Geology for Global Development

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How successful disaster risk reduction looks like. Modelling economics with climate science. How do rocks end up in your food? That and more in Jesse Zondervan’s September 2019 #GfGDpicks #SciComm

How successful disaster risk reduction looks like. Modelling economics with climate science. How do rocks end up in your food? That and more in Jesse Zondervan’s September 2019 #GfGDpicks #SciComm

Each month, Jesse Zondervan picks his favourite posts from geoscience and development blogs/news which cover the geology for global development interest. Here’s a round-up of Jesse’s selections for the last month:

Minimising disaster risk has two dimensions, understanding the hazard and targeting people’s behaviour. Therefore to prevent volcanoes killing people, researchers have studied why people return to dangerous volcanoes during evacuation periods, and have developed an approach to leverage the forecasting techniques used in weather forecasting, to predict volcanic behaviour.

Disasters are most harmful to those with fewer resources. Fortunately, great process is being made in the East Africa region, where the water resource sector, road sector, and various stakeholders communicate with meteorologists to provide impact-based forecasting. Thus, a forecast might read:

“50mm of rainfall falling in Western Kenya on Thursday will lead to some flooding of homes in Kisumu, and will disrupt transport and agriculture. Vulnerable people close to river valleys may want to consider moving to higher ground temporarily”

Read more about countries most vulnerable to hazards: Least Developed Countries (LDCs), Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), and which challenges they face.

Integrating climate science into finance

Climate change continues to be in the news, and the economic sector is waking up to the cost of consequences. However, economists are still downplaying major risks according to a new report by Columbia University’s Earth Institute, Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and the UK’s Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.

The simplified and business-as-usual economic assessments don’t take into account the severity of impacts when thresholds in Earth systems are exceeded, resulting in a potential for mass migration and conflict.

Bad news too for pensions and government funds, many of which invest in index funds, which face unmanageable risk from climate change, according to the director of Stanford University’s Sustainable Finance Initiative. They have a need for more science-based climate policy.

That’s why companies such as Four Twenty Seven’s combined economic modelling with climate science. Their analysis shows some of Europe’s main office areas are at risk to flooding and heat extremes, leading up to a potential of over €1 trillion in damage.

More on how climate experts judge geoengineering, how the geological resource of phosphate cycles through our food system (yes we eat rocks), and how more rainwater can lead to less water available to people along the Nile.

As ever, there is more to explore, check below for more news and ideas.

Climate Change Adaptation

You Asked: How Can Students Make a Difference on Climate Change? At the Earth Institute

Planting the seeds of science diplomacy by Cristina Serra at The World Academy of Sciences

Real Estate Climate Risks: How Will Europe be Impacted? By Léonie Chatain at FourTwentySeven

Economists Are Downplaying Many Major Climate Risks, Says Report at the Earth Institute

Climate Change and Migration in Vulnerable Countries by Mariam Traore Chazalnoël at the UN Sustainable Development Blog

Big Data, Rising Tides: How Advances in Free Remote Sensing Technology Can Help Cities to Prepare for Climate Change by Ran Goldblatt and Nicholas Jones at GIM International

Fund Managers Failed To Anticipate Climate Risk That Led To PG&E Bankruptcy by Jeff McMahon at Forbes

Benefits of Adaptation Measures Outweigh the Costs, Report Says by Maya Earls at E&E News

Sustainability

Not all meat is created equal: How diet changes can sustain world’s food production at the Stevens Institute of Technology

Large transnational corporations play critical role in global natural resource management at Oregon State University

More rain yet less water expected for up to 250 million people along the Nile at Dartmouth College

Geoengineering

How do climate experts think about geoengineering? They get personal. by Sarah DeWeerdt at Anthropocene magazine

Disaster Risk

Volcanoes kill more people long after they first erupt – those deaths are avoidable at The Conversation

New volcanic eruption forecasting technique at the University of Illinois

Impact Based Forecasting is set to save lives and livelihoods in East Africa by George Achia at the Climate & Development Knowledge Network

External Opportunities

The Climate & Development Knowledge Network at the African Climate Risks Conference in Addis Ababa

First-of-its-kind Curriculum Will Focus on Climate Risk and Investment Research at the Earth Institute, Columbia University

Earth Institute Postdoctoral Research Program Now Accepting Applications for 2020

 

Check back next month for more picks!

Follow Jesse Zondervan @JesseZondervan. Follow us @Geo_Dev & Facebook.

Why California is least prepared for earthquakes. Increasing pressure on geoengineering. Tackling the challenge of groundwater. Jesse Zondervan’s July 2019 #GfGDpicks #SciComm

Why California is least prepared for earthquakes. Increasing pressure on geoengineering. Tackling the challenge of groundwater. Jesse Zondervan’s July 2019 #GfGDpicks #SciComm

Each month, Jesse Zondervan picks his favourite posts from geoscience and development blogs/news which cover the geology for global development interest. Here’s a round-up of Jesse’s selections for the last month:

Earthquake preparedness in the US

Last month has seen two strong earthquakes in California, and in an interview with CNN seismologist Dr Lucy Jones says California is not as well prepared as it could be, especially compared to places like Japan and Chile. Political scientist Matt Motta attributes this to a low electoral incentive for policymakers to work on preventative policies rather than response to earthquake damage, which leads to the conclusion that communicating earthquake risk to people living in hazardous areas is vital to improving preparedness.

To geoengineer or not?

There has also been some debate on geoengineering, with climate scientists at Harvard and MIT arguing that risks of geoengineering may be overstated, whilst Cambridge scholars warn against the social blinding effect of ‘emissions debt’ through the temporary use of solar geoengineering.

At the same time, there is an increasing pressure from insurance companies for cities to adapt to climate change-related risks, and the threat of Antarctic ice collapse raising sea levels dramatically led to the suggestion of artificially snowing ocean water on it in great quantities.

Ultimately, we need research to understand the risks and efficacy of solar engineering, which is why the newly published map for predicting paths of particles emitted in the atmosphere is a welcome addition.

The challenge of groundwater

The challenge to relying on deeper water aquifers to sustain supply is that deeper strata are generally less conducive to extraction, water gets saltier at depth, and finally, it costs more. A new study finds that Americans are drilling deeper, raising concern over the sustainability of water extraction.

A new method of testing groundwater resources using the tidal effects of gravitation on groundwater addresses the challenge of investigating and managing water resources more sustainably.

More this month, the unwavering resistance of Guatemalans in one of the world’s most hazardous areas, the unnoticed climate crisis disasters happening weekly, and the question of sovereignty as Pacific countries drown.

Groundwater

Simple, accurate and inexpensive: A new method for exploring groundwater at the Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)

Americans are drilling deeper than ever for freshwater at University of California – Santa Barbara

Climate Change Adaptation

Insurance Companies Push Cities To Take Climate Action by Sarah Lawrynuik at The Sprawl

What happens when a country drowns? By Sarah Munoz at The Conversation

Climate Risk Disclosure Act Is Good for Your Investments by Nicole Pinko at the Union of Concerned Scientists

Arctic ice loss is worrying, but the giant stirring in the South could be even worse at The Conversation

Geoengineering

Betting on speculative geoengineering may risk an escalating ‘climate debt crisis’ by Shinichiro Asayama and Mike Hulme

Risks of Controversial Geoengineering Approach “May Be Overstated” By John Fialka at E&E News

Chaos theory produces map for predicting paths of particles emitted into the atmosphere at ScienceDaily

Sea level rise: West Antarctic ice collapse may be prevented by snowing ocean water onto it at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Earthquake preparedness in the US

She’s been explaining earthquakes for decades. Here’s where she says California is least prepared by Braden Goyette at CNN

Americans focus on responding to earthquake damage, not preventing it, because they’re unaware of their risk by Matt Motta at The Conversation

Hospitals implement quake-ready technology, teams in seismically active areas by Jacqueline Renfrow at FierceHealthcare

Disaster Risk

‘Artificial intelligence’ fit to monitor volcanoes at GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences

Istanbul: Seafloor study proves earthquake risk for the first time at the Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR)

History, disasters, and resilience: The story of Antigua Guatemala by Barbara Minguez Garcia and Rodrigo Donoso Arias at World Bank Blogs

One climate crisis disaster happening every week, UN warns by Fiona Harvey at The Guardian

External Opportunities

Law and Sustainability Summer School at the Earth System Governance Project

Opportunity: Senior Research Associate in Policy, Politics and Climate Change at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

 

Check back next month for more picks!

Follow Jesse Zondervan @JesseZondervan. Follow us @Geo_Dev & Facebook.

Flooding in some of the world’s most at-risk cities

Flooding in some of the world’s most at-risk cities

What are cities doing to mitigate rising sea-levels? What are the numbers behind the related challenges? In our August ‘Coast’ month, Heather Britton focuses on sea-level rise in the coastal cities of Jakarta, Lagos and London, where barriers and new islands are likely proposed solutions, even if they seem inadequate. [Editor’s note: This post reflects Heather’s personal opinions. These opinions may not reflect official policy positions of Geology for Global Development.]

It is safe to say that the impacts of climate change will be felt in some parts of the world more than others, and that in many regions these impacts are already making themselves apparent. One of the inevitable consequences of global warming is rising sea levels, caused by the dual effects of melting ice caps and the expansion of water volume in the oceans with increased temperatures, amongst other factors. In this week’s blog, I intend to focus on three cities which are under threat from flooding due to sea-level change, and look at how they are coping with the problem of sinking into the sea.

Jakarta

Jakarta is the world’s fastest sinking city, sinking on average 15 cm every year.

Jakarta is the world’s fastest sinking city, sinking on average 15 cm every year. Situated next to the Java sea, and home to 30 million people, there is a very real danger that this city will soon be completely submerged. The source of the problem is not, however, purely sea-level rise, but also to the fact that the city itself is sinking. This is not a purely geological issue and relates to a lack of sources of clean drinking water in the capital. The surface drinking water sources are too polluted to be considered safe places to drink, and a significant number of people are forced to dig their own illegal wells in order to access the cleaner, groundwater reservoirs. Draining the aquifers on which the city rests is causing the gradual subsidence of the region, but until clean drinking water is available to even the poorest of Jakarta’s residents, the problem is likely to continue into the future.

Current measures to combat the flooding are minimal, although various government officials have tried and failed to make a difference, for example by beginning a clean-up of waterways in the city and setting out plans to develop at least a rudimentary sewage system. The city’s most ambitious move has been the construction of the city’s coastal wall (which will likely be submerged itself by 2030). This has been constructed in collaboration with the Dutch government in a project called the National Capital Integrated Coastal Development program. A further idea associated with this project is to put an even larger sea wall off the coast of Indonesia, essentially cutting off Jakarta from the rest of the Java sea. Critics, however, say that without solving the problems that are leading to flooding within the city, building larger and larger barriers to keep out the sea is likely to be ineffective.

Lagos

A large-scale idea to grow the economy in Lagos is to create a new financial centre, on a new ‘island’ called Eko Atlantic.

Lagos (Portuguese for lakes) is one of the most populous cities in Africa. Climate change has contributed to extreme storms, rainfall and rising sea levels, aggravating a flooding problem that has severely affected this country for decades. The people of Lagos are living on what is essentially a series of islands. Much of the city was built on top of swampland, which has since been reclaimed and settled, destroying one of the barriers which would have protected the city from the ever-encroaching ocean. Poor infrastructural planning has meant that most of the ground surface in the city is impenetrable, and water simply has nowhere to go but remain on the surface, taking days to drain away and leaving thousands impacted by flooding year upon year. One example of this is the terrible flooding that the city experienced in 2012.

A large-scale idea to grow the economy in Lagos is to create a new financial centre, on a new ‘island’ called Eko Atlantic. Plans for this island have, to some extent, considered the flooding risk – the centre will be surrounded by a sea wall – but this would likely worsen the flooding situation elsewhere. The effect on the poor, who make up 70% of the city’s population, would be greatest, as the slums of the city sit in the city’s lagoon regions where floodwater is most likely to pool and cause the greatest disruption to residents.

The Thames barrier in London, Stevebidmead on pixabay.

When constructed, it was thought that this barrier might be closed every 2 – 3 years. The current rate of closure is currently double this, at 6 – 7 closures a year, and this is only likely to increase.

London

During the last ice age, the North of the UK was weighed down under the weight of the ice that was amassed there. After this ice melted, isostatic rebound has resulted in the uplift of Scotland by ~ 1 mm, accompanied by the sinking of the south, including the UK capital city of London.

The Thames Barrier was constructed in response to the flood risk in London and was made operational in 1982. The structure is designed to protect the city against 1 in 100-year flooding events. When storm surges combine with high tide, waters can rise by up to 2 m, making this one of the regular causes of flooding in the city. When constructed, it was thought that this barrier might be closed every 2 – 3 years. The current rate of closure is currently double this, at 6 – 7 closures a year, and this is only likely to increase. With the impact of climate change, sea levels could have risen up to 115 cm by 2100, if emissions continue at the current rate.

There is hope that this prediction will not be the case, however. The UK has committed to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and is the first country to do so. This demonstrates the ambition to combat climate change and minimise warming, but many argue that a 2050 target is not ambitious enough to prevent most of the adverse impacts that we are already beginning to see materialising around the world today.

Cities are going to have to adapt to increased flood risk if they are to survive in a world that has warmed by 1.5 degrees Celsius or greater, and these examples are just a few of those that are at risk. In achieving UN Sustainability Goals 11 (sustainable cities and communities) and 9 (Industry, innovation and Infrastructure), flood adaptation measures will be more essential than ever before.

**This article expresses the personal opinions of the author (Heather Britton). These opinions may not reflect an official policy position of Geology for Global Development. **

Are we ready for water stress? The potential locations for undiscovered water sources. Investment in earthquake resilience in Tokyo and China. That and more in Jesse Zondervan’s June 2019 #GfGDpicks #SciComm

Are we ready for water stress? The potential locations for undiscovered water sources. Investment in earthquake resilience in Tokyo and China. That and more in Jesse Zondervan’s June 2019 #GfGDpicks #SciComm

Each month, Jesse Zondervan picks his favourite posts from geoscience and development blogs/news which cover the geology for global development interest. Here’s a round-up of Jesse’s selections for the last month:

As temperatures in Europe surge, one may not find it difficult to imagine water will be in demand. However, nearly one-fifth of the world’s population lives in a stressed water basin. A study published in Nature Sustainability points towards the inflexibility of our water demands. To ensure resilience to climate-change driven droughts, we better start looking for opportunities to save or build elsewhere or look for other sources.

On a positive note, this month such a new source was found off the coast of the US Northeast. Mapping of the ocean floor with electromagnetic waves revealed aquifer of fresh water underneath the salty ocean, starting at 180 m beneath the seafloor, extending 50 miles to the edge of the continental shelf. Similar deep offshore aquifers might be waiting to be found elsewhere in the world.

Tokyo and Sichuan – Earthquake resilience in Asia

This week The Guardian explores Tokyo, naming it the world’s riskiest city and one of its most resilient. The scale of the city, its risks and its efforts to build resilience are evident in the way Tokyo deals with the prediction of day X. Experts estimate a 70% chance of a magnitude 7 hitting Tokyo before 2050. With the added pressure of the 2020 Olympics Tokyo is preparing evacuation plans, and decided to cut the number of spectators for the sailing event to be better able to deal with the tsunami risk.

Over in China, a magnitude 6 earthquake struck Sichuan this month. Professor Wei Shengji considers whether human activities might have increased seismic activity, a topic also discussed in South Korea’s Pohang where there seems to be no doubt a geothermal energy project is to blame. The impact of disaster risk reduction efforts is unmistakable in the case of Sichuan, where forward thinking and the installment of an earthquake early warning system saved hundreds.

More this month, how citizen scientists can help predict and prepare for disasters,  how airlines decide whether to fly near volcanoes and the challenge of dealing with the risk of tailings dam failures in the mining industry

 

Sustainability

Combination of water scarcity and inflexible demand puts world’s river basins at risk at UCI news

Scientists Map Huge Undersea Fresh-Water Aquifer Off U.S. Northeast by Kevin Krajick at State of the Planet

Tokyo

‘This is not a “what if” story’: Tokyo braces for the earthquake of a century by Daniel Hurst at The Guardian

Tokyo 2020 organisers cut crowds at sailing events over tsunami risk by Justin McCurry at The Guardian

Sichuan

Earthquake Early Warning System Saves Hundreds in Sichuan by Kristen Wang at The Nanjinger

Commentary: Is Sichuan more prone to earthquakes? By Wei Shengji at Cnannel News Asia

Climate Change Adaptation

Mountain-Dwellers Adapt to Melting Glaciers Without Necessarily Caring About Climate Change by Sarah Fecht at State of the Planet

Stanford-led study investigates how much climate change affects the risk of armed conflict by Devon Ryan at Stanford News

How Climate Change Impacts the Economy by Renee Cho at State of the Planet

Past climate change: A warning for the future? At ScienceDaily

Disaster Risk

How Qantas and other airlines decide whether to fly near volcanoes by Heather Handley and Christina Magill at The Conversation

Boston Built a New Waterfront Just in Time for the Apocalypse by Prashant Gopal and Brian K Sullivan

Risk and the mining industry after the Brumadinho tailings dam failure by Cate Lamb at global environmental disclosure charity CDP

Five ways in which disasters worsen air pollution at UN Environment

Citizen Scientists Can Help Predict and Prepare for Disasters by Jackie Ratner at State of the Planet

Future tsunamis possible in the Red Sea’s Gulf of Elat-Aqaba at ScienceDaily

Lessons from Pohang: Solving geothermal energy’s earthquake problem at ScienceDaily

External Opportunities

The APRU Multi-Hazards Program in collaboration with the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) is calling for research papers and case studies of “Non-Events” to share global success and investment in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)

 

Check back next month for more picks!

Follow Jesse Zondervan @JesseZondervan. Follow us @Geo_Dev & Facebook.