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Geosciences Column

Geosciences Column: Africa’s vulnerability to climate change

Climate change is set to hit the nations of the Global South the hardest.

Ravaged by armed conflicts, a deep struggle with poverty, poor governance and horizontal inequality, some parts of Africa and other Global South regions are arguably the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Largely reliant on natural resources for sustenance, current and future changes in temperatures, precipitation and the intensity of some natural hazards threaten the food security, public health and agricultural output of low-income nations.

Climate change increases heat waves across Africa

Among other impacts, climate change boosts the likelihood of periods of prolonged and/or abnormally hot weather (heat waves). A new study, by researchers in Italy, reveals that in the future all African capital cities are expected to face more exceptionally hot days than the rest of the world.

The new research, published in the EGU open access journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, has found that extreme heat waves affected only about 37% of the African continent between 1981 to 2005 while in the last decade, the land area affected grew to about 60%. The frequency of heat waves also increased, from an average of 12.3 per year from 1981 to 2005 to 24.5 per year from 2006 to 2015.

By merging information about the duration and the intensity of the recorded heat waves, the authors of the study were able to quantify the heat waves using a single numerical index which they called the Heat Wave Magnitude daily (HWMId). The new measure allowed the team to compare heatwaves from different locations and times.

Geographically plotting the HWMId values for daily maximum temperatures over five-year periods from 1981 to 2015, clearly showed there has been an increase, not only in the number of heat waves and their distribution across the continent, but also an escalation in their intensity (see the figure below). The trend is particularly noticeable since 1996 and peaks between 2011 and 2015.

Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily of maximum temperature (HWMIdtx) for 5-year periods of Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) gauge network records from 1981 to 2015. The bottom-right panes show the spatial distribution of the GSOD station employed in this study. From G. Ceccherini et al. 2016 (click to enlarge).

The figure also highlights that densely populated areas, particularly Northern and Southern Africa, as well as Madagascar, are most at risk.

The rise in occurrences of extreme temperature events will put pressure on already stretched local infrastructure. With the elderly and children most at risk from heat waves, the health care needs of the local population will increase, as will the demand for electricity for cooling. Therefore, further studies of this nature are required, to quantify the implications of African heat waves on health, crops and local economies and assist government officials in making informed decisions about climate change adaptation policies.

Lessons learned from climate adaptation strategies

In the face of weather extremes across Africa including heat waves, droughts and floods, it is just as important to carefully assess the suitability of climate change adaptation policies, argues another recently published study in the EGU open access journal Earth System Dynamics.

Take Malawi, for instance, a severely poor nation: over 74% of the population live on less than a dollar ($) a day and 90% depend on rain-fed subsistence farming to survive. According to Malawi government figures, one-third of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) comes from agriculture, forestry and fishing.  As a result, the country – and its population – is vulnerable to weather extremes, such as variability in the rainy season, prolonged dry spells and rise in the number of abnormally hot days.

A 2006 Action Aid report states that “increased droughts and floods may be exacerbating poverty levels, leaving many rural farmers trapped in a cycle of poverty and vulnerability. The situation in Malawi illustrates the drastic increases in hunger and food insecurity being caused by global warming worldwide.”

The Lake Chilwa Basin Climate Adaptation Programme (LCBCCAP) aims to enhance the resilience of rural communities surrounding Lake Chilwa to the impacts of droughts, floods and temperature extremes. The lake is a closed drainage lake (meaning it relies on rainfall to be replenished) in the south eastern corner of Malawi.

Perceptions of how climate change affects residents of the Lake Chilwa Basin. From H. Jørstad and C. Webersik, 2016 (click to enlarge).

The authors of the Earth System Dynamics study interviewed a group of 18 women (part of the LCBCCAP programme), back in early 2012, to understand how they perceived they were affected by climate change and whether the adaptation tools provided by the programme would meet their long-term needs.

The women agreed unanimously: climate in the Lake Chilwa Basin was changing. They reported that rainy seasons had become shorter and more unreliable, leading to droughts and dry spells. One of the women mentioned raising temperatures and fewer trees, due to overexploitation.

All those interviewed were part of the women fish-processing group, an initiative which sought to provide an alternative income for the women as traditional agricultural activities became unreliable due to erratic rainfall and prolonged dry seasons.

While the women’s new occupation did provide economic relief, the study authors highlight that the group’s new source of income was just as dependant on natural resources as agriculture.

Throughout the interviews, the women of the fish-processing group expressed concerns that the they thought Lake Chilwa might dry up completely by 2013.

“Yes, the lake will dry up and I will not have a business,” says Tadala, one of the women interviewed in the study. While another local woman said “Yes, lower water levels in the lake is threatening my business.”

Lake Chilwa has a long history of drying up: in the last century it has dried up nine times.  If the lake dried up completely, the women of the fish-processing group would be out of business for 2 to 4 years. Even small drops in the water level affect the abundance of fish stocks.

Lake Chilwa has a history of drying up. These Landsat images show the net reduction of lake area between October 1990 and November 2013. show changes to the extensive wetlands (bright green) that surround Lake Chilwa. These wetlands are internationally recognized as an important seasonal hosting location for migratory birds from the Northern Hemisphere. Credit: USGS

The interviews were carried out in early 2012. The previous two years had seen very limited rainfall. Not enough to sustain the lake, but the situation, at the time of the interviews wasn’t critical. However, throughout the summer of 2012 the lake water levels started falling rapidly prompting the relocation of large groups of lakeshore residents. Those dependant on fishing to support their families were most affected.

The women fish-processing group is a good demonstration of how local communities can adopt low-cost measures to adjust to climate change. At the same time, it highlights the need to assess climate adaptation strategies to take into consideration whether they too are dependent on climate-sensitive natural resources. The new research argues that diversifying people’s livelihoods might provide better long-term coping mechanisms.

By Laura Roberts Artal, EGU Communications Officer

References and resources

Ceccherini, G., Russo, S., Ameztoy, I., Marchese, A. F., and Carmona-Moreno, C.: Heat waves in Africa 1981–2015, observations and reanalysis, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 115-125, doi:10.5194/nhess-17-115-2017, 2017

Jørstad, H. and Webersik, C.: Vulnerability to climate change and adaptation strategies of local communities in Malawi: experiences of women fish-processing groups in the Lake Chilwa Basin, Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 977-989, doi:10.5194/esd-7-977-2016, 2016.

ActionAid: Climate change and smallholder farmers in Malawi: Understanding poor people’s experience in climate change adaptation, ActionAid International, 2006.

NASA: The consequences of climate change

United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): Understanding the Link Between Climate Change and Extreme Weather

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): Heat wave, a major summer killer

Geosciences Column: Do coastlines have memories?

do coastlines have memories

Did you know that the shape of coastlines is determined by the angle at which waves crash against the shoreline. It has long been thought that fluctuations in the wave incidence angle are rapidly felt by coastlines, which change the shapes of their shores quickly in response to shifting wave patterns.

Or do they?

Researchers at the British Geological Survey, Duke University (USA) and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts, have performed experiments which show that spits and capes hold ‘a memory’ of their former shapes and past wave climates, influencing their present geomorphology. The findings have recently been published in the EGU’s open access journal Earth Surface Dynamics.

Gradients in sediment distribution within wave-driven currents and shoreface depth play an important role in shaping coastlines. But the angle between an offshore wave crest and the shoreline is chief among the parameters which shape coasts worldwide.

Low-angle waves – those with approach the coast at an angle of 45° or less – have a smoothing effect on the coastline and keep its shape relatively steady. On the other hand, high-angle waves – those with slam against the shore at an angle of 45° or more – introduce instability and perturbations which shape the coast.

The figure shows the experimental set-up used in the study. It also nicely illustrates how coastlines are shaped by the angle of the incoming wave. The arrows indicatenet flux direction under waves incoming from the left; arrow lengths qualitatively indicate the flux. Sand is not transported through cells which are in shadow for a particular wave. From C. W. Thomas et al., 2016.

Alterations to the patterns of shorelines are caused by enhanced erosion and/or deposition, driven by changes in wave climate. Ultimately, coastline geomorphology evolves depending on the relative degree of high and low-angle waves in the wave climate, as well as the degree of irregularity in the wave angle distribution.

Climate change will alter the wave climate, particularly during storm events, so we can expect shorelines to shift globally. Predicting how coastlines will adapt to changing climatic conditions is hard, but more so if coastlines retain a memory of their past shapes when responding to changing wave regimes.

Flying spits (finger-like landforms which project out towards sea from relatively straight shoreline) and cuspate capes (a triangular shaped accumulation of sand and shingle which grows out towards sea) are particularly susceptible to climate change. They form when high angle waves approach the shore at a slant. Animal communities living within fragile marine and estuarine ecosystems largely depend on the protection they offer. They are also of socio-economic importance as many shelter coastal infrastructures. Understanding how they will be affected by a changing climate is vital to develop well-informed coastal management policies.

To understand how changing wave climates affect the evolution of flying spits and cuspate capes (from now on referred to as spits and capes), the team of researchers devised experiments which ran on a computer simulation.

They generated an initially straight shoreline and set the wave conditions for the next 250 years (which is the length of time it takes in nature) to allow the formation of spits and capes.

To test whether pre-existing coastal morphologies played a role in shaping coastlines under changing wave climates, over a period of 100 years (which is loosely the rate at which climate change is thought to be occurring under anthropogenic influences), the scientists gradually changed the angle at which waves approached the coast.  After the 100 year period the simulation was left to run a further 650 years under the new wave conditions.

The investigation revealed that when subjected to gradual changes in the angle at which waves approach the shoreline, capes take about 100 years to start displaying a new morphology. The tips of the capes are eroded away and so they slowly start to shrink.

Spits adjust to change much more slowly. Even after 750 years the experimental coastlines retain significant undulations, suggesting that sandy spits retain a long-term memory of their former shape.

Snapshots of simulated coastline morphologies evolved under changing wave climate. U is the fraction of waves which are approaching the shoreline at 45 degress or higher. Coastlines evolved for 250 years under initial conditions. (aii, bii)> The U values of the changed wave climate show the coastline morphologies evolved 200 and 500 years after the wave climate is changed at 250 years, and the morphologies evolved over 1000 years under static wave climates with the same U. From C. W. Thomas et al., 2016. See paper for full image caption. Click to enlarge.

The implications of the results are far reaching.

Be it implicitly or explicitly, many studies of coastal geomorphology assume that present coastal shape is exclusively a result of present wave climate. The new study shows that even with steady wave climate conditions at present, coastline shapes could still be responding to a past change in wave climate.

Reconstructions of ancient coastal geographies and paleo-wave climates might also be approached differently from now on. The researchers found that as spits adjust to changing wave climates they can leave behind a complex array of lagoons linked by beach bridges. Though there are a number of process which can lead to the formation of these coastal features, researchers must also consider alterations of coastlines as a response to changing wave climate from now on.

The findings of the study can also be applied to the management of sandy coastlines.

Currently, forecasts of future shoreline erosion and sediment deposition are made based on observations of how coasts have changed in recent decades. The new study highlights these short observation timescales may not be enough to fully appreciate how our beaches and coasts might be reshaped in the future.

This is especially true when it comes to climate change mitigation. Decisions on how to best protect the world’s shores based on their environmental and socio-economic importance will greatly benefit from long-term monitoring of coastal geomorphology.

But more work is needed too. The experiments performed by the team only consider two types of coastline morphology  (spits and capes) and only two types of wave climate. While the experiments provide a time-scale over which spits and capes might be expected to change, other factors not considered in the study (wave height, shoreface depth, etc…) will alter the predicted timescales. The time-scales given by the study should be used only as a guideline and highlight the need for more research in this area.

 

By Laura Roberts Artal, EGU Communications Officer

 

References

Thomas, C. W., Murray, A. B., Ashton, A. D., Hurst, M. D., Barkwith, A. K. A. P., and Ellis, M. A.: Complex coastlines responding to climate change: do shoreline shapes reflect present forcing or “remember” the distant past?, Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 871-884, doi:10.5194/esurf-4-871-2016, 2016.

Geosciences Column: The complex links between shrinking sea ice and cloud cover

Sea ice breaking on the Chukchi Sea, Barrow, July 2014

The global climate system is complex. It is composed of, and governed by, a plethora of interconnect factors. Solar radiation, land surface, ice cover, the atmosphere and living things, as well as wind and ocean currents, play a crucial role in the climate system. These factors are intricately connected; changes to some can have significant effects on others, leading to overall consequences for the global climate.

Since the 1980s, sea ice has been decreasing gradually as a result of global warming. But the impact of retreating sea ice on the global climate system aren’ t yet fully understood. A new study published in the EGU’s open access journal, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, attempts to unravel the complex feedback systems between Arctic sea ice extent and cloud cover in the region.

The researchers, lead by Manabu Abe, of the Institute of Arctic Climate and Environmental Research in Japan, argue that shrinking sea ice extent in the Arctic is the cause for increased cloud cover in the region. This, in turn, further enhances the feedback processes of Arctic warming because it cause sea ice to retreat further.

Sea ice, is the ice that ‘grows’ as water in the poles is exposed to very low temperatures over long periods of time. Although some waters are covered by ice year round, most sea ice forms during the cold winter months and melts in the summer.

Global climate influences the annual growth of sea ice. This year, ocean waters in the Arctic are failing to freeze and sea ice isn’t forming as quickly as it normally would. Alarmingly, October 2016 registered the lowest sea ice extent since records began.

Scientists think that the unusually low amount of sea ice formed in the Arctic this year is the result of extraordinarily hot sea surface and air temperatures, which are essentially stopping the formation of ice on ocean waters.

But sea ice extent also influences global climate. Solar radiation is absorbed and reflected by the Earth’s atmosphere (including clouds) and surface. Ice is more reflective than water and land. So as ice cover across the globe decreases, so does the planet’s ability to reflect solar radiation, causing the Earth’s surface to warm further, which, in turn, causes more melting of ice. This is know as the ice-albedo feedback loop.

The effects of shrinking sea ice are not limited to surface warming. Ocean heat uptake and storage can be affected, as can be the formation of low-level cloud cover over the Arctic. While the surface of clouds reflect solar radiation, they also prevent heat from being lost from the Earth’s surface. That’s why, often, on overcast nights temperatures are higher than on clear nights.

A study back in 2012, proposed that increased cloud cover in the Arctic enhanced the radiation emitted by the atmosphere and clouds – known as longwave radiation (DLR) -, causing higher surface air temperatures in autumn. This would extend the sea ice melting season. But there is little data which measures radiation at the surface, making the claim controversial.

Other studies have used computer simulations of the global climate, to mimic the effects of reduced sea ice conditions on cloud cover. They show that the areas of open ocean created by the reduction in sea ice mean more moisture is transported from the ocean to the atmosphere, resulting in the formation of more clouds. But the simulations are not very good at representing polar clouds and so the results aren’t entirely reliable.

Now, Abe and his coworkers, used a new state-of-the-art climate simulation to try and shed light on the problem. They included data from as far back as 1850 in their study, as well as making it more robust by taking into account other factors, such as changing sea surface temperatures, greenhouse gases, aerosols and land use (from the 1980s to 2005), which might affect the formation of clouds.

Geographical map of the simulated linear trend in the total cloud cover (shaded) and sea ice concentration (contours) in (a) September, (b) October, and (c) November during the period 1976–2005. The units are decade. From M.Abe at al., 2016

Geographical map of the simulated linear trend in the total cloud cover (shaded) and sea ice concentration (contours) in (a) September, (b) October, and (c) November during the period 1976–2005. The units are decade. From M.Abe et al., 2016

The new simulation found that between 1976 and 2005, Arctic sea ice decreased through the summer and autumn months (which is corroborated by satellite observations). Meanwhile, cloud cover increased throughout autumn, winter and spring, reaching its peak in October.

The researchers argue that the link between the two trends is not coincidental. Reduced sea ice extent in the autumn months,coupled with a decrease in atmospheric temperatures, means more heat is exchanged from the oceans to the atmosphere, which fuels the formation of clouds. More clouds mean downwards longwave radiation (DLR) in October is increased by as much as 40 to 60% (compared with clear autumn skies). With less heat being reflected off the surface of the Earth, sea ice extent decreases further due to melting and so a feedback loop (not dissimilar to the ice-albedo loop) is established.

The results reinforce the findings of previous studies, but some questions remain unanswered. The scientists point out that, it is not only important to understand how much cloud cover increases by as a result of shrinking sea ice extent. In a warming climate, how increases in air temperature and humidity affect the vertical structure of clouds will play an important role in the sea ice-cloud feedback loop. The vertical profile of a cloud also strongly influences how and how much DLR is reflected back on the Earth’s surface, so there is a need for a better understanding of the feedback processes related to clouds too.

By Laura Roberts Artal, EGU Communications Officer

References

Abe, M., Nozawa, T., Ogura, T., and Takata, K.: Effect of retreating sea ice on Arctic cloud cover in simulated recent global warming, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14343-14356, doi:10.5194/acp-16-14343-2016, 2016.

Wu, D.L., and Lee, J.N.:Arctic low cloud changes as observed by MISR and CALIOP: Implication for the enhanced autumnal warming and sea ice loss, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D07107, doi:10.1029/2011JD017050, 2012

GeoSciences Column: The ‘dirty weather’ diaries of Reverend Richard Davis

GeoSciences Column: The ‘dirty weather’ diaries of Reverend Richard Davis

Researching the Earth’s climate of the past, helps scientists make better predictions about how the climate and our environment will continue to be affected by, change and adapt to rising temperatures.

One of the most invaluable sources of data, when it comes to understanding the Earth’s past climate, are historical meteorological records.

Accounts of weather and climate conditions for the Southern Hemisphere, prior to the 1850s, are particularly sparse. This makes the recently discovered, painstakingly detailed and richly descriptive weather diaries of a 19th Century missionary in New Zealand, incredibly valuable.

Researchers from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, In Auckland (New Zealand), poured over the contents of the diaries, which provide an eyewitness account to the end of the Little Ice Age (between 1300 and the 1870s winter temperatures – particularly in the Norther Hemisphere- were lower than those experienced throughout the 20th Century). The journals reveal that 19th century New Zealand experienced cooler winter temperatures and more dominant southerly winds when compared to the present day climatic conditions. The researchers present these and other findings in the open access journal of the EGU, Climate of the Past.

Print of a photomechanical portrait of Reverend Richard Davis taken ca. 1860, from the file print collection, Box 16. Ref: PAColl-7344-97, Alexander Turnbull Library, Wellington, New Zealand, sourced from http://natlib.govt.nz/records/23073407 (From A. M. Lorrey et al., 2016).

Print of a photomechanical portrait of Reverend Richard Davis taken ca. 1860, from the file print collection, Box 16. Ref:
PAColl-7344-97, Alexander Turnbull Library, Wellington, New Zealand, sourced from http://natlib.govt.nz/records/23073407 (From A. M. Lorrey et al., 2016).

The diaries were kept by Reverend Richard Davis, born in Dorset (England) in 1790. The Reverend was associated to the Church Mission Society (CMS) of England; an connection which lead him to settle in the blustery Northland Peninsula in the far north of New Zealand, back in 1831.

From 1839 to 1844, and then again from 1848 to 1851, Davis collected over 13,000 meteorological measurements and made detailed notes about the condition of the local environment.

The Reverend’s collection of data is remarkable, not only for its detail, but also because it is the earliest record of land-based meteorological measurements from New Zealand found to date.

He took twice daily temperature measurements – one at 9 a.m. and one at 12 noon – as well as noon pressure measurements. Qualitative observations included information about wind direction and strength, as well as detailed cloud cover descriptions, and notes on the occurrence of hail, frost, rainfall, snowfall, thunderstorms, lightning, sunsets and behavior of wildlife.

The journals also reveal that the Reverend was not keen on particularly gloomy days, when the winds were strong and blustery, cloud cover hung low and was often accompanied by rain.  On 67 separate occasions, Davis’ used the term “dirty weather” to described days like this.

It is important to assess the reliability of the measurements taken by Davis before drawing comparisons between 19th and 20th Century weather patterns for the island of the long white cloud; and especially if the data are to be integrated within past climate and weather reconstructions for New Zealand and the Southern Hemisphere.

To do so, the Auckland based researchers, compared the Reverend’s pressure measurements with observations made by ships travelling through New Zealand waters or stationed on the island (usually completing military operations), during the same time interval. The Reverend’s daily pressure observations are regularly lower (on average by -0:64 ± 0:10 inches of mercury) than those taken on board the ships. The offset is consistent with the change in altitude between the ships anchored in harbour versus the land-based measurements made by Davis; meaning the Reverend’s pressure measurements are robust.

Reverend Richard Davis pressure observation vs. expedition measurements (leader noted in parentheses) from USS Vincennes (Wilkes), the corvettes Astrolabe and Zelee (d’Urville) and the HMS Erebus (Ross). There are 29 pairs of daily observations and so the x axis simply shows the comparisons of Davis’ record to the three ships in a sequence with the specific intervals noted. (From A. M. Lorrey et al., 2016).

Reverend Richard Davis pressure observation vs. expedition measurements (leader noted in parentheses) from USS Vincennes (Wilkes), the corvettes Astrolabe and Zelee (d’Urville) and the HMS Erebus (Ross). There are 29 pairs of daily observations and so the x axis simply shows the comparisons of Davis’ record to the three ships in a sequence with the specific intervals noted. (From A. M. Lorrey et al., 2016).

There is no similar test which would verify the accuracy of Davis’ temperature measurements. However, the researchers argue that the (expected) annual cycles evident in his measurements, as well as the reliability of his other records mean that, at least some, of his readings are faithful to the local conditions. Not only that, Davis’ mean winter temperature anomalies are comparable to the temperatures reconstructed from tree rings and can be used by the researchers to gather information about the local atmospheric circulation at the time.

When compared to modern-day temperature measurements (from the Virtual Climate Station Network, VCSN), the journal data reveals that mid 1800s winters, at the far north of the island, were cooler. At present, atmospheric circulation over Northland means winds from the southwest are common, especially during the winter and spring. During the summer, easterly winds become dominant. There is a higher frequency of records of south and southwesterly winds in Davis’ diaries. Reconstructions of atmospheric flow over New Zealand in the 1800s, made with proxy tree-ring and coral data, also point towards more frequent south and southwesterly winds and cooler temperatures.

Not only that, the timing of monthly and seasonal climate anomalies, recorded both in tree-ring and the Davis diary data suggest that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like conditions existed, in New Zealand, during the 1839-1851 time period. However, more work (and data) is needed in Australasia to corroborate the findings and define the extent of the ENSO conditions at the time.

With more data, better reconstructions of the atmospheric conditions in the southwest Pacific and Southern Hemisphere can be made. Combined with the newly found Davis’ records, these will make an important impact to the understanding of past weather and climate in the region.

By Laura Roberts Artal, EGU Communications Officer

The Waimate North mission house in the Far North of New Zealand where Davis lived (From: A. M. Lorrey et al., 2016).

The Waimate North mission house in the Far North of New Zealand where Davis lived (From: A. M. Lorrey et al., 2016).

References

Lorrey, A. M. and Chappell, P. R.: The “dirty weather” diaries of Reverend Richard Davis: insights about early colonial-era meteorology and climate variability for northern New Zealand, 1839–1851, Clim. Past, 12, 553-573, doi:10.5194/cp-12-553-2016, 2016.

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