climate change at ScienceDaily

Ethiopia’s future is tied to water – a vital yet threatened resource in a changing climate by Meron Teferi Taye and Ellen Dyer at The Conversation

Unpicking the datacentre industry’s complicated relationship with climate change by Nicholas Fearn at Computer Weekly

Climate Change Is Making Hawaii’s Beaches More Dangerous by Nathan Eagle at Civil Beat

Sustainability

Human impacts on oceans nearly doubled in recent decade at ScienceDaily

17 Countries, Home to One-Quarter of the World’s Population, Face Extremely High Water Stress at the World Resources Institute

Geoengineering

While we debate geoengineering the ocean, it seems we’re already doing it by Sarah DeWeerdt at Anthropocene

Geoengineering versus a volcano at Carnegie Science

Disaster Risk

Meteotsunami Spotted for the First Time in the Persian Gulf by Katherine Kornei at Eos

‘100-year’ floods will happen every 1 to 30 years, according to new flood maps at EurekAlert

External Opportunities

Opportunity: Senior Research Associate in Low-Carbon Lifestyles and Behaviour, UEA

 

Check back next month for more picks!

Follow Jesse Zondervan @JesseZondervan. Follow us @Geo_Dev & Facebook.

Why California is least prepared for earthquakes. Increasing pressure on geoengineering. Tackling the challenge of groundwater. Jesse Zondervan’s July 2019 #GfGDpicks #SciComm

Why California is least prepared for earthquakes. Increasing pressure on geoengineering. Tackling the challenge of groundwater. Jesse Zondervan’s July 2019 #GfGDpicks #SciComm

Each month, Jesse Zondervan picks his favourite posts from geoscience and development blogs/news which cover the geology for global development interest. Here’s a round-up of Jesse’s selections for the last month:

Earthquake preparedness in the US

Last month has seen two strong earthquakes in California, and in an interview with CNN seismologist Dr Lucy Jones says California is not as well prepared as it could be, especially compared to places like Japan and Chile. Political scientist Matt Motta attributes this to a low electoral incentive for policymakers to work on preventative policies rather than response to earthquake damage, which leads to the conclusion that communicating earthquake risk to people living in hazardous areas is vital to improving preparedness.

To geoengineer or not?

There has also been some debate on geoengineering, with climate scientists at Harvard and MIT arguing that risks of geoengineering may be overstated, whilst Cambridge scholars warn against the social blinding effect of ‘emissions debt’ through the temporary use of solar geoengineering.

At the same time, there is an increasing pressure from insurance companies for cities to adapt to climate change-related risks, and the threat of Antarctic ice collapse raising sea levels dramatically led to the suggestion of artificially snowing ocean water on it in great quantities.

Ultimately, we need research to understand the risks and efficacy of solar engineering, which is why the newly published map for predicting paths of particles emitted in the atmosphere is a welcome addition.

The challenge of groundwater

The challenge to relying on deeper water aquifers to sustain supply is that deeper strata are generally less conducive to extraction, water gets saltier at depth, and finally, it costs more. A new study finds that Americans are drilling deeper, raising concern over the sustainability of water extraction.

A new method of testing groundwater resources using the tidal effects of gravitation on groundwater addresses the challenge of investigating and managing water resources more sustainably.

More this month, the unwavering resistance of Guatemalans in one of the world’s most hazardous areas, the unnoticed climate crisis disasters happening weekly, and the question of sovereignty as Pacific countries drown.

Groundwater

Simple, accurate and inexpensive: A new method for exploring groundwater at the Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)

Americans are drilling deeper than ever for freshwater at University of California – Santa Barbara

Climate Change Adaptation

Insurance Companies Push Cities To Take Climate Action by Sarah Lawrynuik at The Sprawl

What happens when a country drowns? By Sarah Munoz at The Conversation

Climate Risk Disclosure Act Is Good for Your Investments by Nicole Pinko at the Union of Concerned Scientists

Arctic ice loss is worrying, but the giant stirring in the South could be even worse at The Conversation

Geoengineering

Betting on speculative geoengineering may risk an escalating ‘climate debt crisis’ by Shinichiro Asayama and Mike Hulme

Risks of Controversial Geoengineering Approach “May Be Overstated” By John Fialka at E&E News

Chaos theory produces map for predicting paths of particles emitted into the atmosphere at ScienceDaily

Sea level rise: West Antarctic ice collapse may be prevented by snowing ocean water onto it at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Earthquake preparedness in the US

She’s been explaining earthquakes for decades. Here’s where she says California is least prepared by Braden Goyette at CNN

Americans focus on responding to earthquake damage, not preventing it, because they’re unaware of their risk by Matt Motta at The Conversation

Hospitals implement quake-ready technology, teams in seismically active areas by Jacqueline Renfrow at FierceHealthcare

Disaster Risk

‘Artificial intelligence’ fit to monitor volcanoes at GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences

Istanbul: Seafloor study proves earthquake risk for the first time at the Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR)

History, disasters, and resilience: The story of Antigua Guatemala by Barbara Minguez Garcia and Rodrigo Donoso Arias at World Bank Blogs

One climate crisis disaster happening every week, UN warns by Fiona Harvey at The Guardian

External Opportunities

Law and Sustainability Summer School at the Earth System Governance Project

Opportunity: Senior Research Associate in Policy, Politics and Climate Change at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

 

Check back next month for more picks!

Follow Jesse Zondervan @JesseZondervan. Follow us @Geo_Dev & Facebook.

Flooding in some of the world’s most at-risk cities

Flooding in some of the world’s most at-risk cities

What are cities doing to mitigate rising sea-levels? What are the numbers behind the related challenges? In our August ‘Coast’ month, Heather Britton focuses on sea-level rise in the coastal cities of Jakarta, Lagos and London, where barriers and new islands are likely proposed solutions, even if they seem inadequate. [Editor’s note: This post reflects Heather’s personal opinions. These opinions may not reflect official policy positions of Geology for Global Development.]

It is safe to say that the impacts of climate change will be felt in some parts of the world more than others, and that in many regions these impacts are already making themselves apparent. One of the inevitable consequences of global warming is rising sea levels, caused by the dual effects of melting ice caps and the expansion of water volume in the oceans with increased temperatures, amongst other factors. In this week’s blog, I intend to focus on three cities which are under threat from flooding due to sea-level change, and look at how they are coping with the problem of sinking into the sea.

Jakarta

Jakarta is the world’s fastest sinking city, sinking on average 15 cm every year.

Jakarta is the world’s fastest sinking city, sinking on average 15 cm every year. Situated next to the Java sea, and home to 30 million people, there is a very real danger that this city will soon be completely submerged. The source of the problem is not, however, purely sea-level rise, but also to the fact that the city itself is sinking. This is not a purely geological issue and relates to a lack of sources of clean drinking water in the capital. The surface drinking water sources are too polluted to be considered safe places to drink, and a significant number of people are forced to dig their own illegal wells in order to access the cleaner, groundwater reservoirs. Draining the aquifers on which the city rests is causing the gradual subsidence of the region, but until clean drinking water is available to even the poorest of Jakarta’s residents, the problem is likely to continue into the future.

Current measures to combat the flooding are minimal, although various government officials have tried and failed to make a difference, for example by beginning a clean-up of waterways in the city and setting out plans to develop at least a rudimentary sewage system. The city’s most ambitious move has been the construction of the city’s coastal wall (which will likely be submerged itself by 2030). This has been constructed in collaboration with the Dutch government in a project called the National Capital Integrated Coastal Development program. A further idea associated with this project is to put an even larger sea wall off the coast of Indonesia, essentially cutting off Jakarta from the rest of the Java sea. Critics, however, say that without solving the problems that are leading to flooding within the city, building larger and larger barriers to keep out the sea is likely to be ineffective.

Lagos

A large-scale idea to grow the economy in Lagos is to create a new financial centre, on a new ‘island’ called Eko Atlantic.

Lagos (Portuguese for lakes) is one of the most populous cities in Africa. Climate change has contributed to extreme storms, rainfall and rising sea levels, aggravating a flooding problem that has severely affected this country for decades. The people of Lagos are living on what is essentially a series of islands. Much of the city was built on top of swampland, which has since been reclaimed and settled, destroying one of the barriers which would have protected the city from the ever-encroaching ocean. Poor infrastructural planning has meant that most of the ground surface in the city is impenetrable, and water simply has nowhere to go but remain on the surface, taking days to drain away and leaving thousands impacted by flooding year upon year. One example of this is the terrible flooding that the city experienced in 2012.

A large-scale idea to grow the economy in Lagos is to create a new financial centre, on a new ‘island’ called Eko Atlantic. Plans for this island have, to some extent, considered the flooding risk – the centre will be surrounded by a sea wall – but this would likely worsen the flooding situation elsewhere. The effect on the poor, who make up 70% of the city’s population, would be greatest, as the slums of the city sit in the city’s lagoon regions where floodwater is most likely to pool and cause the greatest disruption to residents.

The Thames barrier in London, Stevebidmead on pixabay.

When constructed, it was thought that this barrier might be closed every 2 – 3 years. The current rate of closure is currently double this, at 6 – 7 closures a year, and this is only likely to increase.

London

During the last ice age, the North of the UK was weighed down under the weight of the ice that was amassed there. After this ice melted, isostatic rebound has resulted in the uplift of Scotland by ~ 1 mm, accompanied by the sinking of the south, including the UK capital city of London.

The Thames Barrier was constructed in response to the flood risk in London and was made operational in 1982. The structure is designed to protect the city against 1 in 100-year flooding events. When storm surges combine with high tide, waters can rise by up to 2 m, making this one of the regular causes of flooding in the city. When constructed, it was thought that this barrier might be closed every 2 – 3 years. The current rate of closure is currently double this, at 6 – 7 closures a year, and this is only likely to increase. With the impact of climate change, sea levels could have risen up to 115 cm by 2100, if emissions continue at the current rate.

There is hope that this prediction will not be the case, however. The UK has committed to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and is the first country to do so. This demonstrates the ambition to combat climate change and minimise warming, but many argue that a 2050 target is not ambitious enough to prevent most of the adverse impacts that we are already beginning to see materialising around the world today.

Cities are going to have to adapt to increased flood risk if they are to survive in a world that has warmed by 1.5 degrees Celsius or greater, and these examples are just a few of those that are at risk. In achieving UN Sustainability Goals 11 (sustainable cities and communities) and 9 (Industry, innovation and Infrastructure), flood adaptation measures will be more essential than ever before.

**This article expresses the personal opinions of the author (Heather Britton). These opinions may not reflect an official policy position of Geology for Global Development. **