Geology for Global Development

Flooding

Why California is least prepared for earthquakes. Increasing pressure on geoengineering. Tackling the challenge of groundwater. Jesse Zondervan’s July 2019 #GfGDpicks #SciComm

Why California is least prepared for earthquakes. Increasing pressure on geoengineering. Tackling the challenge of groundwater. Jesse Zondervan’s July 2019 #GfGDpicks #SciComm

Each month, Jesse Zondervan picks his favourite posts from geoscience and development blogs/news which cover the geology for global development interest. Here’s a round-up of Jesse’s selections for the last month:

Earthquake preparedness in the US

Last month has seen two strong earthquakes in California, and in an interview with CNN seismologist Dr Lucy Jones says California is not as well prepared as it could be, especially compared to places like Japan and Chile. Political scientist Matt Motta attributes this to a low electoral incentive for policymakers to work on preventative policies rather than response to earthquake damage, which leads to the conclusion that communicating earthquake risk to people living in hazardous areas is vital to improving preparedness.

To geoengineer or not?

There has also been some debate on geoengineering, with climate scientists at Harvard and MIT arguing that risks of geoengineering may be overstated, whilst Cambridge scholars warn against the social blinding effect of ‘emissions debt’ through the temporary use of solar geoengineering.

At the same time, there is an increasing pressure from insurance companies for cities to adapt to climate change-related risks, and the threat of Antarctic ice collapse raising sea levels dramatically led to the suggestion of artificially snowing ocean water on it in great quantities.

Ultimately, we need research to understand the risks and efficacy of solar engineering, which is why the newly published map for predicting paths of particles emitted in the atmosphere is a welcome addition.

The challenge of groundwater

The challenge to relying on deeper water aquifers to sustain supply is that deeper strata are generally less conducive to extraction, water gets saltier at depth, and finally, it costs more. A new study finds that Americans are drilling deeper, raising concern over the sustainability of water extraction.

A new method of testing groundwater resources using the tidal effects of gravitation on groundwater addresses the challenge of investigating and managing water resources more sustainably.

More this month, the unwavering resistance of Guatemalans in one of the world’s most hazardous areas, the unnoticed climate crisis disasters happening weekly, and the question of sovereignty as Pacific countries drown.

Groundwater

Simple, accurate and inexpensive: A new method for exploring groundwater at the Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)

Americans are drilling deeper than ever for freshwater at University of California – Santa Barbara

Climate Change Adaptation

Insurance Companies Push Cities To Take Climate Action by Sarah Lawrynuik at The Sprawl

What happens when a country drowns? By Sarah Munoz at The Conversation

Climate Risk Disclosure Act Is Good for Your Investments by Nicole Pinko at the Union of Concerned Scientists

Arctic ice loss is worrying, but the giant stirring in the South could be even worse at The Conversation

Geoengineering

Betting on speculative geoengineering may risk an escalating ‘climate debt crisis’ by Shinichiro Asayama and Mike Hulme

Risks of Controversial Geoengineering Approach “May Be Overstated” By John Fialka at E&E News

Chaos theory produces map for predicting paths of particles emitted into the atmosphere at ScienceDaily

Sea level rise: West Antarctic ice collapse may be prevented by snowing ocean water onto it at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Earthquake preparedness in the US

She’s been explaining earthquakes for decades. Here’s where she says California is least prepared by Braden Goyette at CNN

Americans focus on responding to earthquake damage, not preventing it, because they’re unaware of their risk by Matt Motta at The Conversation

Hospitals implement quake-ready technology, teams in seismically active areas by Jacqueline Renfrow at FierceHealthcare

Disaster Risk

‘Artificial intelligence’ fit to monitor volcanoes at GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences

Istanbul: Seafloor study proves earthquake risk for the first time at the Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR)

History, disasters, and resilience: The story of Antigua Guatemala by Barbara Minguez Garcia and Rodrigo Donoso Arias at World Bank Blogs

One climate crisis disaster happening every week, UN warns by Fiona Harvey at The Guardian

External Opportunities

Law and Sustainability Summer School at the Earth System Governance Project

Opportunity: Senior Research Associate in Policy, Politics and Climate Change at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

 

Check back next month for more picks!

Follow Jesse Zondervan @JesseZondervan. Follow us @Geo_Dev & Facebook.

Flooding in some of the world’s most at-risk cities

Flooding in some of the world’s most at-risk cities

What are cities doing to mitigate rising sea-levels? What are the numbers behind the related challenges? In our August ‘Coast’ month, Heather Britton focuses on sea-level rise in the coastal cities of Jakarta, Lagos and London, where barriers and new islands are likely proposed solutions, even if they seem inadequate. [Editor’s note: This post reflects Heather’s personal opinions. These opinions may not reflect official policy positions of Geology for Global Development.]

It is safe to say that the impacts of climate change will be felt in some parts of the world more than others, and that in many regions these impacts are already making themselves apparent. One of the inevitable consequences of global warming is rising sea levels, caused by the dual effects of melting ice caps and the expansion of water volume in the oceans with increased temperatures, amongst other factors. In this week’s blog, I intend to focus on three cities which are under threat from flooding due to sea-level change, and look at how they are coping with the problem of sinking into the sea.

Jakarta

Jakarta is the world’s fastest sinking city, sinking on average 15 cm every year.

Jakarta is the world’s fastest sinking city, sinking on average 15 cm every year. Situated next to the Java sea, and home to 30 million people, there is a very real danger that this city will soon be completely submerged. The source of the problem is not, however, purely sea-level rise, but also to the fact that the city itself is sinking. This is not a purely geological issue and relates to a lack of sources of clean drinking water in the capital. The surface drinking water sources are too polluted to be considered safe places to drink, and a significant number of people are forced to dig their own illegal wells in order to access the cleaner, groundwater reservoirs. Draining the aquifers on which the city rests is causing the gradual subsidence of the region, but until clean drinking water is available to even the poorest of Jakarta’s residents, the problem is likely to continue into the future.

Current measures to combat the flooding are minimal, although various government officials have tried and failed to make a difference, for example by beginning a clean-up of waterways in the city and setting out plans to develop at least a rudimentary sewage system. The city’s most ambitious move has been the construction of the city’s coastal wall (which will likely be submerged itself by 2030). This has been constructed in collaboration with the Dutch government in a project called the National Capital Integrated Coastal Development program. A further idea associated with this project is to put an even larger sea wall off the coast of Indonesia, essentially cutting off Jakarta from the rest of the Java sea. Critics, however, say that without solving the problems that are leading to flooding within the city, building larger and larger barriers to keep out the sea is likely to be ineffective.

Lagos

A large-scale idea to grow the economy in Lagos is to create a new financial centre, on a new ‘island’ called Eko Atlantic.

Lagos (Portuguese for lakes) is one of the most populous cities in Africa. Climate change has contributed to extreme storms, rainfall and rising sea levels, aggravating a flooding problem that has severely affected this country for decades. The people of Lagos are living on what is essentially a series of islands. Much of the city was built on top of swampland, which has since been reclaimed and settled, destroying one of the barriers which would have protected the city from the ever-encroaching ocean. Poor infrastructural planning has meant that most of the ground surface in the city is impenetrable, and water simply has nowhere to go but remain on the surface, taking days to drain away and leaving thousands impacted by flooding year upon year. One example of this is the terrible flooding that the city experienced in 2012.

A large-scale idea to grow the economy in Lagos is to create a new financial centre, on a new ‘island’ called Eko Atlantic. Plans for this island have, to some extent, considered the flooding risk – the centre will be surrounded by a sea wall – but this would likely worsen the flooding situation elsewhere. The effect on the poor, who make up 70% of the city’s population, would be greatest, as the slums of the city sit in the city’s lagoon regions where floodwater is most likely to pool and cause the greatest disruption to residents.

The Thames barrier in London, Stevebidmead on pixabay.

When constructed, it was thought that this barrier might be closed every 2 – 3 years. The current rate of closure is currently double this, at 6 – 7 closures a year, and this is only likely to increase.

London

During the last ice age, the North of the UK was weighed down under the weight of the ice that was amassed there. After this ice melted, isostatic rebound has resulted in the uplift of Scotland by ~ 1 mm, accompanied by the sinking of the south, including the UK capital city of London.

The Thames Barrier was constructed in response to the flood risk in London and was made operational in 1982. The structure is designed to protect the city against 1 in 100-year flooding events. When storm surges combine with high tide, waters can rise by up to 2 m, making this one of the regular causes of flooding in the city. When constructed, it was thought that this barrier might be closed every 2 – 3 years. The current rate of closure is currently double this, at 6 – 7 closures a year, and this is only likely to increase. With the impact of climate change, sea levels could have risen up to 115 cm by 2100, if emissions continue at the current rate.

There is hope that this prediction will not be the case, however. The UK has committed to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and is the first country to do so. This demonstrates the ambition to combat climate change and minimise warming, but many argue that a 2050 target is not ambitious enough to prevent most of the adverse impacts that we are already beginning to see materialising around the world today.

Cities are going to have to adapt to increased flood risk if they are to survive in a world that has warmed by 1.5 degrees Celsius or greater, and these examples are just a few of those that are at risk. In achieving UN Sustainability Goals 11 (sustainable cities and communities) and 9 (Industry, innovation and Infrastructure), flood adaptation measures will be more essential than ever before.

**This article expresses the personal opinions of the author (Heather Britton). These opinions may not reflect an official policy position of Geology for Global Development. **

Climate change: to mitigate or to adapt? Managing disaster: Cyclone Fani in India, a stronger Atlantic hurricane season. That and more in Jesse Zondervan’s May 2019 #GfGDpicks #SciComm

Climate change: to mitigate or to adapt? Managing disaster: Cyclone Fani in India, a stronger Atlantic hurricane season. That and more in Jesse Zondervan’s May 2019 #GfGDpicks #SciComm

Each month, Jesse Zondervan picks his favourite posts from geoscience and development blogs/news which cover the geology for global development interest. Here’s a round-up of Jesse’s selections for the last month:

This month Cyclone Fani hit India with full force. An effective mass evacuation resulting in the loss of no human lives is an impressive disaster management feat.

As disaster was averted in India, the Guardian published a briefing on the risk of hurricanes, and whether climate change is to blame for stronger ones. Are people adapting to these changes?

Adapting, argues Marketplace show host Molly Wood in her Wired article, isn’t surrender, it is survival. Can we afford to keep attempting to mitigate climate change if we need to adapt to the effects that are already there?

Susannah Fisher and Andrew Norton agree with Wood that adaptation is often overlooked in climate campaigns. They seek to open our eyes to the adaptation experience that the global South has to offer. Let’s put these good practices to work in Europe! they say.

More this month, better ways to stem arsenic poisoning in Bangladesh, the struggle with landslides in Rio and much more.

Go ahead and look through this month’s picks!

Cyclone Fani

Cyclone Fani hits Indian coast, a million people evacuated at Thomson Reuters Foundation

INTERVIEW – Mass texting and 50,000 volunteers – how India moved a million people to safety by Annie Banerji at Thomson Reuters Foundation

Climate Adaptation

Climate Adaptation isn’t Surrender. It’s Survival by Molly Wood at Wired

Adapting to climate change in Europe: Building a systemic and urgent vision by Susannah Fisher and Andrew Norton at EIT Climate-KIC

Cambodians try out smartphones to track – and ease – climate woes by Jeffrey Barbee at Thomson Reuters Foundation

Climate now biggest driver of migration, study finds by Inga Vesper at SciDevNet

Climate Change

Are hurricanes getting stronger – and is the climate crisis to blame? By Oliver Milman at the Guardian

Lake sediment records reveal recent floods in NW England (UK) unprecedented at ScienceDaily

Climatologist Testifies to Senate Subcommittee Regarding Costs of Extreme Weather by Marie Denoia Aronsohn at State of the Planet

Disaster Risk Reduction

As climate shifts bring ‘horror movie’ floods, Rio struggles to adjust by Karla Mendes & Gregory Scruggs at Thomson Reuters Foundation

China eyes earthquake warning and prediction technology by Chen Xi at Global Times

Sharing Data Helps Puerto Ricans Rebound After Hurricane Maria at Eos Earth & Space News

Ritter Island gives new insights into the dynamics of volcanic landslides at ScienceDaily

Integrated urban flood risk management: Learning from the Japanese experience by Jolanta Kryspin-Watson & Jia Wen Hoe

Geology for Development

Study Identifies Better, Cheaper Ways to Stem Arsenic Poisoning in Bangladesh by Sarah Fecht at State of the Planet

 

Check back next month for more picks!

Follow Jesse Zondervan @JesseZondervan. Follow us @Geo_Dev & Facebook.

When are Californian earthquakes coming back with vengeance? How does climate-change-induced flooding increase inequality? Lessons from Cyclone Idai; that and more in Jesse Zondervan’s April 2019 #GfGDpicks #SciComm

Aftermath damage of the San Francisco earthquake of 1906

Each month, Jesse Zondervan picks his favourite posts from geoscience and development blogs/news which cover the geology for global development interest. Here’s a round-up of Jesse’s selections for the last month:

California seems to be overdue for earthquakes, meaning there has been a so-called earthquake ‘drought’ in the last century. Paleoseismic studies show that this hiatus is unprecedented in the last ten centuries. This means we might see a high frequency of earthquakes coming this century, while a generation who hasn’t experienced any major earthquake has passed.

Furthermore, a related article in the San Francisco Chronicle reports the US Geological Survey projects a major quake along the San Andreas Fault would cause more than 98 billion in building damage and kill up to 7,800 people. The main threat, however, is the aftermath with loss of power for at least three days and half of households without water for at least a month. The study highlights the importance of preparing the population for a quake and its aftermath.

Fortunately, this month also saw the publication of a Californian record of two million tiny earthquakes detected by Caltech scientists. This tenfold increase in the earthquake catalogue tells them more about how faults and earthquakes work and get triggered. Greg Beroza, a Stanford University seismologist says “It’s just like if a new telescope comes along and its magnification is 10 times greater”.

Can climate-change induced flooding increase inequality?

The answer seems to be yes, in fact it does. A report published by the Urban Institute in the US showed that people with poor credit scores suffered bigger drops in scores than those starting with high scores. While home-owners receive insurance pay-outs, costs to renters only increase due to increased demand after major storms.

Similarly the New York City Panel on Climate Change reports climate change is affecting everyday life in New York today, and will hit the poorest neighbourhoods in the future.

Consequently, social vulnerability should be considered when risk is modelled and funding allocated, according to RMS flood specialist Nicole Howe.

 

More perspectives this month on the aftermath and lessons from Cyclone Idai which struck southern Africa in March; the challenge of religious resignation to building resilience against natural hazards in Indonesia and what the new bill on the US National Volcano Warning System means to disaster risk reduction.

Go ahead and look through this month’s picks!

Aftermath and Response to Cyclone Idai

Cyclone Idai shows why long-term disaster resilience is so crucial by Channing Arndt and Claudia Ringler at The Conversation

Cyclone Idai is over – but its health effects will be felt for a long time by Kerrigan McCarthy and Lucille Blumberg at The Conversation

Responding To Cyclone Idai requires a more robust approach by Peter Kamalingin at Oxfam International

Earthquake risk in California

Reassessing California’s Overdue Earthquake Tab by Mary Caperton Morton at Eos Earth & Space Science News

What a major earthquake would do to San Francisco by Kimberley Veklerov at the San Francisco Chronicle

Scientists Uncover California’s Hidden Earthquakes by Shannon Hall at Scientific American

Flooding and inequality

How natural disasters can increase inequality by Gretchen Frazee at PBS

States are turning to data and interactive maps to help residents confront and manage flood risks by Shannon Cunniff at the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF)

Disaster Risk Reduction: Avoiding the Inevitable by Nicola Howe at RMS

New York’s Poor and Ethnic Minority Neighbourhoods to be hit hardest by Climate Change finds NYC Panel on Climate Change by Will Bugler at Acclimatise

Climate Adaptation

7 American cities that could disappear by 2100 by Aria Bendix at Business Insider

Improving Water Resources Management with Satellite Data by Aaron Sidder at EOS Earth and Space Science News

Central America: Climate, Drought, Migration and the Border by Lieutenant Commander Oliver-Leighton Barrett at The Center for Climate & Security

Disaster Risk Reduction

Living with natural disasters – how to change Indonesia’s culture of passive resignation by Juliana Wijaya at The Conversation

Major geological survey hopes to make Indonesia more resistant to deadly tsunamis by Tim Pilgrim at Brunel University London

Hurricane Harvey provides lessons learned for flood resiliency plans at ScienceDaily

US National Volcano Warning System Gains Steam by Forrest Lewis at Eos Earth & Space Science News

External Opportunities

Register for Science and Policy Forum of 2019 Global Platform for DRR at Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR)

The Art of Resilience – Call for art helping build society’s resilience to natural hazards at GFDRR

Register to attend or watch online – Disasters: impact on child poverty and development at the Overseas Development Institute

Teaching Assistantship Applications Open for Sustainable Development Undergraduate Courses at the Earth Institute, Columbia University

Summer 2019 Teaching Assistantship Available in Environmental Science and Policy Program at the Earth Institute, Columbia University

 

Check back next month for more picks!

Follow Jesse Zondervan @JesseZondervan. Follow us @Geo_Dev & Facebook.