GeoLog

Soil Sciences

Geosciences Column: Africa’s vulnerability to climate change

Climate change is set to hit the nations of the Global South the hardest.

Ravaged by armed conflicts, a deep struggle with poverty, poor governance and horizontal inequality, some parts of Africa and other Global South regions are arguably the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Largely reliant on natural resources for sustenance, current and future changes in temperatures, precipitation and the intensity of some natural hazards threaten the food security, public health and agricultural output of low-income nations.

Climate change increases heat waves across Africa

Among other impacts, climate change boosts the likelihood of periods of prolonged and/or abnormally hot weather (heat waves). A new study, by researchers in Italy, reveals that in the future all African capital cities are expected to face more exceptionally hot days than the rest of the world.

The new research, published in the EGU open access journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, has found that extreme heat waves affected only about 37% of the African continent between 1981 to 2005 while in the last decade, the land area affected grew to about 60%. The frequency of heat waves also increased, from an average of 12.3 per year from 1981 to 2005 to 24.5 per year from 2006 to 2015.

By merging information about the duration and the intensity of the recorded heat waves, the authors of the study were able to quantify the heat waves using a single numerical index which they called the Heat Wave Magnitude daily (HWMId). The new measure allowed the team to compare heatwaves from different locations and times.

Geographically plotting the HWMId values for daily maximum temperatures over five-year periods from 1981 to 2015, clearly showed there has been an increase, not only in the number of heat waves and their distribution across the continent, but also an escalation in their intensity (see the figure below). The trend is particularly noticeable since 1996 and peaks between 2011 and 2015.

Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily of maximum temperature (HWMIdtx) for 5-year periods of Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) gauge network records from 1981 to 2015. The bottom-right panes show the spatial distribution of the GSOD station employed in this study. From G. Ceccherini et al. 2016 (click to enlarge).

The figure also highlights that densely populated areas, particularly Northern and Southern Africa, as well as Madagascar, are most at risk.

The rise in occurrences of extreme temperature events will put pressure on already stretched local infrastructure. With the elderly and children most at risk from heat waves, the health care needs of the local population will increase, as will the demand for electricity for cooling. Therefore, further studies of this nature are required, to quantify the implications of African heat waves on health, crops and local economies and assist government officials in making informed decisions about climate change adaptation policies.

Lessons learned from climate adaptation strategies

In the face of weather extremes across Africa including heat waves, droughts and floods, it is just as important to carefully assess the suitability of climate change adaptation policies, argues another recently published study in the EGU open access journal Earth System Dynamics.

Take Malawi, for instance, a severely poor nation: over 74% of the population live on less than a dollar ($) a day and 90% depend on rain-fed subsistence farming to survive. According to Malawi government figures, one-third of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) comes from agriculture, forestry and fishing.  As a result, the country – and its population – is vulnerable to weather extremes, such as variability in the rainy season, prolonged dry spells and rise in the number of abnormally hot days.

A 2006 Action Aid report states that “increased droughts and floods may be exacerbating poverty levels, leaving many rural farmers trapped in a cycle of poverty and vulnerability. The situation in Malawi illustrates the drastic increases in hunger and food insecurity being caused by global warming worldwide.”

The Lake Chilwa Basin Climate Adaptation Programme (LCBCCAP) aims to enhance the resilience of rural communities surrounding Lake Chilwa to the impacts of droughts, floods and temperature extremes. The lake is a closed drainage lake (meaning it relies on rainfall to be replenished) in the south eastern corner of Malawi.

Perceptions of how climate change affects residents of the Lake Chilwa Basin. From H. Jørstad and C. Webersik, 2016 (click to enlarge).

The authors of the Earth System Dynamics study interviewed a group of 18 women (part of the LCBCCAP programme), back in early 2012, to understand how they perceived they were affected by climate change and whether the adaptation tools provided by the programme would meet their long-term needs.

The women agreed unanimously: climate in the Lake Chilwa Basin was changing. They reported that rainy seasons had become shorter and more unreliable, leading to droughts and dry spells. One of the women mentioned raising temperatures and fewer trees, due to overexploitation.

All those interviewed were part of the women fish-processing group, an initiative which sought to provide an alternative income for the women as traditional agricultural activities became unreliable due to erratic rainfall and prolonged dry seasons.

While the women’s new occupation did provide economic relief, the study authors highlight that the group’s new source of income was just as dependant on natural resources as agriculture.

Throughout the interviews, the women of the fish-processing group expressed concerns that the they thought Lake Chilwa might dry up completely by 2013.

“Yes, the lake will dry up and I will not have a business,” says Tadala, one of the women interviewed in the study. While another local woman said “Yes, lower water levels in the lake is threatening my business.”

Lake Chilwa has a long history of drying up: in the last century it has dried up nine times.  If the lake dried up completely, the women of the fish-processing group would be out of business for 2 to 4 years. Even small drops in the water level affect the abundance of fish stocks.

Lake Chilwa has a history of drying up. These Landsat images show the net reduction of lake area between October 1990 and November 2013. show changes to the extensive wetlands (bright green) that surround Lake Chilwa. These wetlands are internationally recognized as an important seasonal hosting location for migratory birds from the Northern Hemisphere. Credit: USGS

The interviews were carried out in early 2012. The previous two years had seen very limited rainfall. Not enough to sustain the lake, but the situation, at the time of the interviews wasn’t critical. However, throughout the summer of 2012 the lake water levels started falling rapidly prompting the relocation of large groups of lakeshore residents. Those dependant on fishing to support their families were most affected.

The women fish-processing group is a good demonstration of how local communities can adopt low-cost measures to adjust to climate change. At the same time, it highlights the need to assess climate adaptation strategies to take into consideration whether they too are dependent on climate-sensitive natural resources. The new research argues that diversifying people’s livelihoods might provide better long-term coping mechanisms.

By Laura Roberts Artal, EGU Communications Officer

References and resources

Ceccherini, G., Russo, S., Ameztoy, I., Marchese, A. F., and Carmona-Moreno, C.: Heat waves in Africa 1981–2015, observations and reanalysis, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 115-125, doi:10.5194/nhess-17-115-2017, 2017

Jørstad, H. and Webersik, C.: Vulnerability to climate change and adaptation strategies of local communities in Malawi: experiences of women fish-processing groups in the Lake Chilwa Basin, Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 977-989, doi:10.5194/esd-7-977-2016, 2016.

ActionAid: Climate change and smallholder farmers in Malawi: Understanding poor people’s experience in climate change adaptation, ActionAid International, 2006.

NASA: The consequences of climate change

United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): Understanding the Link Between Climate Change and Extreme Weather

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): Heat wave, a major summer killer

Imaggeo on Mondays: Life on bare lava

Life on bare lava

There are plenty of hostile habitats across the globe but some flora and fauna species are resourceful enough to adapt and make extreme environments their home. From heat-loving ants of the Sahara to microbes living in the light-deprived ocean depths, through to beatles who brave the bitterly cold Alaskan winter, there are numerous examples of plants, animals and bugs who strive in environments often considered too challenging to harbour life. In today’s post, brought to you by geomorphologist Katja Laute, we feature Vinagrerilla roja, a plant species adept at making difficult terrains its home.

Vinagrerilla roja (Rumex vesicarius) / the Canary Island bladderdock is one of the most successful endemic plants for colonizing new territory in arid and volcanic areas. The photo was taken on the crater rim of the volcano Montana Bermeja (157 m asl.), located at the northernmost edge of the volcanic island La Graciosa. The island was formed by the Canary hotspot and is today part of the protected Chinijo Archipelago Natural Park which shelters endemic and highly endangered species of the Canary Islands.

The volcano Montana Bermeja is composed of red lapilli (pea to walnut-sized fragments ejected during an eruption) which seems to impede any kind of life. But as the photo shows, the bladderdock is actively growing in this apparently hostile environment. That plant life emerges from such a barren and rough volcanic environment seems almost impossible.

Only very few pioneer species succeed and manage to survive in such harsh environments with little to no soil and under an almost desertic climate. Being located on the northern side of the crater rim enables the bladderdock to capture moisture out of the reoccurring Atlantic winds. As these pioneer species grow, their dead leaves and roots will enrich the soil with organic content providing the base for a chain of ecological succession.

By Katja Laute, researcher at IUEM, Brest, France

If you pre-register for the 2017 General Assembly (Vienna, 22 – 28 April), you can take part in our annual photo competition! From 1 February up until 1 March, every participant pre-registered for the General Assembly can submit up three original photos and one moving image related to the Earth, planetary, and space sciences in competition for free registration to next year’s General Assembly!  These can include fantastic field photos, a stunning shot of your favourite thin section, what you’ve captured out on holiday or under the electron microscope – if it’s geoscientific, it fits the bill. Find out more about how to take part at http://imaggeo.egu.eu/photo-contest/information/.

Imaggeo on Mondays: littoral rainforests

Littoral rainforests

Seagull lunch. Credit: Alicia Morugán (distributed via imaggeo.egu.eu).

Making room for growing populations, and the resources they demand, comes at the cost of precious natural environments. Rainforests, globally, are under threat from farming, logging and ever expanding cities. It is reported that if current rates of exploitation continue, the world’s rainforests could be lost within the next century.

Like almost anything else, rainforests come in all shapes and sizes. Typically, rainforests are depicted as lush, jungle-like concentrations of tall trees characterised by heavy rainfalls. But, perhaps unexpectedly, stretches of the coastline in eastern Australian are also peppered by rainforest. Because of their proximity to the ocean, these closed-canopy forests – where  approximately 70% of the sky obscured by tree leaves and limbs – are known as littoral rainforests.

Much like their equatorial cousins, Australian littoral rainforests are under threat. Large swathes of forest have been destroyed for/by agriculture, animal browsing/grazing, fire, mining or housing. Invasive species and weeds pose a particular danger to the forests too.

Today’s featured image was taken from “The Brunswick Heads Nature Reserve, a protected nature reserve located in the Northern Rivers region of New South Wales, Australia. The 221-hectare (550-acre) reserve is situated near Brunswick Heads and contains an intact segment of littoral rainforest,” writes Alicia Morugán, author of the photograph.

The reserve is home to many critically endangered rainforest plants that are either at the southern limit of their distribution or not found in many other places in New South Wales, as well as many threatened animal species. Current conservation efforts center around monitoring to identify key threats to the precious ecosystems, as well as protecting known sites.

 

If you pre-register for the 2017 General Assembly (Vienna, 22 – 28 April), you can take part in our annual photo competition! From 1 February up until 1 March, every participant pre-registered for the General Assembly can submit up three original photos and one moving image related to the Earth, planetary, and space sciences in competition for free registration to next year’s General Assembly!  These can include fantastic field photos, a stunning shot of your favourite thin section, what you’ve captured out on holiday or under the electron microscope – if it’s geoscientific, it fits the bill. Find out more about how to take part at http://imaggeo.egu.eu/photo-contest/information/.

 

Looking back at the EGU Blogs in 2016: a competition

Looking back at the EGU Blogs in 2016: a competition

The past 12 months has seen an impressive 360 posts published across the EGU’s official blog, GeoLog, as well as the network and division blogs. From a lighthearted Aprils Fools’ Day post featuring an extreme chromatic phenomenon (otherwise known as FIB); through to how climate change is affecting mountain plant’s sex ratios; features on natural hazard events throughout the year and children’s disarming ability to ask really simple questions that demand straightforward answers, 2016 has been packed full of exciting, insightful and informative blog posts.

EGU Best Blog Post of 2016 Competition

To celebrate the excellent display of science writing across the network and division blogs, we are launching the EGU Blogs competition.

From now until Monday 16th January, we invite you, the EGU Blogs readers, to vote for your favourite post of 2016. Take a look at the poll below, click on each post to read it in full, and cast your vote for the one you think deserves the accolade of best post of 2016. The post with the most votes by will be crowned the winner.

New in 2016

Not only have the blogs seen some great writing throughout the year, they’ve also continued to keep readers up to date with news and information relevant to each of our scientific divisions.

With the addition of WaterUnderground, the network blogs now feature a groundwater nerd blog written by a global collective of hydrogeologic researchers. The new blog is for water resource professionals, academics and anyone interested in groundwater, research, teaching and supervision. Excitingly, it is also the first blog hosted jointly by the EGU Blogs and the AGU blogosphere.

The portfolio of division blogs was also expanded, with the addition of the Tectonics and Structural Geology (TS), Planetary and Solar System Sciences(PS) and Earth and Space Science Informatics (ESSI) blogs back in July. Since then they’ve featured posts on big data, a regular feature showcasing the variety of research methods used in tectonics and structural geology and research from the now iconic Rosetta Mission.

Fissure eruption at Bardabunga in 2014. Photo by Ragnar Th. Sigurdsson, as featured on the TS Blog.

Get involved

Are you a budding science writer, or want to try your hand at science communication? All the EGU Blogs, from GeoLog (the official EGU blog), through to the network and division blogs, welcome guest contributions from scientists, students and professionals in the Earth, planetary and space sciences.

It couldn’t be easier to get involved. Decide what you’d like to write about, find the blog that is the best fit for your post and contact the blog editor – you can find all editor details on the individual blog pages. If in doubt, you can submit your idea for a post via the Submit a Post page on GeoLog, or email the EGU Communications Officer, Laura Roberts, who can help with initial enquiries and introduce you to individual blog editors.

Don’t forget to a look at the blog pages for a flavour of the content you can expect from the new, and existing, blogs in 2017. The blogs are also a great place to learn about new opportunities, exciting fields of research and keep up to date with news relating to the upcoming 2017 General Assembly.

 

Editor’s note on the EGU Best Blog Post of 2016 Competition: The winning post will be that with the most votes on 15th January 2017. The winner will be announced on GeoLog shortly after voting closes. The winning post will take home an EGU goodie bag, as well as a book of the winners choice from the EGU library (there are up to 4 goodie bags and books available per blog. These are available for the blog editor(s) – where the winning post belongs to a multi-editor blog, and for the blog post author – where the author is a regular contributor or guest author and not the blog editor). In addition, a banner announcing the blog as the winner of the competition will be displayed on the blog’s landing page throughout 2017.

Follow

Get every new post on this blog delivered to your Inbox.

Join other followers: