GeoLog

Natural Hazards

Geosciences Column: Africa’s vulnerability to climate change

Climate change is set to hit the nations of the Global South the hardest.

Ravaged by armed conflicts, a deep struggle with poverty, poor governance and horizontal inequality, some parts of Africa and other Global South regions are arguably the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Largely reliant on natural resources for sustenance, current and future changes in temperatures, precipitation and the intensity of some natural hazards threaten the food security, public health and agricultural output of low-income nations.

Climate change increases heat waves across Africa

Among other impacts, climate change boosts the likelihood of periods of prolonged and/or abnormally hot weather (heat waves). A new study, by researchers in Italy, reveals that in the future all African capital cities are expected to face more exceptionally hot days than the rest of the world.

The new research, published in the EGU open access journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, has found that extreme heat waves affected only about 37% of the African continent between 1981 to 2005 while in the last decade, the land area affected grew to about 60%. The frequency of heat waves also increased, from an average of 12.3 per year from 1981 to 2005 to 24.5 per year from 2006 to 2015.

By merging information about the duration and the intensity of the recorded heat waves, the authors of the study were able to quantify the heat waves using a single numerical index which they called the Heat Wave Magnitude daily (HWMId). The new measure allowed the team to compare heatwaves from different locations and times.

Geographically plotting the HWMId values for daily maximum temperatures over five-year periods from 1981 to 2015, clearly showed there has been an increase, not only in the number of heat waves and their distribution across the continent, but also an escalation in their intensity (see the figure below). The trend is particularly noticeable since 1996 and peaks between 2011 and 2015.

Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily of maximum temperature (HWMIdtx) for 5-year periods of Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) gauge network records from 1981 to 2015. The bottom-right panes show the spatial distribution of the GSOD station employed in this study. From G. Ceccherini et al. 2016 (click to enlarge).

The figure also highlights that densely populated areas, particularly Northern and Southern Africa, as well as Madagascar, are most at risk.

The rise in occurrences of extreme temperature events will put pressure on already stretched local infrastructure. With the elderly and children most at risk from heat waves, the health care needs of the local population will increase, as will the demand for electricity for cooling. Therefore, further studies of this nature are required, to quantify the implications of African heat waves on health, crops and local economies and assist government officials in making informed decisions about climate change adaptation policies.

Lessons learned from climate adaptation strategies

In the face of weather extremes across Africa including heat waves, droughts and floods, it is just as important to carefully assess the suitability of climate change adaptation policies, argues another recently published study in the EGU open access journal Earth System Dynamics.

Take Malawi, for instance, a severely poor nation: over 74% of the population live on less than a dollar ($) a day and 90% depend on rain-fed subsistence farming to survive. According to Malawi government figures, one-third of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) comes from agriculture, forestry and fishing.  As a result, the country – and its population – is vulnerable to weather extremes, such as variability in the rainy season, prolonged dry spells and rise in the number of abnormally hot days.

A 2006 Action Aid report states that “increased droughts and floods may be exacerbating poverty levels, leaving many rural farmers trapped in a cycle of poverty and vulnerability. The situation in Malawi illustrates the drastic increases in hunger and food insecurity being caused by global warming worldwide.”

The Lake Chilwa Basin Climate Adaptation Programme (LCBCCAP) aims to enhance the resilience of rural communities surrounding Lake Chilwa to the impacts of droughts, floods and temperature extremes. The lake is a closed drainage lake (meaning it relies on rainfall to be replenished) in the south eastern corner of Malawi.

Perceptions of how climate change affects residents of the Lake Chilwa Basin. From H. Jørstad and C. Webersik, 2016 (click to enlarge).

The authors of the Earth System Dynamics study interviewed a group of 18 women (part of the LCBCCAP programme), back in early 2012, to understand how they perceived they were affected by climate change and whether the adaptation tools provided by the programme would meet their long-term needs.

The women agreed unanimously: climate in the Lake Chilwa Basin was changing. They reported that rainy seasons had become shorter and more unreliable, leading to droughts and dry spells. One of the women mentioned raising temperatures and fewer trees, due to overexploitation.

All those interviewed were part of the women fish-processing group, an initiative which sought to provide an alternative income for the women as traditional agricultural activities became unreliable due to erratic rainfall and prolonged dry seasons.

While the women’s new occupation did provide economic relief, the study authors highlight that the group’s new source of income was just as dependant on natural resources as agriculture.

Throughout the interviews, the women of the fish-processing group expressed concerns that the they thought Lake Chilwa might dry up completely by 2013.

“Yes, the lake will dry up and I will not have a business,” says Tadala, one of the women interviewed in the study. While another local woman said “Yes, lower water levels in the lake is threatening my business.”

Lake Chilwa has a long history of drying up: in the last century it has dried up nine times.  If the lake dried up completely, the women of the fish-processing group would be out of business for 2 to 4 years. Even small drops in the water level affect the abundance of fish stocks.

Lake Chilwa has a history of drying up. These Landsat images show the net reduction of lake area between October 1990 and November 2013. show changes to the extensive wetlands (bright green) that surround Lake Chilwa. These wetlands are internationally recognized as an important seasonal hosting location for migratory birds from the Northern Hemisphere. Credit: USGS

The interviews were carried out in early 2012. The previous two years had seen very limited rainfall. Not enough to sustain the lake, but the situation, at the time of the interviews wasn’t critical. However, throughout the summer of 2012 the lake water levels started falling rapidly prompting the relocation of large groups of lakeshore residents. Those dependant on fishing to support their families were most affected.

The women fish-processing group is a good demonstration of how local communities can adopt low-cost measures to adjust to climate change. At the same time, it highlights the need to assess climate adaptation strategies to take into consideration whether they too are dependent on climate-sensitive natural resources. The new research argues that diversifying people’s livelihoods might provide better long-term coping mechanisms.

By Laura Roberts Artal, EGU Communications Officer

References and resources

Ceccherini, G., Russo, S., Ameztoy, I., Marchese, A. F., and Carmona-Moreno, C.: Heat waves in Africa 1981–2015, observations and reanalysis, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 115-125, doi:10.5194/nhess-17-115-2017, 2017

Jørstad, H. and Webersik, C.: Vulnerability to climate change and adaptation strategies of local communities in Malawi: experiences of women fish-processing groups in the Lake Chilwa Basin, Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 977-989, doi:10.5194/esd-7-977-2016, 2016.

ActionAid: Climate change and smallholder farmers in Malawi: Understanding poor people’s experience in climate change adaptation, ActionAid International, 2006.

NASA: The consequences of climate change

United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): Understanding the Link Between Climate Change and Extreme Weather

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): Heat wave, a major summer killer

January GeoRoundup: the best of the Earth sciences from across the web

January Georoundup: the best of the Earth sciences from across the web

The start of the new year sees the launch of a new series here on GeoLog. Drawing inspiration from popular stories on our social media channels, as well as unique and quirky research news, this monthly column aims to bring you the best of the Earth and planetary sciences from around the web.

Major stories

One of the biggest stories of this month was the anticipated release of the average global surface temperatures for 2016. It probably wasn’t a great surprise to discover that newly released National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NASA and the UK’s MetOffice data showed 2016 was the hottest year on record. On average, temperatures last year were 0.99℃ higher than the mid-century mean. It marks the third year in a row that Earth has registered record-breaking temperatures and highlights a trend, as climate blogger, Dana Nuccitelli, explains in an article for The Guardian:

“We’re now breaking global temperature records once every three years”

This video, showing NASA global surface temperature record since 1880, illustrates the point clearly. There were no record breaking years between 1945 and 1976, but since 1980 there have been 12.

 

This month also saw the inauguration of the 45th President of the United States. A fierce climate-change denier, Donald Trump’s rise to power has many worried about the future of climate change policy at the White House. To shine a light on the realities of climate change in the face of a largely climate sceptic administration and despite the ever rising global temperatures, The Guardian dedicate 24 hours to reporting on how climate changes is affecting regions across the globe. Among the comprehensive coverage this collection of climate facts stands out.

And it turns out the fears about the newly elected administration may not have been unfounded. Earlier this week the US Department of Agriculture and other federal agencies issued a ban preventing its scientists from communicating with the press and public about their research findings; even on social media. The order has since been rescinded, but US- based scientists remain concerned. In response, the AGU has written a letter to federal agencies in the US defending the protection of scientific integrity and open communications.

Closer to home, central Italy was struck by a sequence of four earthquakes on 18th of January, with the largest registering a magnitude of 5.7. The epicentres were located close to the town of Amatrice – in a region already shaken by several strong, and sometimes devastating, earthquakes in 2016. Later that day, and following a period of very heavy snowfall, a deadly avalanche in the Apennines buried a hotel in the Grand Sasso resort area, which had also been affected by the earthquakes. Although some news reports were quick to suggest the avalanche had been triggered by the earthquakes, researchers will need more data and a more detailed analysis to make this connection.

What you might have missed

While we are on the topic of climate change, a newly published report by the  European Environmental Agency is not to be missed.

“Climate change poses increasingly severe risks for ecosystems, human health and the economy in Europe.”

The document assesses the latest trends and projections on climate change and its impacts across Europe. While the effects of increasing temperatures will be felt across the continent, Southern and south-eastern Europe is projected to be a climate change hotspot with the forecasts showing the region will bear the brunt of the impacts.

A powerful 7.9 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Papua New Guinea on 22nd January. While the USGS estimated there was a low risk to property, tsunami warnings were issued across the South Pacific. In the wake of the tremor, the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) tweeted this neat ground motion visualisation of the earthquake waves.

A study published in Nature and summarised in Eos, highlights that while overt discrimination of women in the geosciences has not been as prevalent in recent years, many female scientists are still subject to subtle and unconscious bias leading to barriers to success in the geosciences.

Five links we liked

  • NOAA’s new GOES-R satellite for weather monitoring returned its first stunning photos of planet Earth – here are six reasons why the data it will acquire matter.
  • Snow fell in the Sahara for the first time in 37 years! This photogallery shows the usually red sand dunes of the desert covered in a sprinkling of white snow.
  • Scientist at The University of Cambridge have published the first global map of flow within the Earth’s mantle, showing that the surface moves up & down “like a yo-yo”.

The EGU story

At the EGU, the highlight of the month is the number of abstracts we received from researchers wishing to present and discuss their science at the EGU 2017 General Assembly. With over 17,500 abstracts, and an improved set-up to accommodate the high number of expected participants, the conference promises to be the largest and most exciting to date. We look forward to welcoming everyone in Vienna on 23–28 April!

And don’t forget! To stay abreast of all the EGU’s events and activities, from highlighting papers published in our open access journals to providing news relating to EGU’s scientific divisions and meetings, including the General Assembly, subscribe to receive our monthly newsletter.

Shaking on Christmas Day: what we know about the 7.6 M Chile earthquake

Chile, Chiloe earthquake

While the majority of us were midway through our Christmas Day celebrations, a powerful 7.6 M earthquake struck off the western coast of the Chile. Natural hazards are not bound by time, location or festivities; an earthquake can happen at any time in any place, regardless of the significance of the day. As a result, in this earthquake prone region, raising awareness of the risk posed by natural hazards is vitally important.

The Christmas Day quake struck 42 km south west of the port city of Quellón, on the rural island of Chiloé at a depth of 34 km. Despite the powerful shaking, the tremor caused no casualties and damage to infrastructure was limited. For a time, services (such as water and power) to the southern tip of Chiloé were cut. Most affected were roads and bridges, particularly the recently renovated highway 5, which links Quellón with the fishing town of Chonchi.

The earthquake triggered a tsunami warning, leading to the evacuation of 4000 people in the coastal areas of Los Lagos Region, including the towns of Quellón and Chonchi. However, no tsunami waves were reported and the warning was lifted some 90 minutes after the temblor.

Chile’s long history of powerful earthquakes

As recently as September 2015, an 8.3 M tremor hit Illapel, causing 13 casualties, 6 missing and triggering a 4.5 m tsunami wave, with shaking felt as far as Bolivia and Argentina.

A powerful, and destructive, 8.8 M quake struck Maule in February 2010. On land, there was severe loss to infrastructure and housing, while a tsunami wave caused significant damage to coastal areas. Combined, the earthquake and tsunami resulted in the deaths of more than 500 people.

The most powerful tremor ever recorded, the estimated 9.5 M Valdivia earthquake, struck Chile in May 1960. More than 2,000 people were reported dead, a further 3,000 went missing and over 2,000,000 were left homeless. The damage in Southern Chile alone amounted to over $550 million. Tsunami waves generated by the quake struck Hawaii, Japan, the Philippines and the western USA coast, causing a further $50.5 million in damages and killing 231 people.

Damage to houses after the Valdivia earthquake, Chile

Damage to several houses in Chile after the earthquake. Credit: Pierre St. Amand – NGDC Natural Hazards Slides with Captions Header, Public Domain (distributed by Wikimedia Commons)

What causes earthquakes in Chile and what does the future hold?

Chile lies along the Pacific Ring of Fire, an area known for its high seismic and volcanic activity. Here, tectonic plates slide against each other, pull apart or converge and subduct under one another generating geologically active zones.

To understand why powerful earthquakes occur in Chile, we asked Cindy Mora Stock, a seismologist at the University of Concepción (Chile), to give us a more detailed insight into the tectonics of the region:

Earthquakes along the Chilean coast occur at the interface between the South American plate and the subducted Nazca plate. The rapid velocity between these plates (66 – 90 mm/yr) increases the potential for great earthquakes in the region, presenting on average an event of magnitude 8, or larger, every ten years. As a comparison, the Antarctic plate subducts under South American plate at a much slower rate (16 – 22 mm/yr).

The latest Mw 7.6 earthquake near Quellón on 25th of December [1], falls in the central part of the rupture zone (the portion of the fault which slipped during) of  the Valdivia earthquake – roughly 380 km south from Valdivia.

A study by Lange et al in 2007 showed a cluster of four main 4.0 < Ml < 4.4 events and their afteshocks, occurring at the interface between 12-30 km depth, beneath the western coast of Chiloe Island. Another study by Moreno et al in 2011 shows some patches at the interface that ruptured during the previous 1960 event, which are more stuck than other areas at the same interface.

Especially, computer simulations show the interface at the center part of the 1960’s rupture zone is fully locked, this means that part is “stuck”, not moving, and accumulating energy. Zones that present a high locking rate have shown to be prone areas for the nucleation of a great earthquake in the future. Although in all presented scenarios the Chiloe Island presents a high locking rate, this is not enough to state a range of time when an earthquake will occur at this patch.  Considering this, the previous seismicity, and the present Mw7.6 earthquake in the region it might seem like the interface might have ended its and it is starting to build up stress for a future earthquake.

By Laura Roberts, EGU Communications Officer, and Cindy Mora Stock, postdoctoral researcher at the University of Concepcion, Chile.

 

References and further reading

[1] Intensities of shaking felt after the 25 December earthquake (in Spanish): http://www.sismologia.cl/events/sensibles/2016/12/25-1422-28L.S201612.html

[2] Lange, D., Rietbrock, A., Haberland, E., et al.: Seismicity and geometry of the south Chilean subduction zone (41.5°S–43.5°S): Implications for controlling parameters, Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L06311, doi: 0.1029/2006GL029190, 2007

[3] Moreno, M., Melnick, D., Rosenau, M., et al.: Heterogeneous plate locking in the South–Central Chile subduction zone: Building up the next great earthquake, Earth and Planetary Research Letters, 305, 3-4, 413-424, doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2011.03.025, 2011 (Paywalled)

USGS overview of M7.6 – 42km SW of Puerto Quellon, Chile (includes shake maps, regional tectonic information and moment tensor details): http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us10007mn3#executive

Understanding Tectonic Processes Following Great Earthquakes (Eos: Earth & Space Science News)

25 December earthquake in the news:
·         Chile earthquake tsunami warning lifted (BBC News report)
·         Major quake jolts Chile tourist region on Christmas Day (Reuters in-depth news report)
·         Chile jolted by major 7.6-magnitude earthquake (Guardian News)
·         Imagenes del terremoto al sur de Chile (in Spanish: Images of the earthquake in Southern Chile – Gestión, diario de econimía y negocios de Perú)

The best of Imaggeo in 2016: in pictures

The best of Imaggeo in 2016: in pictures

Imaggeo, our open access image repository, is packed with beautiful images showcasing the best of the Earth, space and planetary sciences. Throughout the year we use the photographs submitted to the repository to illustrate our social media and blog posts.

For the past few years we’ve celebrated the end of the year by rounding-up some of the best Imaggeo images. But it’s no easy task to pick which of the featured images are the best! Instead, we turned the job over to you!  We compiled a Facebook album which included all the images we’ve used  as header images across our social media channels and on Imaggeo on Mondays blog post in 2016 an asked you to vote for your favourites.

Today’s blog post rounds-up the best 12 images of Imaggeo in 2016, as chosen by you, our readers.

Of course, these are only a few of the very special images we highlighted in 2016, but take a look at our image repository, Imaggeo, for many other spectacular geo-themed pictures, including the winning images of the 2016 Photo Contest. The competition will be running again this year, so if you’ve got a flare for photography or have managed to capture a unique field work moment, consider uploading your images to Imaggeo and entering the 2017 Photo Contest.

Blue Svartisen . Credit: Kay Helfricht (distributed via imaggeo.egu.eu)

When you think of a glacier the image you likely conjure up in your mind is that of bright white, icy body. So why do some glaciers, like Engabreen, a glacier in Norway, sometimes appear blue? Is it a trick of the light or some other phenomenon which causes this glacier to look so unusual?  You can learn all about it in this October post over on GeoLog.

 

‘There is never enough time to count all the stars that you want.’ . Credit: Vytas Huth (distributed via imaggeo.egu.eu). The centre of the Milky Way taken near Krakow am See, Germany. Some of the least light-polluted atmosphere of the northern german lowlands.

Among the winning images of our annual photo contest was a stunning night-sky panorama by Vytas Huth; we aren’t surprised it has been chosen as one of the most popular images of 2016 too. In this post, Vytas describes how he captured the image and how the remote location in Southern Germany is one of the few (in Europe) where it is still possible to, clearly, image the Milk Way.

 

“Above the foggy strip, this white arch was shining, covering one third of the visible sky in the direction of the ship's bow,” he explains. “It was a so-called white, or fog rainbow, which appears on the fog droplets, which are much smaller then rain droplets and cause different optic effects, which is a reason of its white colour.”

Gateway to the Arctic . Credit: Mikhail Varentsov (distributed via imaggeo.egu.eu)

“Above the foggy strip, this white arch was shining, covering one third of the visible sky in the direction of the ship’s bow,” describes Mikhail Varentsov, a climate and meteorology expert from the University of Moscow. “It was a so-called white, or fog rainbow, which appears on the fog droplets, which are much smaller then rain droplets and cause different optic effects, which is a reason of its white colour.” Mikhail captured the white rainbow while aboard the Akademik Tryoshnikov research vessel during its scientific cruise to study the effects of climate change on the Arctic.

 

History. Credit: Florian Fuchs (distributed via imaggeo.egu.eu)

The header image, History by Florian Fuchs, we used across our social media channels was popular with our Facebook followers, who chose it as one of the best of this year. The picture features La Tarta del Teide – a stratigraphic section through volcanic deposits of the Teide volcano on Tenerife, Canary Islands.

 

Find a new way . Credit: Wolfgang Fraedrich (distributed via imaggeo.egu.eu)

Lavas erupted into river waters, and as a result cooled very quickly, can give rise to fractures in volcanic rocks. They form prismatic structures which can be arranged in all kinds of patterns: horizontally (locally known as the woodpile), slightly arching (the harp) and in a radial configuration known as the rosette. The most common configuration is the ‘organ pile’ where vertical fractures form. These impressive structures are seen in the walls of the Gole dell ‘Alcantara, a system of gorges formed 8,000 years ago in the course of the river Alcantara in eastern Sicily.

 

Home Sweet Home . Credit: André Nuber (distributed via imaggeo.egu.eu)

Can you imagine camping atop some of the highest mountains in Europe and waking up to a view of snowcapped peaks, deep valleys and endless blue skies? This paints an idyllic picture; field work definitely takes Earth scientists to some of the most beautiful corners of the planet.

 

Isolated Storm . Credit: Peter Huber (distributed via imaggeo.egu.eu)

In November 2016 we featured this photograph of an isolated thunderstorm in the Weinviertel in April. The view is towards the Lower Carpathian Mountains and Bratislava about 50 kilometers from Vienna. Why do storms and isolated thunderstorms form? Find out in this post.

 

Glacial erratic rocks . Credit: Yuval Sadeh (distributed via imaggeo.egu.eu)

As glaciers move, they accumulate debris underneath their surface. As the vast frozen rivers advance, they carry the debris, which can range from pebble-sized rocks through to house-sized boulders, along with it. As the climate in the Yosemite region began to warm as the ice age came to an end, the glaciers slowly melted. Once all the ice was gone, the rocks and boulders, known as glacial erratics, were left behind.

 

Snow and ash in Iceland . Credit: Daniel Garcia Castellanos (distributed via imaggeo.egu.eu)

Icelandic snow-capped peaks are also sprinkled by a light dusting of volcanic ash in this photograph. Dive into this March 2016 post to find out the source of the ash and more detail about the striking peak.

 

Living Flows . Credit: Marc Girons Lopez (distributed via imaggeo.egu.eu)

There are handful true wildernesses left on the planet. Only a few, far flung corners, of the globe remain truly remote and unspoilt. To explore and experience untouched landscapes you might find yourself making the journey to the dunes in Sossuvlei in Namibia, or to the salty plain of the Salar Uyuni in Bolivia. But it’s not necessary to travel so far to discover an area where humans have, so far, left little mark. One of the last wilds is right here in Europe, in the northern territories of Sweden. This spectacular photograph of the Laitaure Delta is brought to you by Marc Girons Lopez, one of the winners of the 2016 edition of the EGU’s Photo Contest!

 


The power of ice. Credit: Romain Schläppy, (distributed via imaggeo.egu.eu).

The January 2016 header image across our social media was The Power of Ice, by Romain Schlappy. This vivid picture was captured from a helicopter by Romain Schläppy during a field trip in September 2011. You can learn more about this image by reading a previous imaggeo on mondays post.

 

Sea of Clouds over Uummannaq Fjord. Credit: Tun Jan Young (distributed via imaggeo.egu.eu)

The current header image, Sea of Clouds over Uummannaq Fjord by Tun Jan Young, is also a hit with our followers and the final most popular image from Imaggeo in 2016. A sudden change of pressure system caused clouds to form on the surface of the Uummannaq Fjord, Northwestern Greenland, shrouding the environment in mystery.

 

If you pre-register for the 2017 General Assembly (Vienna, 22 – 28 April), you can take part in our annual photo competition! From 1 February up until 1 March, every participant pre-registered for the General Assembly can submit up three original photos and one moving image related to the Earth, planetary, and space sciences in competition for free registration to next year’s General Assembly!  These can include fantastic field photos, a stunning shot of your favourite thin section, what you’ve captured out on holiday or under the electron microscope – if it’s geoscientific, it fits the bill. Find out more about how to take part at http://imaggeo.egu.eu/photo-contest/information/.

 

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