Geology for Global Development

hydrogeology

Flooding in some of the world’s most at-risk cities

Flooding in some of the world’s most at-risk cities

What are cities doing to mitigate rising sea-levels? What are the numbers behind the related challenges? In our August ‘Coast’ month, Heather Britton focuses on sea-level rise in the coastal cities of Jakarta, Lagos and London, where barriers and new islands are likely proposed solutions, even if they seem inadequate. [Editor’s note: This post reflects Heather’s personal opinions. These opinions may not reflect official policy positions of Geology for Global Development.]

It is safe to say that the impacts of climate change will be felt in some parts of the world more than others, and that in many regions these impacts are already making themselves apparent. One of the inevitable consequences of global warming is rising sea levels, caused by the dual effects of melting ice caps and the expansion of water volume in the oceans with increased temperatures, amongst other factors. In this week’s blog, I intend to focus on three cities which are under threat from flooding due to sea-level change, and look at how they are coping with the problem of sinking into the sea.

Jakarta

Jakarta is the world’s fastest sinking city, sinking on average 15 cm every year.

Jakarta is the world’s fastest sinking city, sinking on average 15 cm every year. Situated next to the Java sea, and home to 30 million people, there is a very real danger that this city will soon be completely submerged. The source of the problem is not, however, purely sea-level rise, but also to the fact that the city itself is sinking. This is not a purely geological issue and relates to a lack of sources of clean drinking water in the capital. The surface drinking water sources are too polluted to be considered safe places to drink, and a significant number of people are forced to dig their own illegal wells in order to access the cleaner, groundwater reservoirs. Draining the aquifers on which the city rests is causing the gradual subsidence of the region, but until clean drinking water is available to even the poorest of Jakarta’s residents, the problem is likely to continue into the future.

Current measures to combat the flooding are minimal, although various government officials have tried and failed to make a difference, for example by beginning a clean-up of waterways in the city and setting out plans to develop at least a rudimentary sewage system. The city’s most ambitious move has been the construction of the city’s coastal wall (which will likely be submerged itself by 2030). This has been constructed in collaboration with the Dutch government in a project called the National Capital Integrated Coastal Development program. A further idea associated with this project is to put an even larger sea wall off the coast of Indonesia, essentially cutting off Jakarta from the rest of the Java sea. Critics, however, say that without solving the problems that are leading to flooding within the city, building larger and larger barriers to keep out the sea is likely to be ineffective.

Lagos

A large-scale idea to grow the economy in Lagos is to create a new financial centre, on a new ‘island’ called Eko Atlantic.

Lagos (Portuguese for lakes) is one of the most populous cities in Africa. Climate change has contributed to extreme storms, rainfall and rising sea levels, aggravating a flooding problem that has severely affected this country for decades. The people of Lagos are living on what is essentially a series of islands. Much of the city was built on top of swampland, which has since been reclaimed and settled, destroying one of the barriers which would have protected the city from the ever-encroaching ocean. Poor infrastructural planning has meant that most of the ground surface in the city is impenetrable, and water simply has nowhere to go but remain on the surface, taking days to drain away and leaving thousands impacted by flooding year upon year. One example of this is the terrible flooding that the city experienced in 2012.

A large-scale idea to grow the economy in Lagos is to create a new financial centre, on a new ‘island’ called Eko Atlantic. Plans for this island have, to some extent, considered the flooding risk – the centre will be surrounded by a sea wall – but this would likely worsen the flooding situation elsewhere. The effect on the poor, who make up 70% of the city’s population, would be greatest, as the slums of the city sit in the city’s lagoon regions where floodwater is most likely to pool and cause the greatest disruption to residents.

The Thames barrier in London, Stevebidmead on pixabay.

When constructed, it was thought that this barrier might be closed every 2 – 3 years. The current rate of closure is currently double this, at 6 – 7 closures a year, and this is only likely to increase.

London

During the last ice age, the North of the UK was weighed down under the weight of the ice that was amassed there. After this ice melted, isostatic rebound has resulted in the uplift of Scotland by ~ 1 mm, accompanied by the sinking of the south, including the UK capital city of London.

The Thames Barrier was constructed in response to the flood risk in London and was made operational in 1982. The structure is designed to protect the city against 1 in 100-year flooding events. When storm surges combine with high tide, waters can rise by up to 2 m, making this one of the regular causes of flooding in the city. When constructed, it was thought that this barrier might be closed every 2 – 3 years. The current rate of closure is currently double this, at 6 – 7 closures a year, and this is only likely to increase. With the impact of climate change, sea levels could have risen up to 115 cm by 2100, if emissions continue at the current rate.

There is hope that this prediction will not be the case, however. The UK has committed to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and is the first country to do so. This demonstrates the ambition to combat climate change and minimise warming, but many argue that a 2050 target is not ambitious enough to prevent most of the adverse impacts that we are already beginning to see materialising around the world today.

Cities are going to have to adapt to increased flood risk if they are to survive in a world that has warmed by 1.5 degrees Celsius or greater, and these examples are just a few of those that are at risk. In achieving UN Sustainability Goals 11 (sustainable cities and communities) and 9 (Industry, innovation and Infrastructure), flood adaptation measures will be more essential than ever before.

**This article expresses the personal opinions of the author (Heather Britton). These opinions may not reflect an official policy position of Geology for Global Development. **

Are we ready for water stress? The potential locations for undiscovered water sources. Investment in earthquake resilience in Tokyo and China. That and more in Jesse Zondervan’s June 2019 #GfGDpicks #SciComm

Are we ready for water stress? The potential locations for undiscovered water sources. Investment in earthquake resilience in Tokyo and China. That and more in Jesse Zondervan’s June 2019 #GfGDpicks #SciComm

Each month, Jesse Zondervan picks his favourite posts from geoscience and development blogs/news which cover the geology for global development interest. Here’s a round-up of Jesse’s selections for the last month:

As temperatures in Europe surge, one may not find it difficult to imagine water will be in demand. However, nearly one-fifth of the world’s population lives in a stressed water basin. A study published in Nature Sustainability points towards the inflexibility of our water demands. To ensure resilience to climate-change driven droughts, we better start looking for opportunities to save or build elsewhere or look for other sources.

On a positive note, this month such a new source was found off the coast of the US Northeast. Mapping of the ocean floor with electromagnetic waves revealed aquifer of fresh water underneath the salty ocean, starting at 180 m beneath the seafloor, extending 50 miles to the edge of the continental shelf. Similar deep offshore aquifers might be waiting to be found elsewhere in the world.

Tokyo and Sichuan – Earthquake resilience in Asia

This week The Guardian explores Tokyo, naming it the world’s riskiest city and one of its most resilient. The scale of the city, its risks and its efforts to build resilience are evident in the way Tokyo deals with the prediction of day X. Experts estimate a 70% chance of a magnitude 7 hitting Tokyo before 2050. With the added pressure of the 2020 Olympics Tokyo is preparing evacuation plans, and decided to cut the number of spectators for the sailing event to be better able to deal with the tsunami risk.

Over in China, a magnitude 6 earthquake struck Sichuan this month. Professor Wei Shengji considers whether human activities might have increased seismic activity, a topic also discussed in South Korea’s Pohang where there seems to be no doubt a geothermal energy project is to blame. The impact of disaster risk reduction efforts is unmistakable in the case of Sichuan, where forward thinking and the installment of an earthquake early warning system saved hundreds.

More this month, how citizen scientists can help predict and prepare for disasters,  how airlines decide whether to fly near volcanoes and the challenge of dealing with the risk of tailings dam failures in the mining industry

 

Sustainability

Combination of water scarcity and inflexible demand puts world’s river basins at risk at UCI news

Scientists Map Huge Undersea Fresh-Water Aquifer Off U.S. Northeast by Kevin Krajick at State of the Planet

Tokyo

‘This is not a “what if” story’: Tokyo braces for the earthquake of a century by Daniel Hurst at The Guardian

Tokyo 2020 organisers cut crowds at sailing events over tsunami risk by Justin McCurry at The Guardian

Sichuan

Earthquake Early Warning System Saves Hundreds in Sichuan by Kristen Wang at The Nanjinger

Commentary: Is Sichuan more prone to earthquakes? By Wei Shengji at Cnannel News Asia

Climate Change Adaptation

Mountain-Dwellers Adapt to Melting Glaciers Without Necessarily Caring About Climate Change by Sarah Fecht at State of the Planet

Stanford-led study investigates how much climate change affects the risk of armed conflict by Devon Ryan at Stanford News

How Climate Change Impacts the Economy by Renee Cho at State of the Planet

Past climate change: A warning for the future? At ScienceDaily

Disaster Risk

How Qantas and other airlines decide whether to fly near volcanoes by Heather Handley and Christina Magill at The Conversation

Boston Built a New Waterfront Just in Time for the Apocalypse by Prashant Gopal and Brian K Sullivan

Risk and the mining industry after the Brumadinho tailings dam failure by Cate Lamb at global environmental disclosure charity CDP

Five ways in which disasters worsen air pollution at UN Environment

Citizen Scientists Can Help Predict and Prepare for Disasters by Jackie Ratner at State of the Planet

Future tsunamis possible in the Red Sea’s Gulf of Elat-Aqaba at ScienceDaily

Lessons from Pohang: Solving geothermal energy’s earthquake problem at ScienceDaily

External Opportunities

The APRU Multi-Hazards Program in collaboration with the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) is calling for research papers and case studies of “Non-Events” to share global success and investment in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)

 

Check back next month for more picks!

Follow Jesse Zondervan @JesseZondervan. Follow us @Geo_Dev & Facebook.

When are Californian earthquakes coming back with vengeance? How does climate-change-induced flooding increase inequality? Lessons from Cyclone Idai; that and more in Jesse Zondervan’s April 2019 #GfGDpicks #SciComm

Aftermath damage of the San Francisco earthquake of 1906

Each month, Jesse Zondervan picks his favourite posts from geoscience and development blogs/news which cover the geology for global development interest. Here’s a round-up of Jesse’s selections for the last month:

California seems to be overdue for earthquakes, meaning there has been a so-called earthquake ‘drought’ in the last century. Paleoseismic studies show that this hiatus is unprecedented in the last ten centuries. This means we might see a high frequency of earthquakes coming this century, while a generation who hasn’t experienced any major earthquake has passed.

Furthermore, a related article in the San Francisco Chronicle reports the US Geological Survey projects a major quake along the San Andreas Fault would cause more than 98 billion in building damage and kill up to 7,800 people. The main threat, however, is the aftermath with loss of power for at least three days and half of households without water for at least a month. The study highlights the importance of preparing the population for a quake and its aftermath.

Fortunately, this month also saw the publication of a Californian record of two million tiny earthquakes detected by Caltech scientists. This tenfold increase in the earthquake catalogue tells them more about how faults and earthquakes work and get triggered. Greg Beroza, a Stanford University seismologist says “It’s just like if a new telescope comes along and its magnification is 10 times greater”.

Can climate-change induced flooding increase inequality?

The answer seems to be yes, in fact it does. A report published by the Urban Institute in the US showed that people with poor credit scores suffered bigger drops in scores than those starting with high scores. While home-owners receive insurance pay-outs, costs to renters only increase due to increased demand after major storms.

Similarly the New York City Panel on Climate Change reports climate change is affecting everyday life in New York today, and will hit the poorest neighbourhoods in the future.

Consequently, social vulnerability should be considered when risk is modelled and funding allocated, according to RMS flood specialist Nicole Howe.

 

More perspectives this month on the aftermath and lessons from Cyclone Idai which struck southern Africa in March; the challenge of religious resignation to building resilience against natural hazards in Indonesia and what the new bill on the US National Volcano Warning System means to disaster risk reduction.

Go ahead and look through this month’s picks!

Aftermath and Response to Cyclone Idai

Cyclone Idai shows why long-term disaster resilience is so crucial by Channing Arndt and Claudia Ringler at The Conversation

Cyclone Idai is over – but its health effects will be felt for a long time by Kerrigan McCarthy and Lucille Blumberg at The Conversation

Responding To Cyclone Idai requires a more robust approach by Peter Kamalingin at Oxfam International

Earthquake risk in California

Reassessing California’s Overdue Earthquake Tab by Mary Caperton Morton at Eos Earth & Space Science News

What a major earthquake would do to San Francisco by Kimberley Veklerov at the San Francisco Chronicle

Scientists Uncover California’s Hidden Earthquakes by Shannon Hall at Scientific American

Flooding and inequality

How natural disasters can increase inequality by Gretchen Frazee at PBS

States are turning to data and interactive maps to help residents confront and manage flood risks by Shannon Cunniff at the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF)

Disaster Risk Reduction: Avoiding the Inevitable by Nicola Howe at RMS

New York’s Poor and Ethnic Minority Neighbourhoods to be hit hardest by Climate Change finds NYC Panel on Climate Change by Will Bugler at Acclimatise

Climate Adaptation

7 American cities that could disappear by 2100 by Aria Bendix at Business Insider

Improving Water Resources Management with Satellite Data by Aaron Sidder at EOS Earth and Space Science News

Central America: Climate, Drought, Migration and the Border by Lieutenant Commander Oliver-Leighton Barrett at The Center for Climate & Security

Disaster Risk Reduction

Living with natural disasters – how to change Indonesia’s culture of passive resignation by Juliana Wijaya at The Conversation

Major geological survey hopes to make Indonesia more resistant to deadly tsunamis by Tim Pilgrim at Brunel University London

Hurricane Harvey provides lessons learned for flood resiliency plans at ScienceDaily

US National Volcano Warning System Gains Steam by Forrest Lewis at Eos Earth & Space Science News

External Opportunities

Register for Science and Policy Forum of 2019 Global Platform for DRR at Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR)

The Art of Resilience – Call for art helping build society’s resilience to natural hazards at GFDRR

Register to attend or watch online – Disasters: impact on child poverty and development at the Overseas Development Institute

Teaching Assistantship Applications Open for Sustainable Development Undergraduate Courses at the Earth Institute, Columbia University

Summer 2019 Teaching Assistantship Available in Environmental Science and Policy Program at the Earth Institute, Columbia University

 

Check back next month for more picks!

Follow Jesse Zondervan @JesseZondervan. Follow us @Geo_Dev & Facebook.

Water and Sustainable Development – 6th GfGD Annual Conference Event Report

Water and Sustainable Development – 6th GfGD Annual Conference Event Report

Understanding, managing and protecting water resources is critical to the delivery of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (e.g., education, water and sanitation, healthy oceans, zero hunger, good health, gender equality, energy, industry, and biodiversity). Increasing urbanisation, industrialisation, and climate change, however, are increasing pressure on water supplies and reducing water quality. Our 6th Annual Conference explored the role of geoscientists in managing conflicting demands for water, ensuring that the needs of the poorest are met while enhancing the health of ecosystems. We recently published a full event report online, and here we share some of the highlights.

Our Annual Conference is a highlight for many involved in the work of Geology for Global Development, bringing together people from across the UK and beyond to explore how geoscientists can contribute to sustainable development. This year approximately 120 attendees gathered at the Geological Society of London to talk about all things water, Sustainable Development Goals and geoscience.

The conference was opened by Lord Duncan of Springbank (UK Government Minister for Scotland and Northern Ireland, and a fellow geoscientist). Lord Duncan gave a passionate description of the important links between politics, geology and sustainable development. Another distinguished guest was Benedicto Hosea, visiting the UK from Tanzania and working closely with the Tanzania Development Trust. Benedicto gave us an insight into water resources in Tanzania, and the realities of implementing projects and taking practical action to improve water provision.

Our keynote lecture was delivered by Professor Bob Kalin from the University of Strathclyde, who gave us an overview of the interactions between water, geoscience and human impacts – and why it is important that geoscientists engage in the delivery of the Sustainable Development Goals. You can find a recording of a similar talk Professor Kalin presented at a TedX event.

The first panel discussion of the day focused on management, with insight from industry, academia and the Overseas Development Institute. We discussed the challenges involved in listening to and considering many stakeholders, the management of transnational aquifers and how best to enforce policy – then attempted to come with some solutions to these challenges. Our event report includes links to key reading suggested by our panellists.

Water contamination is a significant environmental issue in many countries at all stages of development.  We heard about research into salinization and arsenic contamination of groundwater in Bangladesh. Mike Webster, head of WasteAid (check them out here) gave a different perspective on water contamination, talking about the work the charity has done in improving solid waste collection, thereby improving drainage and water quality.

Probably the most hectic, yet fun part of the conference was the UN style activity – we split up into groups representing different stakeholders and came up with a research and innovation statement relating to water and the SDGs.

We were also joined by The Eleanor Foundation, a charity working in Tanzania to provide access to safe, clean water provision to communities through pump installation and education programmes. It was so inspiring to hear about a charity that has undertaken effective work in ensuring the sustainable supply of water to communities, and made a real difference in improving lives – it is estimated that the Eleanor Foundation has improved access to water to over 250,000 people. In 2019, GfGD will be supporting the work of The Eleanor Foundation, helping to deliver SDG 6 in Tanzania. We will be using surplus income from our conference, together with other funds, to facilitate an evaluation of The Eleanor Foundation’s water programme. This will generate recommendations for The Eleanor Foundation team to ensure long-term impact and sustainability.

In true GSL conference style, we finished the conference with a reception in the library, giving us all the chance to chat about the conference and meet people sharing an interest in geoscience and development (of course admiring William Smith’s geological map!). I think it would be fair to say that a fun and interesting day was had by all, and I left feeling excited by the number of geoscientists I met that all share enthusiasm for the role that geoscientists have in helping to achieve the SDGs.

The 7th GfGD Annual Conference will be on Friday 15th November 2019, hosted again by the Geological Society of London. Please do save the date, and we hope to see you there!

Laura Hunt is a member of the GfGD Executive Team, and a PhD Student at the University of Nottingham and the British Geological Survey.